This is a big week for fantasy baseball. There have been many involved calls between Sam Antonacci, Noah Schultz, JR Ritchie, Payton Tolle, and Connor Prielipp. Sorting through these players, as well as the hot starters/recent streaks this season is difficult.
I am always an advocate of striking while the iron is hot with hopes. You take them ASAP, then let them go if they struggle or a better player comes along and/or leaves. The beauty of fantasy baseball is the ebbs and flows of the season. Unfortunately, we’re a month into the season, and a few starters are the biggest, most trusted names in baseball.
Some of them are in a valid point of decline, others are worth holding on to for at least another month. If you play in shallower formats that feature 10 or fewer teams, you probably have a more significant fantasy than a deeper league. Maybe he wants to cut Rafael Devers or Roman Anthony! Don’t do it. Hold on tight to your hips and be patient. There will be a few prospects emerging throughout the season, and cutting bait now on a (mythical) star will likely burn you sooner rather than later.
1B/2B Ildemaro Vargas (ARI)
The 34-year-old striker is having the best start to his career. Ildemaro Vargas has five HR, 14 runs, 16 RBI, and a .357/.375/.671 slash line through 73 plate appearances.
Vargas is not only productive on the upside, but his metrics below are impressive. He ranks 18th in professional xwOBA, while his expected slugging percentage is in the 94th percentile and his expected batting average is in the 100th percentile!
Unfortunately, it’s hard to believe that this tenth-year breakout will last a full season. Vargas’ pass rush rate is in the sixth percentile, and his average exit velocity is in the 22nd percentile. He’s the story of a great first season, but beating a ten-year veteran is a tall order for any great player.
Taking Vargas for a few weeks to ride the wave is fine. Don’t expect a plug-and-play launcher this summer.
FICTION
1B/3B Coby Mayo (BAL)
Coby Mayo is on the rise this week. Since April 20, Mayo has produced three HRs and a double, with four runs and seven RBIs in 15 PA. He is coming off a cold start to the season, where he slashed .148/.258/.185 from March 26th to April 19th.
Mayo is the star forward his legendary bosses have long dreamed of chasing. There is reason to be optimistic about Mayo beyond this week. He’s sporting a .222 BABIP so far, and his walk rate has hit 10.4%.
Unfortunately, his strikeout rate is still a concern at 27.3% and the Orioles are preparing for 3B Jordan Westburg to return in the coming weeks. Along with Westburg, Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad will return to the lineup soon. There isn’t much room for Mayo in the Orioles’ everyday lineup, unless his hot streak gets even hotter.
Mayo’s is running a 113 wRC+ vs LHP while posting a measly 58 vs RHP. He has been nothing but the team’s shortstop bat all season.
FICTION
1B/3B Miguel Vargas (CWS)
The White Sox offense is white hot…compared to years past. They’re hovering around league average (18th in team wRC+), in part because of the early jump Dodgers top prospect Miguel Vargas is making this season.
Vargas is slashing .215/.345/.441 through 26 games with a 121 wRC+, five HR, and five SB. His 15% walk rate is higher than his 14.2% strikeout rate, and his .205 BABIP is due to significant regression. His bat is in the middle of the batting order improved between Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery. This isn’t the greatest offense, but it’s an improved one that could produce a few legendary hitters.
THE TRUTH
3B Josh Jung (TEX)
Josh Jung looks like 2023 Josh Jung again. Actually, you’re even better.
2023
.266/.315/.467
5.8% BB / 29.3% K
.334 wOBA / .334 xwOBA
2026
.301/.359/.518
7.6% BB / 17.4% K
.383 wOBA / .343 xwOBA
This is not only a healthy Josh Jung, but a very patient Josh Jung. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, while his walk rate is the highest. His streak of rare injuries is concerning, but if he hits his xwOBA instead of his wOBA over the course of the season, he’s a must-have player in 12+ fantasy leagues.
THE TRUTH
Carlos Cortes (ATH)
The hottest person in the world this week is Carlos Cortes. He has nine hits in 19 PA, with three HRs and a 1.000 slugging percentage. Not only is Cortes productive, but he backs up his stats with some pretty hot advanced metrics.
He ranks fifth in qualified xwOBA this season and sixth in wOBA. He is in the top two percent in batting average and slugging. Also, his 6.5% hit rate is in the 99th percentile! This kind of elite start to the season is hard to ignore.
Cortes is in a strong league as a left-handed hitter, but he always hits third against righties. This position in his line-up, mixed with his presence in a talented offense that plays in one friendly home environment, makes him a valuable option for 12+ team games. Even with Brent Rooker coming back from the injured list, Cortes should continue to play regularly in the top five of the lineup.
THE TRUTH
SP JR Ritchie (ATL)
The Braves called up Ritchie immediately after sending Didier Fuentes down. They broke the stick in half and asked their two top prospects to fight to the death when they started the next game. Ritchie came away with the win after a perfect seven strikeout, two earned run, 1.00 WHIP start against the Nationals.
This start will keep Ritchie in the rotation for at least a few more shows that are real, even with Spencer Strider coming back next week. The Braves are desperate for a strong rotation after losing Strider and Spencer Schwellenback for extended periods after spring training.
While this start for Ritchie has been excellent, there are still concerns with his profile, mostly related to his minor league production. Ritchie’s 0.99 ERA in Triple-A this season looks good, but it’s backed up by a 4.25 xFIP and 14% K-BB. His BB hasn’t exceeded 15% in Double-A or Triple-A. The only time he was able to crack 20% was in Single-A.
Ritchie has good stuff, a deep arsenal, and is capable of producing a heavy number of ground balls, but this isn’t an amazing pitching prospect yet. That first start was probably a fugazi, and he should be considered a disseminator of evil crimes. If Didier Fuentes gets another chance in the rotation, I would expect him to beat Ritchie for a long time.
FICTION
SP/RP Chase Dollarer (COL)
The Rockies having a potential ace scares me. What year is it, and what world do we live in??
Chase Dollander is leading the offense this season. He has a 2.88 ERA supported by a 2.79 xERA, 3.02 xFIP, and a 2.47 SIERA. This is not an outline; you are high. The 2023 top 10 pick has always been talented. However, fears that Coors Field would lower his profile were valid.
Dollander has two home starts this year and has given up just two runs and two walks while striking out 15 in 10 1/3 IP. These starts came against the Padres and Phillies, two of the league’s average offenses against RHP. The only real caveat to Dollarder and his Coors tests is that these startups don’t come in the summer when Coors is at its best.
Furthermore, he hasn’t “started” the game yet. It’s hard to imagine he’ll be as good as teams loading up on lefties. Dollander has an extreme split between RHH and LHH.
competes with RHH
34.4% K-BB
1.68 xFIP
0.80 OFFER
vs LHP
7.5% K-BB
5.56 xFIP
1.38 CHICKEN
This is not someone I want to trust for the rest of the season, except for this great start to 2026.
FICTION
RP Louie Varland (TOR)
The Blue Jays are next to them. Louie Varland couldn’t cut it as a starter, but he rose to the top among pitchers.
Varland has a 2.52 ERA, 3.56 xERA, 2.85 xFIP, and 2.87 SIERA since 2025 as a full-time reliever in 85 2/3 IP. He averages two ground balls per fly ball, while posting an excellent 20.2% K-BB. Varland has improved a lot this year and has rightly been installed as the de facto closer after Jeff Hoffman’s start to the season.
Varland struggled in his last chance to close the game on Saturday, but was able to get the save and limit the damage by allowing one run. While this outing won’t hurt his offense, he has to walk a fine line considering that most of Hoffman’s struggles are due to bad luck.
Hoffman hasn’t been better than Varland this season, but his 3.35 xERA, 1.68 xFIP, and 1.94 SIERA are impressive. His ridiculous .609 BABIP and 33.3% HR/FB rate are responsible for his 7.59 ERA thus far. Fortunately, for Varland, this game is based on results, and his results are excellent. If Varland continues to shine, this job should remain his, at least in the starting role.
THE TRUTH
