The 2025-26 offseason hasn’t had a defining blockbuster like Kyle Tucker trade in 2024-25 or Juan Soto to face the winter ahead. However, what the commercial market lacked in high quality, it made up for in quantity, despite the lack of large name-changing teams. The Cardinals were undoubtedly top sellers, dealing far and wide Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Sonny Grayagain Wilson Contreraswhile the Red Sox were one of the more active buyers, picking up Gray and Contreras, as well Caleb Durbin again Johan Oviedo. It’s too early to crown any of the season’s trade winners, but so far, Contreras looks to be one of the highlights of the winter. Things aren’t going too well for the Red Sox right now, but adding a slugging first baseman seems like one thing they’ve done right.
Through 50 games, Contreras is hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 33 RBI. His .899 OPS, .393 wOBA, and 148 wRC+ all put him among the top 10 AL professional hitters. His .397 projected wOBA ranks fifth, second only Jordan Alvarez, Aaron is the judge, Mike Troutagain Ben Rice. Fittingly, his glove also looked sharp in his second season at first. In 2025, he finished with -1 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and +4 Fielding Run Value (FRV). This year, he has +3 DRS and +4 FRV in less than half as many innings. The net result is 2.0 Wins Over Replacement, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s All-Star-caliber production, even though Rice’s first basemen, Nick Kurtzagain Munetaka Murakami will give Contreras tough competition when it comes to making this summer’s AL All-Star squad.
All-Star or not, there’s no overstating how important Contreras has been to the Red Sox’s shaky offense. He leads the team in home runs, RBI, Win Probability Added, OPS, wRC+, and fWAR. Red Sox Nation caught its collective breath earlier this month there Nick Martinez hit Contreras in the hand with a fastball, knocking him out of the game. Fortunately, Contreras avoided any serious injuries. Conversely, he’s hit .349 with a 1.061 OPS and 190 wRC+ in 11 games since. It’s safe to say his hand feels good.
Contreras has never played more than 138 games in a season or taken more than 563 trips to the plate. This is because he used to catch and because he found himself on the injured list 10 times in the first 10 years of his career. This year, he and the Red Sox hope he can avoid the IL entirely for the first time in a full season since 2018. If he can, he has a chance to surpass his previous career in almost every statistical category, including home runs, runs scored, and RBI. Yes, the ratio statistics are amazing too; his OPS, wRC+, and xwOBA would also be career bests. If Contreras continues at this pace, he will finish just over 6.0 Wins Above Replacement, according to models by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That would be far and away the highest total of his major league career.
Most players never had the right to say they were at their best when they were in their thirties. Indeed, over the past decade, only three position players have had a six-win season at age 34 or older, either by fWAR or bWAR: Paul Goldschmidt in 2022, Brandon Crawford in 2021, again Adrian Beltré in 2016. Meanwhile, Crawford is the only hitter in the 21st century to have his first six-win season at age 34 or older. Contreras hopes to join him.
Admittedly, it is risky to add production to 50 games in a full season. Contreras has six wins in his last 50 games, but 10 seasons of 1,000-plus games have been played before this year. maybe representative of his true talent. Besides, the aging curve tells us that he is more likely to be worse at age 34 than better. However, it’s very exciting to be optimistic, and there are some good reasons to believe that Contreras can keep this up.
First of all, he doesn’t hold back. Hopefully that should help him stay strong and healthy throughout the season. Subtle data is also incredibly promising. In the first nine years of his career, Contreras had a 13.3% whiff rate (per Statcast). Then in 2025, he increased his breathing rate to about 20%. It was the first time in his career that he hit balls in the air on his pull side at a better than average rate. This season, his strikeout rate has risen again. A little more than a quarter of all his balls in play were caught in the air.
Here’s why it’s important. A league-average wOBA on balls in play usually hovers around .360 to .370. If those balls in play are pulled into the air, that wOBA rises into the .730 to .740 range. Furthermore, Contreras has been particularly successful with this type of communication. His .874 career wOBA on fly balls puts him in the 92nd percentile of the league. Most hitters will thrive if they get the ball in the air regularly, and Contreras can benefit more than most. His best numbers so far in 2026 are proof.
What makes this development so encouraging for Contreras is that his swing speed is still at a high level. Generally, bat speed begins to decline rapidly when a player reaches his thirties. Older hitters sometimes increase their draw rate, which temporarily helps cover their declining power. That’s not what happened to Contreras, at least not in any significant way. His average bat speed on no-pull contact is slightly lower, though still above league average. Meanwhile, his bat speed in a drawn-out contract is slightly higher than it was in May of last year (or the year before). Because he’s pulling more of his overall contact, his swing speed is roughly the same as it was two years ago. Out of 218 professional bowlers, only 14 have a faster average swing speed than Contreras. He may be 34, but he swings like a much younger guy.
Simply put, there is no question that Contreras has earned his success so far. He may not continue to hit this level for the next four months, but he has given himself a solid start. As long as he stays healthy, there’s a good chance this could end up being the best season of an already successful career.
Photos courtesy of Bob DeChiara and Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
