OK, we now have 40% more data than we had last week when I looked at the early boom and bust season. There were player requests in the comments and some (100% justified) about my blasting Reverse Jinxes really work! It’s time to revisit this and look at other booms and busts. The stats are due on Saturday, and the EAV is “Earned Auction Value” according to the Razzball Player Estimator.
Early Season Booms and Why Don’t I Have More of These Guys?
Jordan Walker
.314, 6 HR, 12 Runs, 13 RBI, $42.4 EAV
One thing was certain going into 2026; it was a make or break season for the once mega prospect. The glide path to playing time was perfectly clear, Walker would get a full run for the first time since his freshman year. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he made his MLB debut in 2023 in his age-21 season, and is still short of his 24th birthday. Oh, again he went to Driveline
He shortened his swing and adjusted his tilt, and the tweaks have worked in a big way so far. He is hitting .314/.386/.706. He has as many people this year as he had at 396 PA’s in 2025. Is it sustainable? Who knows, but under the hood, it’s very encouraging. Hard swings have never been a problem for Walker, as he had a .99 Bat Speed in 2025 and slightly increased it in 2026. What he was able to do was touch a shade better (29.8% K% vs. 31.8%, 31.7% Whiff%) while improving his 35 field quality. He’s hitting it at an Ideal Attack Angle 62.8% of the time now compared to 47.7% in 2025, and his Squared Up% has jumped from 18.1% (2nd percentile) to 23.9% (48th percentile). Most impressively, his LA Sweet Spot% jumped from 29% (5th percentile) to 47.1% (96th percentile).
It’s still early days, but he has improved his glove so far. It’s been a while now, but he was an upcoming 3rd baseman, and the Cards had Nolan Arenado there and Paul Goldschmidt at 1st and Walker had to move to OF when he moved up. And the fix was pretty stoned as he’s had a bad value glove ever since. Until this year, when he is now an 82nd percentile player according to Statcast.
That is neither here nor there. Fielding is only important to us if it affects PT, and Walker will stay in the field if this is true or not. Obviously he won’t be able to keep up this breakneck pace, but it’s very encouraging so far, and there’s nothing under the hood to suggest it’s a fluke.
Cam Smith
.302, 3 HR, 10 Runs, 8 RBI, 3 Steals $26.3 EAV
It’s another big 3B prospect who got bumped by an OF so he could stick with the big club. In Smith’s case, the Astros acquired him in the Kyle Tucker trade in 2025, and he had a great spring and was forced up to the majors after 134 minor league PA’s in 2024, no higher than AA. He wasn’t bad in 2025 as he had a 90 wRC+ with an average glove in a position he had never played before. But for Fantasy purposes, he did very little, hitting .236 with 9 homers and 8 steals in 496 PAs. It was unclear when he would get the full MLB gig in 2026 or make the team in camp.
Well, he has come out of the gate with a ..302/.393/.547 slash in his first 62 PAs while playing every day.
How did you do it? He hit his Bat Speed 3.3 MPH, the most in MLB among professional hitters, while improving his K% from 27.8% to 24.8%. It translates to more pop as he has seen EV go from 87.9 to 90.1 and HardHit% from 40.8% to 52.6%. These are real solid benefits from a great idea. Of course you’re going to back off a little bit, but I’m going to be totally into what we’re seeing.
Oneil Cruz
.345 4 HR, 10 Runs, 12 RBI, 5 Steals $3 EAV
I’m not sure Cruz should be on this list, as he was very special at first, and had a 20 homer 38 steal season in 2025. But there were horrendous holes over his often poor defense and carelessness in CF, and his poor body language to go along with it. And oh yeah, he had a 32% K% and a .200 BA. He wasn’t even starting against lefties as he had a career wRC+ of 67. I lived a kilometer away.
So it’s still early despite what I said above, but he’s pitching every day and has 8 hits in his first 16 ABs against southpaws, and three of those hits were home runs. Maybe you made some really useful changes? He’s dropped his bat speed a shade from 78.8 to 78 (he’s still in the 99th percentile), and he’s maintained his fearsome 95.9 EV and 57.9% HardHit% while lowering his K to 28.3%. I’m not sure he can keep that up, though, as his Whiff% has increased from 34% to 39.6% (4th percentile)
He’s obviously not going to hit .345 or anything close to that. But for sure, he can hit .245 and perform well enough against lefties to be out of the mix. And he leads the way against righties in front of the Pirates’ better players. So who knows, it could be a big fantasy.
Boom That Was Bust This Last Week
James Wood
.522, 3 HR, 8 Runs, 10 RBI, 1 Steal since April 5
He now has an EAV of $32.1 on the season, 5th best among outfielders. Those K I was so worried about? He had a 13.8% K% last week. The only lesson is that it’s REALLY early, and the buses I’m going to highlight can and probably will change their seasons in a heartbeat. In all fairness, Wood and his big K problem from last season and including spring training. I hope you have fixed it.
Me and Busts Still Don’t Know What I Was Thinking
Byron Buxton
.182, 0 HR, 1 RBI 0 Steals -11.8 EAV
It’s usually injuries that have sidelined Buxon, but not so far, as he’s only missed two games, one of which is a rest day today (Sunday). It’s actually kind of confusing so far, since his communication skills haven’t changed yet. His bat speed dropped from 75 to 73.5, and the quality of his contact just increased. EV dropped from 92.5 to 88.7, and his Squared Up% is only 17.9% (14th percentile). His LA is an absurdly high 30.8, which I think might lead to the occasional barrel but he’s bad for Avg.
He’s a proven star, and he’s 32 now, an age you’d expect maybe a bit of a drop, but not this. I just roll with the one I have. I suspect it is a very slow start.
Julio Rodriguez
.172, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 Steals -$9.9 EAV
Don’t we face this every year? That’s why I skipped Julio last week.
However, he had 3 homers, 4 homers, and 12 runs during this time in 2025. So it’s not like that every year. But he has a history of picking it up as the year goes on. He only has a career wRC+ of 86 in March/April, but no wRC+ below 106 (June) in any other month. His career first half wRC+ is 111, vs. 154 in the second halves
Yes, it’s pretty bad so far, and it’s not just bad luck, his skills look pretty bad, too, across the board. But there is nothing you can do but ride this.
