“Fact or Fiction” aside for a moment, what the hell is going on with the closers this year?? Unless your name is Mason Miller, every RP drafted can be saved by injury or blow up legendary ratings every week. Jeff Hoffman is the latest bad guy to piss off all his bosses with another hit game (at least it wasn’t a save opportunity?).
I wrote Jhoan Duran over KYLE SCHWARBER in the Main Event league on the NFBC website and I’m kicking myself right now. No sane league would ever make such a move, but the lack of position and the demand for spec closers on waivers made it necessary. I was even proven right in the draft with Cade Smith, Andres Munoz, and David Bednar selected between my 2nd round and 3rd round. Luckily, I ended up with the ever-faithful Hunter Brown as a reward for my diligence…yippee.
Anyway, here’s this week’s roundup of old friends, new friends, and other players out of left field who might have something to do with the dream in 2026.
UC Carson Kelly (CHC)
Carson Kelly is kicking the hell out of baseballs to start the 2026 season. He is 31st in wOBA and 16th in xwOBA with the eighth-highest batting average and the fifth-highest average exit velocity. Kelly has more walks than hits so far, with two HRs, nine runs, and 10 RBI.
Sadly, Kelly did as well, if not better, to start the 2025 MLB season! He was among the expected leaders in production in the first month after hitting seven HR and hitting .360 between March and April. This led to an absurd 257 wRC+ this season, with twice as many walks as hits, 13 runs, and 21 RBI.
He posted these numbers in 67 PA, then hit 10 HR over his next 354 PA over the course of the season, while hitting .232/.299/.364. His start this year has pushed him to a 176 wRC+.
Carson Kelly is a good catcher, but he is just that in his career. Ride the wave if you need a spot starter at C, but we’ve seen this type of early-season production fade before.
FICTION
1B Dominic Smith (ATL)
The Braves put in a bid for Dom Smith. He’s on fire in 16 games, with four HRs, 10 runs, 16 RBI, and a .362/.380/.660 slash line. Smith hasn’t hit this well since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He posted a .316/.377/.616 line that year with 10 HR, 27 runs, and 42 RBIs through 50 games.
Smith was the first prospect to play between 2019 and 2020, but he has been downgraded since then. The Braves are known for having the “devil’s magic” that makes hitters right, and he may be playing. This is the best offense Smith has ever been a part of, and the best home park to hit.
Smith is among the top 20 hitters in xwOBA and top 10 in wOBA. We don’t know if he will carry this success throughout the season, but we have seen him hit like this before. Smith deserves a ride in 12+ team leagues that need a spark over the next few weeks, if not months.
TRUE (for now)
2B/Jeremiah Jackson (BAL)
No Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O’Neill, and Adley Rutschman? No problem. Jeremiah Jackson has made the most of his recent power play with five HRs, six runs, and 13 RBI since April 10.
The former second-round pick is playing for his third organization since 2023, but the Orioles are the only team that has called him up to the majors (2025). Jackson’s five HRs per week are impressive, but even more so is that he can’t go 65 plate appearances this year.
He’s not a special hitter, and he doesn’t make enough contact to negate his plate alignment issue. This hot food is just a hot chain. He will likely miss significant playing time in the coming weeks as Baltimore gets healthier and his production declines.
FICTION
UT Marcell Ozuna (PIT)
Pirates fans all over Pittsburgh expressed great relief as their $12 million investment in Marcell Ozuna finally paid off. His start to the season has been horrific. He slashed .051/.159/.051 from March 26 to April 11 in 44 plate appearances. He had more walks than hits this season, with no more hits.
Still, Ozuna has two HRs in the last three games, with three multi-hit games since Monday. His plate discipline surrounds his work ethic, and this Pirates offense is even better than expected (7th in wRC+).
Despite this recent success, Ozuna’s wRC+ has averaged 55 so far, and his walk rate is still not high. Go on, don’t rush to star Ozuna in your fantasy app and see if he can keep this hot streak going for a few more games. No need to pick him up outside of the 15+ team leagues.
FICTION-ish
SP Landen Roupp (SF)
Injuries derailed Roupp’s 2025 season. Between elbow inflammation and a nagging knee injury, he made just 22 starts in what was supposed to be his first full MLB season. Roupp was successful in his 106 2/3rd IP, with a modest 3.80 ERA, 4.25 xERA, 4.10 xFIP, and 4.36 SIERA; a solid time, all things considered.
With a full season off to get healthy, Roupp has found his stride. He has a stellar 2.38 ERA through four starts this season and excellent peripherals. Roupp’s xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all in the top 20 among professional starters. He is cooking and can continue this success throughout the season.
Although he was a bit older in the minors at each level, he dominated from A-Ball to Triple-A. Roupp has a four-pitch mix with an elite curveball and improved command. His strikeout rate isn’t high, but he’s doing well with a 18.9% K-BB this year.
THE TRUTH
SP Bryce Elder (ATL)
Greg Maddux reportedly fixed Bryce Elder. Maddux questioned Elder as a “swing-and-miss” pitcher in MLB.com’s Mark Bowman report, and this puts Elder squarely.
Still, Elder’s strikeout rate is a career-high 25.3% this season, while his walk rate is the same as in 2024 and 2025. There is no increase in driving speed for Elder so far. It achieves this by adding a cutter to its cache and reducing sink usage by half.
With this adjusted pitch mix, Elder is second in baseball with a 0.77 ERA and seventh in xERA. His 3.45 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA suggest more regression (obviously), but nothing high enough for the senior to be considered a full-on slugger. There’s something to like about the Elder, though benching him in tight matchups will always be wise.
He’s had a mediocre run since his first full season in 2023, yet he’s a modern horse with a big change in a good team that could help him accumulate.
TRUE (for now)
SP Michael Soroka (ARI)
Soroka is a former first baseman who has yet to pitch at least 100 MLB innings since his debut season in 2019. Two achilles tears cut short a few seasons, and shoulder and arm problems have plagued him since 2023.
Still, Soroka estimates his highest fastball velocity to start 2026, while owning a top-10 K-BB among professional starters. He is one of 15 starters this season with at least a 30% strikeout rate. This is an incredible development and the story of a first round pick. He is only 28 years old, but it has felt like his career has been over many times in recent years.
Unfortunately, his first success this season was not to last. Despite the many stellar peripherals driven by his elite K-BB, Soroka gives up consistent solid contact when hitters connect. His 4.92 xERA is scary and reminiscent of another Diamondbacks starter, Brandon Pfaadt. Soroka is better than Pfaadt, but Pfaadt did the same thing last year, where he had a good K-BB, but he got hit so hard that he couldn’t avoid quitting often.
Unless Soroka makes significant changes to attract more soft connections, this early success is unsustainable.
FICTION
RP Enyel de los Santos (HOU)
Bryan Abreu can’t find a strike zone (and his velocity is down), Josh Hader is out for at least another month, and Bryan King is very important as the Astros’ current firefighter. This led to veteran tourney Enyel de los Santos making two saves in the last five days.
EDLS is not a good thing to relieve. His career 4.37 ERA is supported by a 4.38 xERA, 4.19 xFIP, and a 3.81 SIERA. He’s average, but his start in 2026 is notable. EDLS holds a 1.35 ERA, 1.39 xERA, 3.87 xFIP, and 3.23 SIERA through six outings.
There aren’t many notable changes in his profile at the start of the season. His velocity is back, but his strikeout rate is around his career average. EDLS’ biggest difference is how much of a fly-ball pitcher he still is. His 55.6% rate is in the top-30 of all pitchers with at least one innings pitched and a significant jump from his 40.4% career rate.
Astros turn EDLS into a “good” variation of Cristian Javier. This probably doesn’t work for most teams, but it does work for them…at least until Josh Hader returns.
TRUE (for now)
