Back in 2023, the citizens of Planet Earth rubbed their eye boogers, stood up, stretched, and touched the grass as the World Health Organization officially declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s playing CivilizationI was laughing when I lost a population and got a “Global Pandemic” notification – “This shit makes no sense!,” I shouted to my imaginary friend over my shoulder. Taylor Swift was named TIME’s Person of the Year, the Texas Rangers won their first World Series, and AI was beginning to sweep across the globe like a swarm of locusts. BUT, the two most important events of that year were Twitter switching to X and Son’s tweets Ezequiel Duran – One Man’s Trash: Duran is Hungry Like a Wolf.
Since I’m well aware that you’re reading the link above so Gray and I can earn $.000000000001 per click, I’ll avoid the usual overview I do for multiplayer.
In that 2023 season, Duran finished with 14 home runs, 55 runs scored, 46 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 439 plate appearances. The walk rate was 5.2%, the strikeout rate was 27.3%, and the ISO was .167. The slash was .276/.324/.443 but was fueled by a .358 BABIP.
I listed Duran’s OMT on May 11, 2023. Until then, Duran had accumulated 109 plate appearances and slashed .293/.327/.455 with a .162 ISO. The walk rate was 1%, the strikeout rate was 26%, and the BABIP was .368. From that point until the end of the season, Duran hit .267/.320/.434 with a .167 ISO. The walk rate was 6.4%, the strikeout rate was 28%, and the BABIP was .351. He hit 10 home runs, scored 42 runs, drove in 30 runs, and stole six bases.
In the title, I expected a decline, but Duran was able to maintain a high BABIP and a high ISO.
That seems somewhat related because Duran has been hot lately, slashing .345/.429/.655 with a .303 ISO in 35 plate appearances since May 4th. The walk rate is 14.3%, the strikeout rate is 25.7%, and the BABIP is .421.
Before that day, Duran slashed .275/.342/.406 with a .130 ISO. The walk rate was 9.1%, the strikeout rate was 18.2%, and the BABIP was .333.
Why did I choose the seemingly random date of May 4th? That’s when Josh Smith suffered a glute strain and was placed on the 10-day injured list. Ezequiel Duran played regularly, mostly at second base with a few games in the outfield. More importantly, though, after batting at the bottom of the lineup, Duran hit second in six of eight games. In the other two competitions, he placed fifth and sixth.
On Monday, it was reported that Smith is dealing with wrist inflammation, and there is no timetable for his return. Glute injuries can last a long time, while wrist injuries can debilitate and make it difficult to swing the bat. In addition, Smith is on a one-year contract and has not been playing well to begin with.
Translation: the path to regular at-bats is within range of Ezequiel Duran’s results now.
Except for that 2023 season, Duran filled a relief role, racking up 219 to 285 plate appearances over three seasons. The ISO has never been above .130 and has been sub-.100 the last two seasons. But 2023 showed that when given consistent plate appearances, Duran can be an effective player while maintaining a high BABIP and producing pop.
What gives me hope for continued production this season is the changes shown by Duran.
Average exit velocity is 91.5 mph. Two seasons ago, that number was 85.3 and 87.1 mph. In the 2023 season, he was at 90.1 mph.
His bat speed is 73.3 mph, up from 71.5 mph from last season.
28.8 feet per second is in the 91st percentile for speed, so stolen bases are on the menu, and double-digit swipes seem possible.
Righty, Ezequiel Duran is crushing right-handed pitching, posting a 155 wRC+ with a .214 ISO. The slash is .325/.538/.913, although it is fueled by a .397 BABIP. He’s been awful against left-handed pitching, but he’s also been unlucky with a .200 BABIP. That said, a relegation to the team’s shortstop role doesn’t look like it’s on the cards.
For most of his career, Duran was a free agent, posting rushing rates in the 38% range. So far this season, the rushing percentage is just 31.8%. In the first three seasons of his MLB career, Duran hit over 70% in the strike zone. This season? 61%. The local connection rate is 89.1%, which is a career high. Two seasons ago, that number was 86%.
Now, it’s not all sunshine and unicorns, as the ground ball rate is 48% and Duran has a 31.2% pull rate. At least the launch angle is decent at 13.1 degrees.
It’s possible that Ezequiel Duran is experiencing a setback, so I’m keeping my hopes up. That said, it is within the range of results that he plays until he reaches the top end as he has already proven the ability to maintain power and a high BABIP for a long time. The biggest variable is playing time, and there’s a chance Duran sees consistent playing time even if Smith returns to action. As mentioned above, Smith could be out for a while and, even when he returns, he could be a shell of himself. In addition, the Rangers did not make a long-term commitment to him.
There is power and speed here. In addition, he is suitable for SS, 1B, 2B, and OF. It’s very good.
