In the offseason, there was a lot of talk about the Astros having a crowded outfield. On paper, they had it Christian Walker in the beginning, Jose Altuve secondly, Jeremy Peña in short again Carlos Correa the third time. With Jordan Alvarez set to be in a designated area for days, that left no clear spot Isaac Paredeswho may need to jump in and cover other areas whenever someone takes a break from time to time.
The season quickly showed that the so-called surplus can quickly stop. A hamstring sent Peña to the injured list in mid-April, allowing Correa to become the shortstop and Paredes the regular third baseman. Peña was about to be handed a rehab assignment a few weeks later when Correa suffered an ankle injury that required season-ending surgery. The club was using the best walkers in gloves Nick Allen again Braden Shewmake covering briefly until Peña returns. When Peña was ready to start, Altuve hit IL.
All these players are still owned by the club in the 2027 season. The Astros can hold on to all of them. It would mean starting another season with a thin roster, but something could emerge to break up the logjam again.
Still, the Astros may look to this summer as an opportunity to loosen things up a bit. Due to a number of injuries, they got off to a terrible 20-31 start. Only the Rockies and Angels have a worse record. Because almost the entire American League is not doing well so far, Houston is only five games behind the playoffs, but climbing the race will be a challenge when many of its key players are injured or struggling.
With the league so wide open, some negative things could happen in the coming months, but it looks like there’s a good chance the Astros will be in a seller position this summer. That would be an unfamiliar position, having competed against each other for more than a decade. They finished out of the playoff picture last year, their first miss since 2016. They haven’t finished under .500 since 2014.
Trading an infielder would mean entering 2027 with less depth than they have this year, but they might want to think about it anyway. For the past few seasons, they have been operating with limited salary flexibility, due to owner Jim Crane’s desire to avoid the competitive balance sheet. In the most recent season, they needed to be thrown down and had to name, gamble on unproven arms like Tatsuya Imai, Ryan Weiss again Mike Burrows. For the most part, that bet hasn’t paid off and has contributed to the Astros’ current predicament. The outfield has also been an issue since the trade Kyle Tucker – another step that was motivated by financial problems.
Moving someone from the dirt could be a way to deal with those parts of the roster, or at least free up some cap space for more organization this coming winter. Due to their recent winning streak, and penalties related to the sign stealing scandal, their farm system is also considered one of the worst in the league. If they suddenly sell out, it could be an opportunity to restock. There are different ways they can approach things, each with pros and cons.
Altuve and Correa are not worth considering. They are veterans with big contracts, both currently in IL. Even if they had a trade value, they both have trade veto power. Making Peña available is one way they could go. The 2027 season will be his final arbitration year before he hits free agency. The chances of him signing an extension are slim.
First, Peña is represented by Boras Corporation. It’s not true that Boras never lets his clients sign extensions. For example, Altuve is a Boras client who signed multiple extensions with the Astros. But Houston never exceeded $160MM in a contract, for Altuve or anyone else. Peña may be prone to hitting that, as many solid shortstops have done in recent years. Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Willy AdamsCorrea, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner again Corey Seager they’ve all signed deals in recent years that are more valuable than anything the Astros have ever dished out.
It puts Peña in a similar position to where Tucker was a few years ago. Tucker was a homegrown star but he was close to free agency and would not be signed, so the Astros passed on him while they still had a year of regulation left. Peña’s control window will last more than a year when this summer’s deadline rolls around. Trading Tucker allowed the Astros to acquire Paredes, Cam Smith again Hayden Wesneski from Mantshontsho. Peña can find something similar or maybe even better. His offense wasn’t as consistently strong as Tucker’s but his speed and shortstop defense made a nice difference.
The downside is that Peña will be difficult to replace, because he is a shortstop and Tucker is a corner outfielder. Technically, the Astros could trade Peña and move Correa to shortstop but that’s probably not smart. Correa has been increasingly injury-prone in recent years and is coming off the aforementioned ankle surgery.
There are also no surprising options to trade Peña and find another foreigner. The best shortstop free agents for the 2026-27 class could be JP Crawford or Ha-Seong Kim. Crawford is a decent player but he is entering his age-32 season and his defense has been overlooked. He and the Mariners are already considering a move to third base. Kim has a better defensive reputation but has not been healthy much of the last two years. An old friend Mauricio Dubón he will be around but he hasn’t been relied upon as an everyday shortstop for a long time.
Trading Peña also wouldn’t represent a huge cost savings. He’s making $9.475MM this year and will get a raise in settlement, though it remains to be seen how much he can increase his salary. Despite his injuries this year, he has a .259/.305/.333 line and an 81 wRC+. He has plenty of time to get healthy and get into the groove but he is not yet a lock for a major promotion.
Perhaps Peña being available is more accessible, but Walker and Paredes were both heavily rumored over the winter. It seems fair to expect that the Astros would be more willing to listen to these two.
Walker had a rough year in 2025 but bounces back in a big 2026. He has a .255/.330/.489 slash line and a 128 wRC+. That’s significantly better than his 2025 line of .238/.297/.421 and nearly matches his 2022-24 production in Arizona, when he hit .250/.332/.481 with a 121 wRC+.
The Astros may feel comfortable moving on from Walker and having Paredes on hand to take over at first. With Walker making $20MM annually through 2027, they might as well embrace the opportunity to move that deal and open up some cap space. But that contract is also why Walker won’t have much trade value, unless he returns to action. While other teams may be interested in adding his bat to continue the run, a 36-year-old first baseman with a $20MM salary in 2027 will not be very appealing.
Players that age are usually not leaders at that level. The most recent contract for a youngster that gets paid like that is a three-year, $58.5MM deal that the Astros themselves offered. José Abreu. Houston fans know exactly how that one played out. Maybe Walker can have a better age-36 season than Abreu, but teams won’t be eager to pay to bet. Houston will likely have to spend money to make any kind of significant return.
Paredes is in excellent shape contractually. He made $9.35MM in his first season of arbitration. His deal has a $13.35MM club option for 2027. Even if that is not taken, he will be eligible for settlement and may be kept in a price range around that range.
So he’ll be cheaper than Walker and he’s also very young, as he’ll be 28 next year. Unfortunately, he is having a down year so far. His 8.6% walk rate is down nearly three ticks from last year. His .244/.333/.378 line is above average, leading to a 105 wRC+, but a significant drop from last year’s .254/.352/.458 line and 128 wRC+. There is a small amount of overhead here but not a ton. Considering his draw is a perfect match for the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park, he may be more valuable to Houston than other clubs.
Catching all three of Peña, Walker and Paredes is also possible. As mentioned, that will keep the depth for 2027, as injuries will appear next year. The bad thing about this method is that it will not give the club much opportunity to spend money by being sellers. Their upcoming free agents won’t download big stuff. Lance McCullers Jr. and Weiss won’t attract much interest from other clubs as things stand. The relievers Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert again Another De Los Santos it can be worked on but it doesn’t work until it reaches its previous level. Christian Vázquez he’s having a good season and could move, but he’s not going to pick up much as a 35-year-old backup catcher.
In short, the Astros don’t have much to sell if they’re restricting future free agents. In that case, they wouldn’t have done much to strengthen the farm and they wouldn’t have released any land to the payers. They would enter the offseason with the same roster, talented but with holes.
Trading an infielder would reduce depth but would help in other areas. Peña will bring back a lot, either in terms of capital or big league-ready talent, but he will blow a big hole in the short term. Moving one for Walker or Paredes wouldn’t leave as glaring a gap but it also doesn’t have nearly as much trade value as Peña.
It’s an interesting fork in the road for the franchise and it’s unclear who will choose which path to take. General manager Dana Brown is in the final year of his contract. Owner Jim Crane wasn’t shy about making bold decisions with his front office, only giving former GM James Click a one-year contract after the club won the World Series in 2022 and letting him go. Crane wasn’t sure enough about Brown to let him go into 2026 as a lame duck. Will you allow him to manage the time limit for the sale? Would Brown even want to take part in a big sale if his career is in full swing?
If not Brown, who would make the decisions? Crane briefly held the office between Click’s departure and Brown’s hiring, to act himself. However, that didn’t go particularly well. In that short window, the Astros signed the aforementioned Abreu deal and re-inked Rafael Montero in a three-year contract. Both of those deals quickly turned into huge duds, so maybe Crane realizes he shouldn’t be the one making these calls. Is there an assistant GM who is willing to move up this summer? Is there a chance to find a front office leader during the season?
There are still many questions surrounding the team, players and front office. How those questions are answered in the coming months will shape the club’s future, making it one of the most interesting clubs to watch this summer.
Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images
