Ceddanne Rafaela has a weak arm. He also has a strong arm.
This is an analysis I have wanted to do for a long time. It’s not that important or complicated, and most of it is obvious. But it comes to something that comes up from time to time in different areas of baseball that is discussed on the Internet. The conversation usually starts like this: Team A should sign Player X and move him to a new position. Inevitably, one of the first questions asked about such a program is whether Player X has the arm strength to play that new position.
The number quoted for “yay” or “nay” in such a pursuit is arm strength, in miles per hour. But ask any baseball fan to sit with this for a while, and they’ll raise concerns. Arm strength is, to some extent, a function of position. The third baseman has a longer throw than the second baseman. A right winger has a longer throw to make than a left winger. This means that players with better arms tend to play those positions, as we can see in this plot:
It also means that the official arm strength statistics reported by Baseball Savant are not transferable between positions. We can’t tell if Player X has the ability to play in a certain position if he has never played there before.
That brings us to Rafaela. Most fans think of him as the best shortstop in the majors after Pete Crow-Armstrong. But Rafaela also played 24 games at second base last year. His published arm strength at second base in 2025 was 78.5 mph. In center field, however, his published arm strength was 93.4 mph. As of 2021, that’s the largest gap in a fielder between two positions (excluding first base):
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Looking at the plot, if we assumed that Rafaela’s published arm strength at second base would be his average arm strength, he would have had one of the three weakest arms last year. Instead, he ended up getting one of the strongest. This is because this is the type of throw that gets second base:
Although this is usually all it takes to get out of the middle:
It’s worth noting the methodology behind the arm strength statistics you see in Baseball Savant. Basically, it’s the average of a player’s strongest throws. From the Baseball Savant arm leaderboard:
Since the demands of each position group are different, the averages and qualifications are also different.
– 1B: top 1% casting average (minimum 100 castings to qualify);
– 2B/SS/3B: top 5% throw rate (minimum of 75 throws to qualify);
– TO: top 10% casting average (minimum 50 castings to qualify)
So, how much arm strength can we expect a player to gain or lose by changing position? I’ve found all the players with the lowest pitching average in a season since 2021. I then took their arm strength at each position and averaged the difference. It’s about what you’d expect. Players throw harder when on the right field than before:
Changing Arm Strength
| Pos | Gain/Loss (mph) |
|---|---|
| RF | +1.5 |
| 3B | +1.1 |
| SS | +0.8 |
| CF | +0.3 |
| LF | +0.3 |
| 2B | -2.0 |
| 1B | -4.8 |
Source: Baseball Savant
The players excelled in many positions during the season
While doing this analysis, I found that Tom Tango did an extensive piece on this positional comparison, looking specifically at players who move between any two positions. Using his method gives us a nice grid:
For example, a fielder moving from second base to centerfield adds about 6.5 mph on average to his arm strength count. Rafaela has nearly doubled that, going from being a second-best pitcher to one of the hardest hitters in the league. But how strong is that arm?
In terms of value, arm strength is less playable compared to range. There are few opportunities to use a strong arm. Baseball Savant only publishes the arm value fractions of outfielders, where arm and width are easier to separate than infielders. The value of the arm is determined by a series of measurements and standards, comparing how often the baserunner should try to advance on the fielder and how often he actually does (and how often he does so safely). This is done using a distance model, which takes into account the runner’s speed, the fielder’s arm, and each distance from the target.
In other words, the value of an arm is not limited to pure strength. Preventing runners from advancing requires a variety of other skills, such as getting to the ball, fielding it, and making accurate throws. And the big throw depends on the other player who gets the ball and uses the mark. Also, a runner’s decision to progress is partly based on the game environment and other game-specific nuances. There are many reasons that a strong arm does not always equate to a vital arm, and vice versa.
This also means that each outfield location has a different base arm value:
Number of Arms per Position (Thus 100 Throws)
| Price | LF | CF | RF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | -2.26 | -1.62 | -2.52 |
| Hold on | +1.14 | +1.29 | +1.52 |
| Get out | +0.87 | +0.52 | +0.91 |
| Total | -0.25 | +0.19 | -0.09 |
Source: Baseball Savant
Arm strength appears to have a greater effect on right-handed athletes. That’s interesting, though also accurate. Right fielders are often asked to make long throws, and they can melt away allowing runners to advance. Those with strong arms are both more likely to throw out runners and trick runners into staying in place.
I wonder if there is a reputational benefit. Balls hit to left field, for example, allow the runner to read and react to the play in front of them, while balls hit to right field force the runner to refer to the scout report. I’m sure many runners feel uncomfortable when they don’t see Addison Barger:
The average pitch arm value is less responsive to arm strength. Not much even the strongest arm can do from 400 feet. A center fielder with an important arm is a center fielder who takes a good approach to the ball and cuts it cleanly, rather than a rescuing assist.
Rafaela happens to have all these skills. He has both great range and a strong arm. He finished 2025 with two runs average off his arm, seventh among center fielders and in the top 15% of outfielders. That’s not much, but hey, not bad for a second baseman throwing down.
