Two months ago, Aroldis Chapman was expected to be the best reliever traded this summer. Boston’s 15-game winning streak clinched the Wild Card spot and could potentially take him off the market. That coincided with increased discussion about the possibility of Mason Miller blockbuster for the second straight year.
The Padres take a 50-51 record into tonight’s game in Atlanta. They are 2.5 games back of the Wild Card spot but have five teams to jump. Various postseason odds from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference have them in the 10-20% range for October baseball.
Although the Rockies, Giants, Mets and maybe even the Reds are really out of it in the National League, there may be only one place to be caught between Pittsburgh, Arizona, Miami, Washington, St. Louis and San Diego. The Dodgers and Brewers are definitely in. The Braves will need two bad final months to clinch a playoff spot. The Cubs and Phillies have work to do but are a few games out of the Wild Card race.
What does that mean for baseball’s best reliever? Miller has a 0.86 earned run average with a monster 48.8% strikeout rate, nearly 10 percentage points higher than any other pitcher (minimum 30 innings). He is 25-25 in saves. He and him Louis Varland they are the only pitchers with 20 saves who haven’t hit a streak all year.
Miller is playing for a $4MM salary, about $1.2MM of which will be owed after the August 3 deadline. He will be eligible for compensation for three seasons after this one (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). If he is traded, it will be the most important return prospect of any player moved this summer. Tarik SkubalFor example.
We’re approaching the one-year anniversary of the Padres acquiring Miller and a deep starter JP Sears from Athletics. San Diego gave up its high hopes, Leo De VriesBaseball America now ranks him as the #2 youngest player in the game. Most stores had De Vries in the 5-10 range overall during trading.
The kind of hope that teams won’t trade anymore. De Vries is at least the best prospect taken away since the Padres gave up CJ Abrams (again James Wood) in 2022 Juan Soto deal. San Diego president of baseball operations AJ Preller has a well-earned reputation as one of the most daring managers in sports. No other teams are willing to leave a title at the level of De Vries.
San Diego certainly expected to have Miller behind a contending bullpen for the foreseeable future. The relief team has been excellent, but inconsistent offense and the league’s weakest rotation have kept them around .500. Speaking just before the All-Star break, Preller didn’t give anything away but suggested that their preference is to catch him.
“Obviously, Mason is the best in the game. So you’re always going to have people who are going to be interested in someone who is the best at their job and what they do,” he told reporters (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). “Since we made the deal last year, he’s done as well as you’d want someone to. We made the deal with the intention of Mason staying for a long time. He’s done an unbelievable job. And our goal is still the same as when we made the deal last year.”
That’s a lot of stress to get out of Break strong. They started 2-3 against the Royals and Braves. They have two more against Atlanta (including Wednesday’s game) before an important weekend series in Miami. The Padres will host two Rockies and four Giants before the deadline. That’s about as much slate as they can get to build good momentum.
It probably points to the Padres taking this right up until the deadline. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote over the weekend that some front office staff at other clubs are expecting Miller to move. If that happens, the recovery will have to be huge. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic spoke with a rival official who revealed that Preller will seek more top 100 opportunities for his closer.
That’s hardly surprising but still leaves a wide range of offers. They probably won’t be interested in trading Miller for two prospects in the 90-100 spots on the public’s prospect list. They may not command a De Vries-caliber headliner, but it would be a surprise if they didn’t get at least one player with a 25-50 deal chance or a manageable big player of comparable value.
San Diego’s first manageable path, in particular, is lacking. Players love it Bubba Chandler, Andrew Painter, Kumar Rocker again Jackson Jobe they are far from being minor league talents. They all graduated in the prospect rankings but have yet to emerge as top-tier arms. Could the Padres be looking at a big young player of that ilk alongside one top prospect?
Last week, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also hinted at the possibility of using Miller to relieve others Xander Bogaerts agreement. That’s especially hard to see, since Bogaerts’ deal — which includes a full no-trade clause — is among the worst in the league from the team’s perspective. He is still owed $175MM over the next seven seasons, his age 34-40 campaigns. Bogaerts is hitting .220/.312/.327 and would be looking at a one or two year contract if he were a free agent.
The contract is $150MM above market value. As good as Miller is, that’s probably more than he would be worth in free agency. Neither cut has reached $100MM in total current value. The Padres would need to eat a large chunk of Bogaerts’ money and/or recoup a bad contract even if they stick it to Miller – while also cutting one of the younger talents they’d get.
In 2018 Edwin Díaz/Robinson Cano for Jarred Kelenic a blockbuster between the Mets and the Mariners would be the closest analogue. Díaz is the closest point of comparison for Miller, as he was one of the team’s closest players and under team control for four seasons. Canó was a better player than Bogaerts right now. The trade saved Seattle $64MM while bringing back Kelenic, who was a few months removed from the sixth pick and back-end top 100. There has never been such a trade in the eight years since that miracle.
