Are the rest of the Masters really worth it? Here’s what the data says

For right-handed players who like to finish, Augusta National offers several uncomfortable shots. That said, the opposite is true for left-handed players, who seem to be benefiting from those who can deliver the kind of shots that are often asked of them on tour weeks.

Start with the first nine, where holes 2, 5 and 9 move significantly from right to left. In the second nine, 10 and 13 go the same way. Both par-3s on that side – 12 and 16 – also lend themselves to fading left.

All of this, one might think, would help explain why, since 2003, lefties have won the Masters six times (Mike Weir, 2003; Phil Mickelson, 2004, ’06 and ’10; Bubba Watson, 2012 and ’14). During that same span, lefties combined for just four wins in the other three men’s majors.

But what is a deep data dive? What parts of the course are the most important advantages for left-handed users? Or, conversely, do the statistics not support a long-held theory?

We analyzed the shot-by-shot strokes-gained data from every Masters from 2015 to the present – including more than 3,200 rounds and 234,000 strokes – to search for meaningful answers to our question.

Data set

The left-handed rounds we analyzed come from an eclectic mix of players at different points in their careers, including former champions (Weir, Mickelson, Watson); great rivals and winners (Robert MacIntyre, Brian Harman); rising stars (Akshay Bhatia); and Travelers (Ted Potter, Jr.).

Although lefties have accounted for six Masters victories in the last 23 years, they make up a small portion of the fields. As of 2015, only 4.6% of Masters rounds were played by lefties.

When it comes to elite players, that share is very small. As of 2015, less than 3.5% of left-handed golfers are ranked in the top 50 of the official world golf rankings. And only the remaining three in that period are ranked in the top ten in the world, accounting for only 2.7% of field cosmetics in the selected period. It’s important to look at those numbers when you consider that right-handed players in our study window outscored left-handed players by a 72.92 to 73.25 ratio.

Overall styles

Because most elite players are right-handed, it is difficult to conduct comprehensive tests comparing the average performance of left-handed versus right-handed players.

Off the tee, the numbers are a wash. Both teams produce nearly identical percentages of fairway hits (69.2% to 69.1%). In terms of strokes gained, lefties since 2015 have gained an average of 0.03 more strokes per round compared to righties.

How about playing all the way? As of 2015, left-handers have received a fair hit in 52.7% of their rounds played compared to 51.3% for right-handers. However, if you look at high-level performance, the numbers go in favor of a large group of good high-level players: while 22.0% of rounds from “high” lefties result in a full hit or more with fairway play, 28.6% of rounds from the right check that box.

The most interesting data reveals itself when looking at individual holes.

Pit analysis

Statistically, some holes produce amazing results.

You would think that par-5 2nd holewhich includes a standard right-to-left dogleg, can favor lefties. But lefties made birdie or eagle about 10% less often than righties there since 2015. By that count, the biggest negative experience to leave was for those left in Augusta.

I 4 5th holewhich also runs right to left on the tee, rates in the middle of the pack in terms of shot difficulty for right-handed players, averaging the 9th hardest green in regulation since 2015. For lefties, it ranks 5th-toughest, offering a GIR rate 4.1% lower than its right-handed counterparts.

I 4 10th hole produces a very large green gain in control level for left-handed players. Since 2015, lefties have reached for green about 6% more often than righties.

For the famous Section 3 12lefties make birdie 4% more often than righties, and lefties average 0.13 strokes lower than righties (the second largest advantage on the course).

No single hole produced a greater statistical advantage for lefties than the hard dogleg-left Section 5 13. Since 2015, lefties have hit the 13th fairway 82% of the time, or 11.4% more than the field average. That resulted in a birdie average or 11.5% better for lefties than the rest of the field. Memories go hand in hand with numbers: think of some of the amazing shots Mickelson and Watson hit on 13.

I Section 3 16 produces a large difference in greenness according to the control level in the study. Since 2015, lefties have hit the green legally at Redbud about 75% of the time. For the rest, that rate is 11% lower. A tee shot right on 16 requires moving the ball over water that sits to the left of the green. This wide difference suggests that fairies tend to be more conservative (find the middle of the green) while lefties take more risks (attack the pin).

During Augusta National Section 4 18 moving slightly from left to right, lefties have a slightly higher fairway hit rate (+2.3%), green control rate (+2.8%) and birdie or better rate (+0.9%) than righties. Hole shape is not the only determining factor in this statistical difference, but it is undoubtedly the biggest.

The conclusion

With wide strokes, statistics show that lefties at the Masters do not have a significant advantage over righties. But the course asks different questions of players depending on which side of the ball they stand on – and in a few key areas, the numbers tell you, it’s easier to be on the left.