This week’s mailbag tries to figure out the Royals’ blueprint, considering the needs of the Cubs, we think Jordan Walker extension, examines the Braves’ trade intentions, explains how minor league options work, and much more!
DT asks:
Another season lost to the Royals. With the possible exception of BWJ and Caglianone, their draft picks, all of which have been very high, have traditionally been complete busts. What will it take to transform this organization?
To answer this question, I will start by taking about eight hours by car from Kansas City to Milwaukee. The Brewers seem to be the model of a small market rivalry. How do they get it out?
Let’s look to 2023 to introduce the Brewers. Position players have averaged 83.7 WAR since 2023, excluding those who were negative in that metric. About three-quarters of that MPI is focused on seven players. Here is how they are found:
William Contreras: 19.6% of the total MPI. The Brewers took an outfielder Esteury Ruiz as part of Josh Hader trade by the 2022 deadline. Ruiz had a 45-degree prospect that lacked power and did not profile as normal. The Brewers then traded to the Braves-A for Sean Murphy a few months later, prying the controllable Contreras from Atlanta after the 2022 season. But the Brewers had Ruiz because they first had Hader, an All-Star power hitter with a year and a few months of control. They had Hader because former GM Doug Melvin got him in a deal they sent Carlos Gomez again Mike Fiers to the Astros in 2015.
Putting aside the significant work done by the David Stearns regime to develop Hader into a star, Stearns was also willing to trade Hader while the Brewers sat in first place with a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Despite the need for bold trades and strong player development, the Brewers willingly surrendered their 2022 playoff chances (and missed the playoffs that year) to begin a string of trades that landed them Contreras, who was pivotal to their 2023-26 run.
The Royals had a zero playoff shot at that point, but JJ Picollo pulled off his major trade by sending Aroldis Chapman to Texas Cole Ragans in 2023 before the calendar turns to July. But assuming Ragans returns health and production wise, he’s the type of player the Brewers would be looking to trade this winter or at next year’s trade deadline. So my point is that a high trade for the Ragans, if possible, would help set the Royals up for continued success.
Christian Yelich: 11.5% OF WARS. Stearns made a “make it” trade for Yelich in January 2018 with five years left on his contract, extending it a few years later. In order to do so they gave up the average 60-degree risk Lewis Brinson50 grade high risk San Diazand a high risk of grade 60 Monte Harrison. So the Brewers gave up their first, fifth, and ninth prospects, who were considered good prospects for the game, but none of them were outs. Would the royals have placed Blake Mitchell, Kendry Chourioand another good prospect in a deal for a manageable 4-5 WAR Major Leaguer? They probably haven’t played well enough to feel that they can give up those players.
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