Lucas GiolitoFree agency for the 2025-2026 season is over. The Padres announced that they signed him to a one-year contract with a matching option. He’ll get $3MM guaranteed, with half of that total by buying out a 2027 co-op option worth $8MM. Giolito could increase the buyout by $3MM based on early 2026. There is an additional $2MM in unlockable bonuses associated with prize voting. To make room for the 40-man, the Padres declared it OK Bryan Hoeing transferred to 60-day IL as he recovers from flexor surgery. Giolito will start with Single-A Lake Elsinore and should be on the big league roster within the next 25 days. Giolito is represented by CAA Sports.
For Giolito, his second foray into free agency wasn’t nearly as successful as his first. His run from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox established him as a top-tier arm. Among the 46 starters who threw at least 350 innings during that span, Giolito was sixth with a 30.7% strikeout rate behind an impressive fastball-changeup pairing. His propensity for fly balls (41.7 FB%) and homers (13.7 HR/FB%) may have precluded the term “ace”, yet Giolito was one of the best hitters in baseball during this era.
However, mediocre results followed in 2022 and 2023, with the homer coming in 2023. His 41 big flies were second behind Lance Lynn. Despite a poor pitching year by his standards, Giolito and his representatives were able to parlay the show into a $38.5MM guarantee with the Red Sox during the ’24-’25 seasons, along with additional incentives and a player option structure.
Unfortunately, the beleaguered UCL has abruptly halted its 2024 season. An internal brace procedure (which carries a shorter rehab timeline than a traditional Tommy John ligament graft) returned him to the mound by the end of the following April, where he threw 145 innings. ERA evaluators/predictors like xFIP (4.59) and SIERA (4.65) were more powerful in his career than his actual results (3.41). Notably, Giolito’s hitting was the lowest since his win with the White Sox. He’s featured more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the good form he flashed from 2019-2021 with Chicago.
Despite a strong return to the rotation, Giolito suffered from flexor irritation and a bone problem at the end of the 2025 season. Although he was due to return to the club after the layoff, the Red Sox’ early season exit meant Giolito had no chance to play again before being relieved. Under the hood, Giolito looked like a muted version of his best days, but he was an adequate starter in 2025.
His fastball velocity came in about one mile per hour (93.3) lower than his best season with the White Sox (94.2), but this was a continuation of a trend that began in 2022. Among the 82 pitchers who threw at least 140 innings last season, Giolito was 69th in K-BB under the ability to control banerage and batsveing. However, he was able to limit homers more effectively than ever: his 9.3 HR/FB% was below the league average, and it was the first time he recorded the one-percent mark in a season of 25 or more starts.
Giolito declined a $19MM contract option (which is actually legal) with the Red Sox for 2026, and perhaps it was no surprise that the Red Sox passed on Giolito a qualifying offer after the 2025 season out of fear of permanent injury. He is the last of the MLBTR 2025-2026 Top 50 MLB Free Agents to sign, and comes in well below the expected age and total guarantee. Even without the draft pick compensation attached, Giolito remained on the free agent market until April, despite notable playoff contenders such as the Braves, Cubs, and Padres losing multiple starters during Spring Training and the early season.
Speaking of the Padres, this news couldn’t come at a better time. Injuries and slow recoveries have reduced the top rotation over the last few months. Yu Darvish he had his second UCL surgery after the playoffs ended in early November. Darvish is currently rehabbing on the restricted list away from the team and has reportedly considered retirement. Joe Musgrovehas recovered from Tommy John surgery back in October 2024 and was expected to open the season in the rotation, his rehab was interrupted and he was sidelined. placed in IL to open the season. 2025 workhorse Nick Pivetta hit the IL after four starts with flexor strain. Surgery is currently off the table, but given the recurrence of complications (Pivetta also hit IL for a short time 2024 same issue), the Padres will give Pivetta plenty of time to rest his ailing arm in the hopes that he’ll be available for the season.
These injuries have reduced the rotation depth significantly in San Diego. Juan Soto trade returns Michael King again Randy Vasquez they provide quality innings, but the back of the rotation has shown mixed results so far. Walker Buehlerthough he’s far from his prime for the Dodgers, he looks like he might still have something left in the tank. Former Rockies All-Star Marquez from Germany has a 3.86 ERA but less exciting numbers under the hood. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron He was hit hard in his debut in 2026.
All three starters struggled to give the Padres consistent innings later in the game. Seven of the Padres’ first 23 starts failed to record a fifth inning. However Griffin Canning is on the horizon while working through Triple-A El Paso rehab, the Padres decided it was worth bolstering the rotation depth for next summer.
Giolito’s contract clearance to be returned to the Major Leagues in the next 25 days would put him in a position to make his debut in mid-May. This should give him four times in the rotation to build up his arm after missing Spring Training. If the rotation stays healthy after Canning joins, the Padres will have some decisions to make. As MLB veterans with sufficient service time, Buehler and Marquez cannot be selected without their consent. Someone may end up in the bullpen or be taken off the list altogether, depending on their future health.
In the meantime, San Diego will be happy to kick the roster-crunch can down the road. An affordable, low-risk signing of an MLB-quality arm that could help the team weather the storm of injuries. The deal follows a similar recent signing by PBO/GM AJ Preller. Working under certain salary restrictions after the death of former owner Peter Seidler and the imminent sale of the club, Preller has prioritized creative, low-dollar guarantees on Pivetta, Marquez, Buehler, and now Giolito to offset the CBT hit (the Padres are currently in the luxury first-payer level). For his part, Giolito gets a chance to open for a potential contender with a recent record for renewing a number of starting pitchers as he looks to pass his 2025 platform year in order to receive a better offer next season.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post was the first to report the $3MM guarantee and $2MM in prize bonuses. Ari Alexander of 7News Boston WHDH had a $1.5MM salary with an $8MM share option purchase and a $3MM escalator. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune had details about the first minor league assignment and recall schedule.
