2026 NHL Western Conference Playoff Teams: Who’s Hot & Who’s Not – Hockey Writers – Commentary

As exciting as the Eastern Conference playoff race has been this season, you can’t say the same for the West. There are a few good teams in the West, but sometimes you just need to get hot at the right time. Which teams in the West are playing best going into the play-offs and have the best chance of advancing?

The Colorado Avalanche

It’s fair to say that the Colorado Avalanche are heavy favorites to win the Western Conference. They went quiet after their rough start, but have rebounded in their last 15 games, going 11-3-1. Their base numbers are always pretty good, too.

The Avalanche have been one of the five best teams in the NHL this season. They have an expected goal share (xG%) of over 50 percent and have gone about 57 percent in each of their last 15 games. They averaged 3.32 goals per 60 minutes in that stretch of 15 games and allowed just 2.49 per 60.

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are the driving force behind the Avalanche’s success, but this is as complete a roster as you’ll get this season. They have one of the most stable goaltenders in Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, and the depth of the team as a whole could be close to unmatched. It would be a shock if they don’t make it to at least the Western Conference finals.

Edmonton Oilers

I’m not sure I’d call the Edmonton Oilers season a disgrace. After all, they made the playoffs. But it would be fair to say that they didn’t quite live up to expectations in the regular season. Fortunately, they had a good close to the season, finishing with a 9-4-2 record in their last 15 games.

Most notably, the Oilers’ five-on-5 metrics have seen some improvement over their last 15 games. They have a total xG% of 51.35 percent throughout that period and seem to be getting their defensive game together, allowing an expected 2.48 goals per 60 minutes.

One thing that works for the Oilers is that they are in the middle of the Western bracket. They will face the Anaheim Ducks in Round 1, then face the winner of the Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth series if they advance to the Ducks. Another trip to the Western Conference Final plays out big.

Los Angeles Kings

I refuse to say that the Los Angeles Kings are hot in the playoffs, but they are playing better hockey. They finished the season with a 7-3-5 record, a .633 hitting percentage. Their five-for-five numbers were respectable, too.

The Kings have shot a 53.39% xG% in their last 15 games, so it looks like interim coach DJ Smith has righted the ship. Unfortunately for Amakhosi, the Avalanche appeared as their opponent in the first round. I wouldn’t go so far as to say they will get swept, but upsetting the Avalanche will be a tall, tall order.

As mentioned above, the depth of the Avalanche is close to unmatched. The Kings don’t have the strength to compete with the Avalanche, especially since Kevin Fiala is out of the playoffs after suffering a serious leg injury in the Olympics. Maybe Darcy Kuemper can steal a game, maybe two, but the rest of the series doesn’t seem likely.

Vegas Golden Knights

It’s been an interesting start to the season for the Golden Knights. They fired coach Bruce Cassidy with eight games left in the regular season and have found their game. They went 8-4-3 in their last 15 games, but were 7-0-1 under John Tortorella, who took over for Cassidy on a temporary basis.

The Golden Knights’ five-for-five numbers over their last 15 games have been terrifying. They had an xG% of 60.55 percent and dominated on both ends of the ice. They produced an expected 3.09 goals per 60 minutes but only allowed 2.01 per 60. A small sample, but trending in the right direction.

The Golden Knights have a formidable first round opponent in Mammoth. That series is trending towards the top run for me, even though the Mammoths are a sleeper team. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but the Golden Knights have a good path as they are in the Pacific Division of the playoff bracket.

Dallas Stars

Is this the year the Dallas Stars break through and win the West? They will have to get past the Minnesota Wild and probably the Avalanche to make the Western Conference Final, but there is no doubt that they have the talent to do so.

The Stars have played well as the regular season approaches, going 8-5-2 in their last 15 games. However, their five to five numbers raise some concerns. They have achieved an xG% of just 48.13 percent over their last 15 contests, but injuries have been a problem. Roope Hintz hasn’t played since March 6 and will miss at least Games 1 and 2 of their first-round series against the Wild. Meanwhile, Miro Heiskanen missed the last few games of the regular season, but is expected to be available for most, if not all, of this series.

The Stars have a winning streak in the West when healthy, but they need Hintz back soon. I’d say their five-to-five numbers are due to injuries, but we’ll see if that’s the case. How they fare in their first few games against the Wild will tell us if those five-for-five numbers were worth worrying about too much.

The Utah Mammoth

The Mammoth’s overall performance during the regular season was impressive, but there has been a slight drop in their five-for-five numbers over their last 15 games. They achieved an xG% of 50.65 percent in that game, although they still went 9-6-0.

Their game against the Golden Knights is one of the most interesting of the entire first round. The Mammoths have the better roster on paper, but the Golden Knights are playing better hockey come the postseason. Sometimes, you just need to get hot at the right time, and that could mean Mammoth catching the Golden Knights at the wrong time.

Minnesota Wild

Wild GM Bill Guerin went all in earlier this season when he acquired Quinn Hughes from the Vancouver Canucks. That trade paid dividends and helped turn the Wild into a legitimate threat in the West. They had a mediocre finish to the season, going 8-7-0 in their last 15 games, but still seem to be trending in the right direction.

Although the Wild were just over .500 over their last 15 games, they posted an impressive xG% of 56.42 percent. That’s nine percent more than their actual goals share. Another reason for that is that the Wild have had a five-for-five save percentage of just .885 over their last 15 games. They’ll need that to come quickly, because even though the Stars are missing Hintz, they have plenty of potential.

It’s unfortunate that the Wild have to face the Stars in the first round. That should be a matchup saved for later in the postseason, but that’s part of what you get with this ridiculous playoff format. At the very least, it should make for an interesting first round.

Anaheim Ducks

It’s been a great season for the Ducks. They took huge strides forward and ended a long playoff drought dating back to the 2017-18 season. They will enter the playoffs with a limp, however. They finished the season with a 6-6-3 record, although their five-for-five numbers were solid.

The Ducks have made a total xG% of 52.46 percent across their last 15 games and have done so playing the style of hockey’s top event. That could make for an exciting series with the Oilers, who are no strangers to fireworks hockey. I don’t see the Ducks winning that series, but their high-powered offense could present some challenges for the Oilers.

TierMaking the West

Obviously, the Avalanche are a clear Cup contender in the West, but who else joins them?

Bona Fide Stanley Cup Contenders:

If the Stars can get Hintz back, they have the horses to compete with the Avalanche. Their five-for-five play isn’t where it should be for most Stanley Cup contenders, but we’ll see if they can be okay with a healthy lineup.

Cup Odds:

The Oilers and Golden Knights are flawed teams, but their path to the Western Conference Final is not difficult. They are two of the most experienced teams in the playoffs, so you can’t rule them out. Also, the Golden Knights may be on top at the right time.

Maybe It’s Not Their Year:

The Wild have a good roster, but getting past the Stars, then the Avalanche is a tall order. I appreciate them if they can pull it off, but I don’t like their chances. Good luck for the Kings against the Avalanche because they will probably need it.

While the Mammoth are a tricky team to win a round or two, making the Stanley Cup Final would be a shocker. You can say the same about the Ducks. The Western Conference isn’t as deep as the Eastern, and who the real Stanley Cup contenders are is much clearer.

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