The Astros plan to give back Tatsuya Imai on the injured list to face the Mariners next week, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome puts it, Imai’s conditioning results haven’t been great but Houston’s rotation needs whatever arms it can get as the club begins a 13-game streak without a day off on Friday.
At this point, it’s hard to know what to make of Imai. He has been dominant in Japan for the past few years but MLB clubs were skeptical about how he would translate to North American football. While it was thought he could get a long-term deal with nine figures guaranteed, he got a three-year, $54MM deal to opt out after each season. The ideal path forward for Imai would have seen him prove his worth against big league pitching before returning to free agency to cash in.
So far, it’s not going according to plan. He couldn’t get out of the third inning in his first start. His second outing was good, as he threw 5 2/3 scoreless frames. But in the third start, he recorded only one.
Then he came to IL and was diagnosed with vague arm fatigue. He began a rehab assignment on April 28. According to Rome, the plan was to make only one rehab outing but he allowed five earned runs in two innings while walking three. The Astros decided to give him the second outing again, hoping for four or five innings with a few walks. He went three innings but walked five.
Regulatory issues are concerning development, considering that was a problem during his time in Japan. From 2019 to 2023, he finished each season with a walk rate of at least 11.4%. It showed improvement, dropping to 9.8% in 2024 and 7% last year. For reference, the MLB average is usually 8 to 9%. In his three starts for the Astros this year, he has walked 25% of the batters he has faced.
General manager Dana Brown was quoted in the Rome piece, saying that Imai actually needs to trust his arsenal more. “A big part of it is letting him free his mind (and) attack big league hitters like he used to attack hitters in Japan. Don’t overthink it and just shut up and be yourself,” Brown said. “This is the main point we are trying to convey to him: just be yourself and be confident in things because your things play at this level.”
That’s an interesting framing considering the previous comments from Imai. Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball has been playing with a dead ball in recent years, with an inferior offense. The running area is so low that Imai is tired.
“I didn’t always dream of going to MLB,” Imai said in November, as reported by Yakyu Cosmopolitan. “But two or three years ago […] I felt like not many hitters were even trying to hit me with a homer. Most teams would just break bad points and make my pitch. I get that that’s part of a valid strategy, but if I were a fan, I don’t think this type of baseball is very exciting to watch.”
This is perhaps an oversimplification but it is possible that the dead ball allowed Imai to attack the strike zone more, reducing his walk rate. With the move to MLB, he probably became more concerned with hitting the edges and therefore lost his feel a little bit.
Time will tell if he can return to form but recent numbers are not encouraging. The Astros will apparently try anyway, which is a reflection of their snakebit rotation. In addition to Imai beating IL due to arm fatigue, they lost Hunter Brown again Cristian Javier to face difficulties this year. That’s more Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski again Brandon Waltereach of them still recovering from surgery last year.
Their current rotation consists of Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows, Spencer Arrighetti, Cody Bolton again Peter Lambert. McCullers is now a question mark for his next start. He couldn’t go three innings yesterday, later telling Rome it was because of problems with the index finger nail on his pitching hand. He is not sure if he will be able to take the ball next time.
The Astros are out today. In Cincinnati this weekend, Burrows and Arrighetti are slated for the first two. After that, Bolton or Lambert could start on Sunday and/or Monday. Imai will be in the mix next week, maybe as soon as Monday. If McCullers can’t take the ball and wants to bring someone else into the mix, their options may be limited. Both Ryan Weiss again Jason Alexander selected in recent days. A pitcher cannot be recalled after being selected until 15 days have passed, unless someone else continues the IL.
Kai-Wei Teng again AJ Blubaugh they’ve been throwing a lot of innings out of the bullpen and can take a lot. Colton Gordon he was elected on April 25, so his 15-day window will open soon. Miguel Ullola he’s on the 40-man but is struggling for control in Triple-A and the Astros haven’t called him up this year, despite calling up nearly every other hand on deck. JP France again Brandon Bielak other unlisted options in Triple-A.
Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images
