This week’s mailbag starts with the strength of the Cardinals, the bad offense of the Mets, what the Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies might look like, Casey Mizecontract year, and more.
Andrew asks:
I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a good record. How long will it take for the Cardinals to maintain a winning record before I can be optimistic about making the playoffs?
FanGraphs is more optimistic than PECOTA for this team, so we’ll go with their 13.5% playoff odds. The Cardinals hit .552 in 17.9% of their season, but FG is .462 from here on out. If the Cards instead play .500 ball in their last 129, they’ll win 82-83 games, which could put them in a tight tie for the wild card all the way.
At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals’ offense ranks sixth in the NL. If they actually get in the 800-run zone, it would be exciting for any team, not one that entered the season with low expectations.
Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and make up 85% of the team’s total:
- Ivan Herrera – 138 wRC+. Statcast’s metrics are solid, and even if Herrera can maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is very realistic. If so, the Cardinals have a baseline at DH/catcher through 2029.
- JJ Wetherholt – 132 wRC+. The highly touted rookie is starting off and exceeding expectations. He will go down at some point, but with 70 strikeouts and 55 power, one can make a case for solid production going forward even if it looks different (like a higher batting average).
- Alec Burleson – 115 wRC+. He has a track record at this level, so this makes sense.
- Jordan Walker – 153 wRC+. If this holds true, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball. Maybe that’s optimistic, but the output is supported by Statcast.
- Nolan Gorman – 81 wRC+. He hasn’t really hit since 2023, though he’s good against righties and looks good at third base this year. If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade Isaac Paredes?
- Masyn Winn – 103 wRC+. You hit the mark.
- Victor Scott II – 39 wRC+. Scott isn’t there to claim his bat, but he seems best suited for the fourth outfielder role.
- Nathan Church – 106 wRC+. The 25-year-old pacer entered the year with a chance of 40 and may lack first bat, but he batted well in the top minors. I’m not sure I’d want Scott and Church on the same roster, but they’re a solid defensive pairing. Thomas Saggese it’s in the mix, along with hope Joshua Baez he can join it if he slows down the strike.
- Pedro Pages – 106 wRC+. The pages have a little pop, but they can’t keep up with this.
Lars Nootbaar he had surgery in October to deal with lameness in his heels, and would be a nice June addition capable of 115-120 wRC+. If Nootbaar has a loop, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh might be interesting. You can’t help but wonder how good this offense would look if the Cardinals kept Contreras and Brendan Donovanhowever.
Bottom line, though: there’s something here for this case, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost. And this appears to be one of the better defenses in the NL. What about the throwing side?
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