I don’t think many would vehemently disagree with me if I characterized the last two seasons of the Atlanta Braves as a miserable disappointment. In 2024, the Braves were widely believed to challenge the Dodgers for the title of the best team in baseball. This was delayed by about six weeks, but for the rest of the season, they suffered a slew of injuries and played .500 ball, which hung a little in the wildcard area before being quickly ousted by the Padres. Going into 2025 hoping for a healthy, back-to-back season, nothing like that happened. Atlanta finished 76-86, the franchise’s first losing season since 2017. Expectations for this season have been largely muted. Although the Braves were expected to contend (FanGraphs’ projections were more optimistic than ZiPS’s), the excitement was less than two years ago.
So far in 2026, the Braves have defied pundits and computers, dominating the NL East and sporting the best record in baseball, at 25-11. Their 8 1/2 game lead in the NL East isn’t insurmountable, but it’s pretty impressive at this point in the season. No other division leader has more than a two-game lead right now! Sadly, the two teams expected to be Atlanta’s toughest competition, the Phillies and Mets, are still behind, at 9 1/2 and 11 1/2 games back, respectively. Naturally, the success of the Braves and the struggles of Philadelphia and New York changed the way the last-stop project moved.
ZiPS Median Projected Standings – NL East
| The team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | play% | WS Win% | 80 of | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Atlanta Braves | 93 | 69 | – | .574 | 68.4% | 17.2% | 85.6% | 9.7% | 100.8 | 85.7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 85 | 77 | 8 | .525 | 20.8% | 31.9% | 52.7% | 4.8% | 92.3 | 78.0 |
| The New York Mets | 79 | 83 | 14 | .488 | 5.8% | 17.5% | 23.3% | 1.3% | 85.6 | 71.9 |
| Miami Marlins | 76 | 86 | 17 | .469 | 4.8% | 14.9% | 19.6% | 0.6% | 84.6 | 70.0 |
| Washington Nationals | 67 | 95 | 26 | .414 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 73.5 | 59.5 |
That’s a big sea change from the start of the season. Of course, Atlanta doesn’t look like it will continue to play this well all the way through. We’re a little over a month into the season, and we should expect some slowdown from the Braves as they play more games.
But just because things will be normal doesn’t mean that nothing has changed. I’m not sure if Dominic Smith is the guy with the 157 wRC+, or if Martín Pérez is the first person in history to discover the secret to maintaining a sub-.200 BABIP, but there are some things about this team that I’m willing to believe. Matt Olson has had tremendous seasons in the past, and when healthy, Chris Sale is one of the best hitters in baseball. Ozzie Albies won’t hit .330 this season, but he he did put together the second-most WAR as a second baseman from 2018 to 2023, behind only Jose Altuve, so we’ve seen enough of him in the past to believe that this is a real comeback campaign to replace the magic of the first season.
To get a better idea of what’s real and what’s not, here are the ZiPS projections for the hitters on Atlanta’s Depth Charts, compared to their preseason projections.
ZiPS Projections – Braves Hitters Now vs. Preseason
Even with the skepticism of a few players, there are more pros than naysayers here. Of all the major league hitters expected to get a plate appearance over the course of the season, the Braves have nine of the top 100, which is more than you’d expect if you weren’t expected. Only three players – Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski – have had big hits, but they still seem like real contributors, though I worry about Riley personally.
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How does that compare to other groups? Using the Depth Charts for the rest of the season to play time estimates and using both recent and preseason projections for that projected playing time, we can get an idea of which teams have changed something and which teams have not.
ZiPS Projections – Team Hitters Now vs. Preseason
| Name | Rest-of-Season wRC+ | Preseason wRC+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| The brave ones | 112.2 | 108.9 | 3.3 |
| The Astros | 107.5 | 105.3 | 2.1 |
| Cardinals | 100.9 | 99.3 | 1.6 |
| The Yankees | 115.8 | 114.4 | 1.4 |
| Cubs | 111.4 | 110.1 | 1.3 |
| The guards | 102.3 | 101.1 | 1.2 |
| Tigers | 106.0 | 105.0 | 1.0 |
| Pirates | 103.8 | 103.2 | 0.6 |
| Marlins | 100.1 | 99.5 | 0.6 |
| White Sox | 98.2 | 97.7 | 0.4 |
| Foreigners | 94.9 | 94.6 | 0.3 |
| Radiation | 99.3 | 99.2 | 0.1 |
| Diamondbacks | 102.6 | 102.5 | 0.1 |
| The Dodgers | 120.3 | 120.3 | 0.1 |
| Brewers | 103.9 | 103.9 | 0.0 |
| Sailors | 112.2 | 112.9 | -0.7 |
| Angels | 97.9 | 98.5 | -0.7 |
| The Rockies | 91.5 | 92.3 | -0.7 |
| The Royals | 101.9 | 102.7 | -0.8 |
| Blue Jays | 106.2 | 107.1 | -0.9 |
| The Orioles | 112.9 | 113.9 | -0.9 |
| Twins | 104.6 | 105.9 | -1.3 |
| Athletics | 108.6 | 110.1 | -1.5 |
| Red | 99.8 | 101.5 | -1.8 |
| The guards | 105.4 | 107.3 | -1.9 |
| Phillies | 106.8 | 108.7 | -1.9 |
| Padres | 107.5 | 109.7 | -2.2 |
| Red Sox | 101.2 | 103.5 | -2.3 |
| Giants | 104.3 | 107.3 | -3.0 |
| The Mets | 110.3 | 114.4 | -4.0 |
Atlanta’s offensive projection is more advanced than any other team, so it’s not just smoke and mirrors producing these results. At the risk of digressing from the topic, the 14-22 Astros’ second-highest projection is an inconvenient data point for the team’s struggling staff. On the other hand, even if you are generally confident that the Phillies and Mets (and Red Sox) will right the ship, the projections are less optimistic than in March.
Let’s repeat the operation with jars:
ZiPS Projections – Braves Pitchers Now vs. Preseason
ZiPS is sure that Atlanta’s offensive development is legit, but it’s less so when it comes to the pitching staff. I’m already wrong about Pérez, but ZiPS is also skeptical about Bryce Elder’s interference. Overall, it still sees rotation as a risk, even though it is more powerful than the other team cuts.
(For those curious, the most improved hitter and pitcher in baseball, from a hypothetical perspective, are Chase DeLauter and Mason Miller, respectively.)
ZiPS Projections – Team Pitchers Now vs. Preseason
| The team | Rest-of-Season ERA+ | Preseason ERA+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 102.9 | 100.3 | 2.5 |
| The Yankees | 104.3 | 101.9 | 2.4 |
| Phillies | 115.5 | 113.3 | 2.2 |
| Brewers | 105.5 | 103.3 | 2.2 |
| The Dodgers | 111.4 | 109.6 | 1.8 |
| Blue Jays | 109.2 | 107.4 | 1.8 |
| The Mets | 105.0 | 103.3 | 1.7 |
| Marlins | 101.3 | 99.8 | 1.5 |
| Angels | 95.2 | 94.0 | 1.3 |
| White Sox | 91.6 | 90.4 | 1.2 |
| Pirates | 111.5 | 110.5 | 1.1 |
| The Rockies | 96.5 | 95.5 | 1.0 |
| Tigers | 107.8 | 107.0 | 0.8 |
| Cubs | 100.2 | 99.6 | 0.5 |
| Sailors | 104.7 | 104.5 | 0.1 |
| The guards | 95.5 | 95.4 | 0.0 |
| Twins | 102.7 | 102.8 | -0.2 |
| The brave ones | 106.9 | 107.2 | -0.4 |
| Giants | 105.2 | 105.6 | -0.4 |
| The guards | 109.4 | 109.9 | -0.5 |
| Red | 96.3 | 96.8 | -0.5 |
| Diamondbacks | 106.8 | 107.4 | -0.6 |
| The Orioles | 101.6 | 102.3 | -0.7 |
| The Astros | 104.3 | 105.3 | -1.0 |
| Athletics | 94.2 | 95.2 | -1.0 |
| Radiation | 105.1 | 106.3 | -1.2 |
| Cardinals | 97.7 | 99.0 | -1.4 |
| Foreigners | 89.8 | 91.1 | -1.4 |
| The Royals | 101.0 | 102.6 | -1.6 |
| Red Sox | 108.5 | 110.6 | -2.1 |
It’s funny to see the Phillies so high on this list, but they’ve allowed a .349 BABIP over 35 games, a ridiculously high number that can’t be maintained. One can see why the Yankees and Padres were so strong early on, though their success is a story for another day.
Is the NL East race really over? Assumptions and Betteridge’s rule of thumb say no. But it is true that the Braves investigated the script. It’s not over with the Mets or Phillies as the vibes indicate, but if he’s going to make a comeback, he better start soon. Otherwise, they will run out of calendar immediately.
