April always gives us a few rising stars. In May, the real challenge begins in finding out who will be the next big jump in performance. This season has already brought a lot of surprises. Veterans, like Mike Trout, who was left for dead, are suddenly producing high numbers again. Young hitters, like JJ Wetherholt or Kevin McGonigle, come in and have an immediate impact. This week, our Hitter Profiles will delve into the box scores, looking for clues to what’s next. Bat speed benefits. Start angle changes. Improvement of the chase rate. Some players are building legitimate skill growth while others are riding uncontrollable heaters fueled by increased HR/FB levels. Sometimes the next burst hides in a hitter with a .240 average but excellent contact quality. The aim is to identify the stars of the future before the end of the league games. So let’s dig into the underlying data, separate the noise from the skill, and find out where the next thing might be coming from.
JJ Bleday
JJ Bleday is starting to look like one of the more interesting relievers available in fantasy baseball. Over the past two weeks, the base metrics have been elite in all of MLB with a top-20 exit velocity, 13th in barrels, and eighth in hit rate. That quality connection has translated into production, with a projected .375 batting average, four home runs, and a walk-to-strikeout ratio during that span. If Bleday controls the zone like this, the former No. 4 pick suddenly starts to look like the hitter prospect scouts dreamed of out of Vanderbilt. The opportunity is running out, too. Since arriving in Cincinnati following the injury to Eugenio Suárez, Bleday has not only forced in at-bats every day, but has also climbed two holes in front of Elly De La Cruz. That roster spot could be huge in terms of fantasy value if it sticks. Hitting in front of one of baseball’s most versatile run producers creates a path to more runs scored, while pitchers may be less willing to absorb De La Cruz coming behind him. The Reds have apparently taken note of recent reports around the club suggesting that Cincinnati views him as the current best option between Friedl and De La Cruz because of how well he swings the ball. The playing time outlook improved recently after the club optioned Rece Hinds back to Triple-A, leaving Bleday with a clear path to first.
Before being called up, Bleday was already forcing the issue in Triple-A with a commanding slash line of .341/.462/.659. The benefits of plate orientation are seen in conjunction with strong connections, and those are often signs that support a stable fracture. There will still be some batting-average volatility because Bleday’s swing can be difficult and pitchers will eventually be right, but the power looks very real now. For fantasy purposes, Bleday profiles as the best short-term value available in most leagues. Daily role, priority program position, and communication quality data all point to continued use in the following month. If the method works, there is a way for this to be more than just a temporary hot streak. The talent has always been there. The difference now is that chance and swing decisions are ultimately aligned.
Michael Garcia
The Fantasy owners used an aggressive draft pick to acquire Maikel Garcia this spring, as the versatile outfielder usually goes off the board in the sixth round. The early return, however, left many frustrated as production lagged behind expectations. Before fantasy managers get excited and move on to investing in the downside, it’s worth digging into the two pillars of Garcia’s legendary profile between power and speed. Starting with the energy department, the past two weeks have quietly revealed dramatic changes underneath. Garcia ranks sixth in baseball in square footage during that span and is one of four players in the top 10 with a fast-swinging rate north of 20%. The company is notable for Adolis García, Jake Burger, and Juan Soto. That’s a group of hitters who can change a game with one swing, and while Garcia can’t suddenly turn into a 35-homer bat, the underlying traits point to legitimate potential. Perhaps even more encouraging, Garcia’s batting average has increased for the third straight season and is now near league average. Combined with his patient approach and improved contact quality, there’s enough here to pave the way for 18 to 20 homers in a full campaign. That may not sound like much of an option in today’s powerhouse, but when paired with his solid foundation, it’s a very impactful legendary profile.
On the speed side, there is no reason to worry. Garcia’s run speed has remained the same and his stolen base efficiency has also held up. A slow start just creates fewer opportunities to run. As he continues to reach base consistently, stolen bases should naturally follow. All in all, Garcia seems to be returning to the dream managers of hard-target players on draft day. Basic data suggests that the widening gap may be closer than many realize. If another manager in your league has already injured him, the transfer window may not stay open for long.
Cole Young
Cole Young has had a quiet start to the season for the Seattle Mariners, and on the surface, not much jumps off the page. Through 39 games, Young is hitting .272 with three homers and two steals in four attempts. With a highly regarded former first-round pick, those numbers may feel underwhelming at first glance. Fantasy bosses looking to get out quickly may be expecting more impact now. Dig deeper, though, and there are signs that Young may be laying the foundation for a solid second half. His basic profile is beginning to change in encouraging ways. Compared to last season, Young increased his barrel rate by nearly three percent while adding another ten points to his hard hitting average. Those are tangible benefits for a player whose offensive profile has long revolved around bat control, tackling, and athleticism more than pure power output. The distribution of the batted ball is improving as well. Young slightly increased his launch angle while cutting down on ground balls in favor of more line drives. That may not sound surprising, but it’s often the first step in a young hitter’s power development. Currently, many of those additional line drives simply convert to solid contact and double. As he continues to refine his swing and learn which pitches he can consistently lift, it’s reasonable to expect some of those line drives to eventually become home runs.
There are also indications that speed production may occur. The junior stole 20-plus bases twice during his major league career, so the current double-steal pace has probably sold his athleticism. Part of that comes down to chance. If the on-base percentage improves as the quality of contact continues to trend upward, the total stolen base rates should naturally follow. Historically, the Mariners have been willing to let players run, especially if they are sitting. From a fantasy perspective, Young still profiles as a center fielder in deeper leagues rather than a true superstar. His statistical similarities to players like Bryson Stott and Jonathan India feel right now as players who provide value with limited production rather than special-class juice. But recent batting developments suggest there may be another level to come. If the contact benefits continue and the power increases, he could quietly become a very useful center fielder in a variety of formats by the end of the season.
