Last Sunday, the White Sox defeated the Tigers, 2-1, to complete a weekend sweep of Chicago’s South Side. With their win, they took their chances of qualifying to 20.3%. It was the first time those odds have been above 20% since April 12, 2023. The Sox fell back under the 20% mark on Monday with the Twins loss, and enter their weekend series against the Phillies in Philadelphia with a 17.4% chance of reaching the postseason, so it’s too early to call it a reality.
But unlike other American League clubs that got off to an unexpected hot start, like the Rays and Guardians, Chicago’s underperformance backs up its strong showing thus far. The White Sox surpassed their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records by just one win. The Rays are six and seven wins ahead of their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records, respectively, while the Rangers surpassed their Pythagorean record with three wins and their BaseRuns mark by five. The A’s, another surprising AL team in the first two months of the season, endured a painful 2-7 slump to close out May and move their record closer to their peripherals. Still, all three of those teams enter the weekend with a better chance of winning than the White Sox: Rays at 83.1%, Rangers at 77.7%, and A’s at 37.4%. That makes sense. Remember, Pythagorean and Group BaseRuns only record what has already happened. Our Playoff Odds project future performance and include more than the first 10 weeks of play. Understanding that shouldn’t dampen the excitement Sox fans are feeling right now; if anything, it should give them great motivation to enjoy their team’s success while they can, however long it lasts.
That’s the last you’ll read about the 2026 White Sox in this week’s mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about baseball’s best talent delivery system, whether the Mets are paying more per win than any team ever, the new Hall of Fame is issuing a golden ticket, and more. But first, I’d like to remind you that this post bag is only available to FanGraphs members. If you are not yet a Member and would like to continue learning, you can sign up for Membership here. It’s the best way to experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with tons of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question about a future mailbag, email me at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
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