41 years old Max Scherzer has been on the 15-day disabled list for about a month with a combination of right arm tendinitis and left ankle sprain. The five games he played for the Blue Jays before coming to the IL were a mixed bag. Scherzer allowed one run in six innings in his season debut on March 31, then allowed two runs in six more innings on April 18. However, Scherzer failed to complete three innings in his other three starts, either due to injury or inactivity.
Despite his lackluster results this year, Scherzer will be a valuable piece of rotation depth upon his return from IL. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling reports that Scherzer threw nearly 30 pitches in yesterday’s bullpen session. The Jays are considering another bullpen or dealing with live hitters as the next step, followed by a rehab assignment. According to the team’s injury tracker on MLB.com, Scherzer is in line to return in early- to mid-June. A return to the latter side may be a reality if a veteran needs to start over in three or four.
The depleted state of Toronto’s rotation depth is well known at this point. Shane Bieber has been in IL since late March with right elbow inflammation. Cody PonceHis comeback started once before he was sidelined with an ACL injury until next year. Recently, Eric Lauer was traded to the Dodgers again José Berríos he had Tommy John surgery, putting him out until the middle of next year. The fact that Toronto offers starts Patrick Corbinwho had a 5.47 ERA from 2021-25, speaks to the Blue Jays’ need for rotation depth.
None of this takes away from the overall performance of the rotation. The team’s 3.86 ERA is ninth-best in the Majors, while their 4.9 fWAR ranks sixth-best. Dylan Cease (2.0 fWAR) and Kevin Gausman (1.8) are in the Top 10 of professional starters. Trey Yesavage has a 1.07 ERA in five starts since returning from injury and has yet to allow a home run. Instead, it’s the back of the rotation that needs strengthening.
Spencer Miles it was a Rule 5 pick this offseason. While he has a 2.17 ERA in 14 appearances, there are risks for anyone with little league experience (14 2/3 innings from 2022-24) and two major injuries (back injury and Tommy John surgery). Miles also made his first start in the Majors and went 4 1/3 innings and 63 pitches in any appearance.
As for Corbin, he has a 3.86 ERA in nine starts including today. However, there is no reason to believe that will be sustainable. Corbin has been a below-average pitcher with an ERA- every season since 2020. Despite his slightly underutilized curveball, his velocity is low compared to 2025. Meanwhile, the average exit speed of Corbin’s opponents has remained steady, with a 4.2% increase and an expected connection rate of 6.3.
Scherzer comes with age and injury risks, though it’s hard to argue that someone with his track record and postseason experience wouldn’t at least be a viable starting depth. Bieber is a long way from being back, but he’s probably more important to the Jays than Scherzer. Bieber had a 3.57 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Although he allowed more home runs than usual, Bieber showed his signature control by walking just 4.4% of batters. He also made ground balls at an above-average rate of 48.2%, just above his career number of 46.4%.
According to a separate report from Zwelling, Bieber will begin rehab on Monday. He will aim for two innings in the Complex League, then go three innings in his next outing. Toronto’s injury report says Bieber is expected to return in late June, suggesting he will have a longer rehab time than Scherzer. That would mean Bieber is only putting in half a season in the Majors, but that would still be Bieber’s largest sample size since 2023, when he made 21 Guardians.
If everyone had been healthy, Cease, Yesavage, and Gausman would have occupied the first three rotation spots. They could be followed by Bieber and Scherzer, with Miles continuing as a firefighter from the ‘barn and Corbin as a tall firefighter. More injuries could change that picture, of course, but the return of the Jays’ starting depth will go a long way toward ensuring they stay in the championship hunt as the season progresses.
Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images
