Logan Webb he’s struggling this year, even if you don’t count the disaster start on Opening Night (which aired on Netflix to no one’s satisfaction), his ERA would be 4.40 in 43 IP (actually, 5.06 ERA in 48 IP). McCovey Chronicles makes a big difference that Logan Webb’s best days may be behind him because of the heavy lifting he did in his 20s (somehow he’s not yet 30!). Another explanation I’ve seen floating around is the introduction of the automated ball strike (ABS) challenge system, which has had an impact on. increased foot traffic and especially front-hitting pitchers who “steal” strikes out of the zone like Webb.
What made Logan Webb’s results even more puzzling was that there was no significant drop in his arsenal. The velocity of his pitches is the same, the pitch model grades haven’t changed that much (111 Pitching+ in 2025, 109 Pitching+ in 2026), so it’s hard to see much of a difference there. If you think “well, he’s a ground ball player who relies on balls in play, which means he’s prone to random fluctuations in BABIP”, his BABIP is actually LOWER in 2026 than last season (.346 in 2025, .333 in 2026). One thing I noticed was a change in the bat tracking metrics to the batters facing his pitches.
Earlier I wrote about using bat tracking metrics to evaluate pitchersand this is a great opportunity to see if hitters do something different against Logan Webb’s pitches, especially his bread-and-butter sinker:
Above are Logan Webb’s tracking metrics from 2024 against his top five challengers. It is organized by type and year, so you can see the change from year to year in each of his areas. What stands out to me is the increase in bat speed in 2026 compared to his sinker (line 4). Squared-Up rate per contact is down this year for that pitch, but you can see how the bat speed is consistent with his other pitches, compared to how the bat speed near his 2026 sinker goes into the red. That shows hitters are getting better swings from their sinker than ever before, and the faster swing speed is why his sinker is the most hit of his career.
Logan Webb’s analysis gets to a point I touched on in the first article last season: Bat-tracking statistics can give us better insight into how a pitcher is doing in controlling the quality of contact. To better understand this, let’s put on our Joe Morgan/John Smoltz hat for a moment, and think about the things these battered baseball mushers might talk about when discussing a “contact-control” pitcher. They can explain that a pitcher can “have a hitter in a rocking chair,” meaning that hitters are always underperforming, and can’t drive the ball even when making contact. Then, in the next inning, the batter would hit the ball and roll it to the shortstop, and John Smoltz would talk about how the pitcher “caused” the mishit. These were old-time platitudes at the time, but with the introduction of bat tracking, can we measure how much a pitcher is causing mishits, or putting hitters in the rocking chair?
To do this, I pulled all competitive swing data since 2024, and calculated the established bases of how fast a hitter tends to swing at a certain type of pitch (average swing speed), and how often the hitter lands on that pitch on contact (double/contact rate). For some player’s games where the hitters are swinging less than usual, I have given a high score for the “Rocking Chair Factor”. On a player’s pitch where the batsmen were pitching a little higher than expected on that type of pitch, I gave the pitch a high “Mishit Factor” score. Taking those scores, I would rank all the 2026 starters based on the “Rocking Chair Score” and the “Mishit Factor”:
The chart above can be accessed online here. I think it quickly passes some sniff tests; Shohei, Paul Skenes, and Nolan McLean in the upper right (good hitters), Lance McCullers, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Tomoyuki Sugano in the lower left (bad pitchers), and whatever Zack Littell is doing down there, you don’t want to go near him because he’s been one of the worst starters this year. Seth Lugo and Bryce Elder being on the right side of the Rocking Chair Score is good, as they are hitters who “attract” the lazy fly balls caused by hitters who don’t swing much. A couple of interesting things that stand out for me is Will Warren’s look in the bottom left corner in a bad place, but more importantly, the man who started it all, Logan Webb, is actually making a good run this way!
Was it just because his previous score was so high that it felt like a drop? I still see that the diver misses the goal which I will take as a consolation prize. Either way, this won’t be the last time we go through it [Rod Serling voice] Bat Tracking-Verse.
