Up is down. Left to right. Good is bad. Appearance is often everything in life, except that pants with zipper pockets are important. No other answer is acceptable. Did you keep your dream league standings? Turn it upside down. Voila! Hate the way you look in the mirror? Rotate! Terrorist or freedom fighter? It depends on which side of the wall you are on. Nathaniel Lowe The Cincinnati Reds have had a great start to the season for Nathaniel Lowe, but he’s been pretty good for most of his career, so the question of whether we should care about good baseball is like, “Are you lifting, bro?”
Lowe is 30 years old, 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Tampa Bay Rays selected Lowe in the 13th round of the 2016 MLB draft. Traded to the Texas Rangers in 2020, he spent four seasons in Texas before being traded to the Washington Nationals. After being released in August, the Boston Red Sox signed him to a one-year contract. The Reds then signed Lowe before the start of the season.
Throughout his minor league career, his plate discipline has been excellent with double-digit walk numbers and strikeout rates typically in the high league. There was no velocity and the power eventually improved, going from an ISO of .138 to over .200 in 2018.
Lowe made his MLB debut in 2019 with the Rays, making 169 plate appearances and producing seven home runs, 24 runs batted in, and 19 RBI. The walk rate was 7.7%, the strikeout rate was 29.6% and the ISO was .191. A .263/.325/.454 slash is topped by a .340 BABIP.
For the Rays, the ISO was .191 and .209.
He became a full-time player in 2021 with the Rangers, earning more than 600 plate appearances in four of five seasons. Another season ended with 565 plate appearances. He did a yeoman’s job during that span, hitting between 16 and 18 home runs in four of five seasons. 2022 was a career year with 27 home runs and a slash of .302/.358/.492. That was the only time he hit over .300 in his career, aided by a .363 BABIP.
With the Rangers, the ISO was in the .150 range, except for 2022 and 2024, where it was .191 and .136.
This season, the ISO is .333 in 77 plate appearances! The obvious thought is that backsliding is coming, but I’m not a lazy Son. Let’s dig in first.
His average exit velocity is 91.1 mph, the highest number since his rookie season. His 13.9 degree launch angle is a career high while his 15.1% barrel rate is his highest since 2020, the second season with the Rays in which he posted a .191 ISO. The strikeout rate of 50.9% is also a career high and is above 46% for the first time.
In the last two seasons, his bat speed was 73.3 and 72.7 mph. This season, it’s 74.3 mph.
That’s not bad, yo.
If you look at batted ball data, Nathaniel Lowe hits more line drives and fewer ground balls. The flyball rate is down 3% from last season, so a 33.3% HR/FB is probably unsustainable. Or is it? The draw rate of 47.2% is a career high by a wide margin, compared to 34.6% previously.
If you look at Baseball Savant’s park features, Great American Ball Park is second only to Coors Field for left-handed hitters. In home runs, it ranks third!
A walk rate of 10.4% is within industry norms. The 20.8% strikeout rate is a career best and is 5.3% lower than last season and nearly 2% lower than the previous three seasons. BABIP is only .277, so a .275/.351/.609 slash seems about right. If anything, Lowe has been a little unlucky.
Lowe was batting about fifth in the order. Now, Lowe has seen increased playing time due to Eugenio Suarez’s injury, and Suarez could return in a few weeks. That means he was seriously injured, and those are known to drain and last a long time. Furthermore, Suarez is only on a one-year contract and has not been playing well to begin with, posting a 30% strikeout rate and a .132 ISO. Even if Suarez returns, Suarez and Lowe will likely form a loony platoon at DH, with Lowe on the tight end. Lowe has a 200 wRC+ and a .390 ISO against right-handed pitching. BABIP is .342, though. Suarez has a 79 wRC+ against righties with a 92 wRC+ against lefties.
