In the 2026 fantasy baseball season, each team has nearly 100 games down and about 60 games remaining after the first 17 weeks of the season. Since even 100 games aren’t enough to draw any conclusions, we’ll spend this midseason post looking at the risers and fallers in fantasy baseball from an under-the-hood statistical perspective.
Despite a long Spring Training and seventeen weeks of meaningful games, this production number isn’t much information to use when evaluating players throughout the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, player placement, team breakdown, and other factors when trying to decide what to do with a tough player selection.
This piece will take a look at some of the MLB assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall over the past few weeks. Hopefully this will give us an idea of what to do with these players going forward.
FINALLY! Manny Machado is finally hitting like the mashing third baseman we know and love. Over the past 14 days, he is hitting .353 with four home runs and eight RBI to finally get his batting average over .200 this season. Overall, he is hitting .204/.294/.433 with 22 home runs and 59 RBI. Anyone paying attention to Machado’s underdog metrics probably saw this coming.
Machado has the slowest starting record in his 14 seasons. But he always answers it. Machado has not had a batting average below .275 or a slugging percentage below .450 since 2019. So the fact that he started his first 90 games with a batting average below the .200 slash line is concerning, but not the end of the world.
Machado is only 33 years old and has a solid track record to back up his ratings, and his power (22 home runs) is back this season. Machado’s BABIP is one of the lowest in the league at .202. For his career, Machado is above the Major League average at .298 and has never hit below .265 in a season.
With that in mind, you have to think that with such a low rate in his first four months, his last two would have to be at or above his career .298 average all the way. With that better batting luck, the power and run production has started to come back, especially in the last two weeks. With a walk rate of 11% and a strikeout rate of 21.5%, it is clear that Machado sees the ball moving well at the plate.
Dillon Dingler (C), Detroit Tigers
Dillon Dingler proves you can have an elite season and STILL be in line for more great rebounds. Dingler is, arguably, the Tigers’ best player in four months of 2026, but it could be even better. Entering the Tigers game on Monday night, Dingler led the Tigers in home runs, RBI, slugging rate, and several other stats. He was also in the top five in WAR. Dingler has 21 home runs and 63 RBIs in just 379 plate appearances, despite being taken well after the first 250 hitters in the spring draft.
But Dingler has a .291 BABIP, which is just about league average. According to Statcast, his expected batting average (.288) and expected wOBA (.380) are both higher than his actual numbers (.272 and .372 currently).
Dingler’s average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, barrel rate, and strikeout rate all increased slightly compared to his numbers from last year and in the minors. Where he goes through his past numbers he is at the communication door, he has a special sign. Dingler is now at a 91% strikeout rate, about 3.5 percentage points above his career mark. If all this continues and he starts to improve, Dingler’s best season could be historic.
Jake Bauers (1B/OF), Milwaukee Brewers
Jake Bauers has become one of baseball’s most exciting values for the 2026 season because he has transformed into a legitimate power contributor in the middle of the order. So far in the 2026 season, Bauers has posted a .259/.366/.489 slash line with 18 home runs, 59 RBI, 57 runs scored, and six stolen bases. That gives him an impressive .855 OPS and 135 wRC+, both career-best numbers. He’s had a lot of ups and downs in his career, but he’s found a place to hit in Milwaukee.
The reason fantasy managers overlooked him is that Bauers entered the year with a career .672 OPS and never fully developed into the power hitter he was expected to be. However, his 2026 production showed a completely different hitter. He starts low, drives the ball hard, and contributes in many phases. His combination of strength, patience, and just enough speed made him more valuable than his spring slot suggested.
Bauers is in a bit of a slump right now (no home runs since July 11), but we know his potential could be unleashed at any time in that home park.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Kyle Tucker (OF), Los Angeles Dodgers
Uhhhh, stop. It’s been a while since we’ve had a conversation about a significant offseason addition for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kyle Tucker and his .238/.332/.363 line (and another 0-for-4 game on Wednesday) with seven home runs and six steals are far from what the Dodgers wanted when Tucker signed a four-year, $240 million contract this offseason. His BABIP, walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball rate, and flyball rate are all very similar to last year. So what keeps productivity down?
In addition to the rumors that Tucker is still somewhat injured, his barrel rate and exit velocity have dropped significantly this season. For a player with a career rate of 10.3%, his 5.6% this year is staggering. Combine that with low home runs to pitch the ball, and you have a recipe for a poor season. He’s gone from strong home run parks like Daikin Park and Wrigley Field to Dodger Stadium, so that works against him again.
For a player who turns 30 in six months and relies on his power/speed to succeed, he’s still searching for the all-around game that brought him so much success in 2021-2025. To this day, he is the star of the fantasy baseball season and the real life game.
Garrett Mitchell (OF), Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have the top two BABIP producers in the league through the first 90 days of MLB. Garrett Mitchell (.417) and Brice Turang (.329) have both had incredible luck this year, but Mitchell’s BABIP is 45(!) points higher than the next eligible closer. It’s time to pay the bill.
While both will see a setback coming at some point, it could hit Mitchell hard. He’s gotten a little older and slower, but he’s also lost the bat speed and plate behavior that defined the last few seasons of his career. What worries Mitchell is that if he doesn’t put the ball in play, he hits 32.4%, which is more than 5% last season. His exit velocity and slugging rate are both down from last season, putting his expected numbers significantly lower than his actual .280 average and .460 slugging rate.
Mitchell’s actual wOBA is .361, but his expected wOBA is just .354. That gap will start to look a lot worse if or when Mitchell’s BABIP and strikeout rate cause a regression to hit soon. No one has had such a BABIP in at least 15 years.
Jarren Duran (OF), Boston Red Sox
Despite the Boston Red Sox’s 15-game winning streak, Jarren Duran was unable to raise his performance to match the team’s performance. Simply put, Duran has been the most disappointing outfielder in MLB for most of 2026. After the 2024-2025 seasons, in which he hit .285/.342/.492 and .256/.332/.442, Duran hit .191/.254 with a 34/34 outfield rate.
So why exactly is Duran struggling so much? He still has solid stats with 13 home runs, 14 steals, and 52 RBI, but comes with a slugging percentage (38.2%) that is eight percentage points lower than last year. What leads to that? It looks like it’s mainly his rush rate.
Last season, Duran had a 31% pass rush rate on pitches outside the zone. This year, that number has increased to over 34.4%, resulting in a low 41% strikeout rate and a first strike rate of nearly 58%. That number won’t be able to continue if Duran wants to maintain his impressive season. His expected stats say some improvement could be ahead (.224 xBA), but for now, Duran is the most disappointing outfielder in fantasy baseball.
