In the 2026 fantasy baseball season, each team has about 65 games down and about 100 games to go after the first ten weeks of the season. Since even 60 games aren’t enough to draw any conclusions, we’ll spend this midseason post looking at the risers and fallers in fantasy baseball from an under-the-hood stat perspective.
Even with a long Spring Training and ten weeks of meaningful games, this production number isn’t really much information to use when evaluating players throughout the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, player placement, team breakdown, and other factors when trying to decide what to do with a tough player selection.
This piece will take a look at some of the MLB assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall over the past few weeks. Hopefully this will give us an idea of what to do with these players going forward.
No hitter has been hotter in Major League Baseball than Jarren Duran over the past 14 days. He has a .320 average and a .700 slugging percentage, to go along with his five home runs and 11 RBI in that span. He has as many home runs as the entire Red Sox team during a hot streak.
Duran has some things to worry about, namely a .423 BABIP and a 36% strikeout rate over the past two weeks, but I’m betting he’ll take those after nearly a season and a quarter to his sky-high expectations. Compared to last season, he has improved his batting rate, his opening angle, and his batting speed, all of which have helped him jump into the ranks of the fly ball.
There may be some setbacks in the coming days and weeks, but Duran seems to have settled into a place where he relies more on his power and uses his speed when necessary. Duran isn’t stealing during this two-week heater, but the fantasy baseball world can’t complain about that too much.
Casey Schmitt (1B/2B/3B/OF), San Francisco Giants
When Luis Arraez was signed to play second base for the San Francisco Giants this offseason, many saw it as foreshadowing the end of Casey Schmitt’s playing time in the Bay Area. Arraez would play second, Rafael Devers would start, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman would have the left side of the infield in Lockdown, and prized prospect Bryce Eldridge would soon be up to take over DH and first base in relief.
But then something happened. Schmitt started the season hitting well before Eddridge broke out, and Harrison Bader got hurt. He is hitting .282/.318/.524 with 12 home runs and five steals in 53 games at various locations.
The biggest difference for Schmitt in 2026 has been the quality of contact, especially hard contact. His barrel rate increased to 14.6%, a huge improvement from the 6.7% mark he put up as a rookie and well above the 9.0% rate he carried in 2025. At the same time, his strikeout rate rose to 45% after sitting at 34% in 2023, 320% and 20% to 202% in 2025. The gains directly translated into better expected numbers, with Schmitt posting career highs in xSLG and xwOBA while producing more hard hits when playing the ball.
Brent Rooker (OF), Athletics
If Brent Rooker wants to hit 30 home runs in four consecutive seasons, he has a lot of work to do between now and the end of September. He may also miss extending the season streak with at least 89 RBIs. The injury cost him a few weeks of games, and it looks like he’s been trying to get his production back since then. A few weeks ago, it was definitely working.
Rooker is currently hitting just .195/.278/.365 with eight home runs and 26 RBI. But those numbers are dwarfed by a BABIP of just .240 on the season. If Rooker had enough plate appearances to qualify, that number would be one of the 20 worst marks in the league.
The league average this season is around .291, so Rooker is 50 points away from even being average in that category. For his career, Rooker is hitting .314. That will start to change as life gets better. He has the right park and the right system protection to turn this around. Recently, it is starting to happen. Over the past seven days, Rooker is hitting .250/.294/.500 with a .300 BABIP.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Brandon Nimmo (OF), Texas Rangers
Brandon Nimmo’s strong start in the first few weeks of the 2026 season drew some attention, but lately, his numbers have dipped to average or below-average production.
Nimmo has been riding a wave of good luck fueled by a .305 BABIP that is above league average and inconsistent with his 21% strikeout rate. Because he’s not a top-speed threat who can beat infield singles or steal a lot of bases, Nimmo’s BABIP is a direct indicator of trends that tend to correct themselves over time.
The most alarming part of Nimmo’s early season profile is his strikeout rate. He’s swinging and not on the pitches he usually hits, which lowers his quality a lot. Normally, Nimmo covers his strikeouts with an elite walk rate, but his walks remain in the single digits (only about 8% in 2026), making him dependent on his unsteady luck.
If Nimmo’s BABIP reverses, that high strikeout rate will drag his batting average down to somewhere near his career number of .260, making him a struggling outfielder right now, but he could be worse.
Freddie Freeman (1B), Los Angeles Dodgers
Freddie Freeman, who is almost 37 years old, is nowhere near the fantasy baseball player he used to be. Freeman was a top-40 player in draft rooms, but ranked under 150 in rotisserie fantasy leagues this season. The reason? He is hitting just .266/.355/.458 with nine home runs and 32 RBI.
In comparison, teammate Andy Pages has 13 home runs and 50 RBIs. Freeman is still showing a little pop this season, but he’s been a big disappointment. Even with a .266/.355/.458 line, imagine where he would be if it weren’t for the eight hits and three home runs he’s had in his last six games.
Freeman’s Statcast numbers still seem to be very much in line with his career numbers, but his field goal percentage has dropped by more than two percent. He has no violence on the pitches in the general zone. That could change, of course, but for now, Freeman’s accomplishments keep him out of the top eight.
Bo Bichette (SS), New York Mets
The dream managers who drafted Bo Bichette are probably very frustrated right now. It’s starting to look like 2024 again. Like most Mets, it’s been bad for large parts of 2026. But the underlying metrics scream a low buying opportunity for Bichette, at least.
The biggest driver of his early season struggles has been his career-low .241 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For a player with a career BABIP north of .330 who regularly sprinkles line drives all over the field, this is a real statistical misfortune in 2026, rather than some kind of skill breakdown or misbehavior. He’s hitting the ball hard like in previous seasons (45.5% strikeout rate, 46.8% for his career).
While his luck on batted balls has faded, his walk rate has held above 7%, preventing his on-base percentage (OBP) from exploding completely. He also dropped to just a 16% strikeout rate, the second-best mark of his career. If a hitter maintains his vision and technique while suffering from batted ball luck, a good drop is possible, but it hasn’t happened to Bichette just yet. Over the past 14 days, he has been hitting .167/.245/.167.
