Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers still has a chance to play in the postseason this year.
Trading Skubal before the 2026 deadline makes sense for the Tigers. I think that is well established. Detroit has a losing record, less than a third of a chance to make the playoffs, and one of the best players in the league with an expiring contract. This is the perfect trade deadline scenario.
But things have gotten complicated in recent weeks. The Tigers are hot, going 25-16 since June 1. They finally look like the team that was destined to win the AL Central before the season started. Still, they’ll need to go 9-2 to even make the playoffs with a .500 record, underscoring the depth of the hole they dug themselves earlier in the year. Less than two weeks before this crucial decision point, the Tigers discovered a universal truth: Life is complicated.
The Tigers’ season started well enough. They came out of April with a 16-16 record and a good run differential. They even started May by taking two of three from the Rangers. But on May 4, Skubal arrived at IL with a loose elbow, the latest in a series of rotation accidents. They lost that night and began a brutal 4-21 that saw them sink to the worst record in baseball by the end of the month.
It wasn’t really Skubal’s absence that was the problem, as Jay Jaffe wrote at the time. In May, hitters posted the league’s worst wRC+ – nobody hit fewer homers, and only the Angels hit more. When the offense controlled the lead, it was quickly given up by a shallow bullpen, which turned into 24 meltdowns in May. There aren’t many brands of losing fun in baseball, but falling behind in a 1-0 game to end it is one of the most frustrating things. Attention understandably turned to Skubal’s return, and his seemingly inevitable departure at the deadline.
Then the calendar turned to June. The Tigers started the month by sweeping the first-place Rays, scoring 25 runs on 10 homers in three games, and haven’t cooled off since. Their 109 wRC+ over their last 41 games is the top 10 in baseball, and their 72 homers are the most of any team. The roster now has one of the top three in the lineup. Dillon Dingler (4.6) and Kevin McGonigle (4.0) each rank in the top 10 in WAR, while Riley Greene (2.8) ranks in the top 30. Colt Keith is on fire, hitting eight homers since June 1 after going the first two months of the season without a hit. The Tigers also recently acquired Gleyber Torres and his 127 wRC+ from a groin injury on Monday. Suddenly it’s a good, competitive program.
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The bullpen has also been better lately. Their 3.19 ERA since June 1 is fifth in the majors. It’s a shallow team, and the end of games can still feel like a bargain while Kenley Jansen is sporting a walk rate (14.7%) that is nearly double his career mark (7.9%). But the offense ended up scoring a few runs to help ease the pressure. In May, the Tigers bullpen faced the sixth-highest Leverage Index entering games; since June 1, they have faced the lowest of any team. Also, it’s not a big bullpen, and this is likely an area the Tigers will want to address at the deadline assuming they add. But they ask less of them these days.
A competitive lineup and bullpen are all the Tigers need for their rotation, which has allowed a few runs in the majors in this scorching heat. But that’s where the narrative of this title and the Tigers’ recent season has gotten more complicated. Casey Mize came up Sunday, looking to continue his breakout season (the 2.79 ERA and 2.62 FIP would each be career bests), but he left the game early with the same strain that has landed him in the IL twice this year; now he is every day. Jack Flaherty pitched Monday, hoping to build on a hot month (2.67 ERA and 3.25 FIP in seven starts since early June); pitched badly and was placed on the injured list with right flexor strain after the game. On Tuesday, Framber Valdez couldn’t get out of the first inning in an 11-2 loss to the Cubs; he’s not known for injuries, but he’s having the worst full season of his career, with a 4.57 ERA and 4.16 FIP in 20 starts.
Still, this has been one of the best rotations in the majors all season, as they’ve dealt with injuries and inconsistency. They can still be that going forward… assuming Skubal remains their man. He was beautiful. He had solid numbers in seven before the IL stint (2.70 ERA and 2.11 FIP), he had solid numbers in seven after the IL stint (2.97 ERA and 3.66 FIP), and I think he’ll have solid numbers all year, no matter who he’s pitching. He’s been hitting less homers, allowing 1.09 per nine innings, compared to 0.71 between 2022 and 2025. But his stuff and command metrics look the same, and he hasn’t given up too much hard contact or barrels overall. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s a sample-size blip, though it will certainly be something that teams test before the deadline.
And, while Skubal’s absence wasn’t a big problem for the Tigers in May, we can see that they played more like a playoff team on the days he was on the active roster:
We also see that the Tigers were perhaps unlucky at this point. That’s six games short of their pythagorean record – the largest margin of victory in the majors this year. That’s driven in part by a 10-17 record in one-run games. In games decided by more than one run, they are 37-37 with a +31 run differential; they are 20-12 with a +62 earned run differential since June 1. So the Tigers appear to be better than their record would indicate, and they are definitely benefiting. But at 6 1/2 behind Guardian and the White Sox in the Middle, and five behind the Red Sox for the third Wild Card, they’re running out of time to make this a legitimate playoff push.
The Tigers must gauge whether that long push from last season was worth it. They have a young, commanding core of a team that can compete for years to come. Trading Skubal would obviously help add to their future ambitions. They don’t technically need Skubal to reach the 2026 postseason. They’ll still have an above-average rotation without him (depending on the health of Mize and Flaherty), and some of the returning players could help them this year. And, even if they make it to October with Skubal, it doesn’t guarantee they’ll advance — the Tigers lost both games they pitched in last year’s ALDS. Holding on to a less-than-valuable trade chip to miss the postseason or get out early can create strong feelings and hot seats.
Still, this is a legitimate opportunity for the Tigers. This is a bird in the hand. It is a very important bird, too. Skubal probably doesn’t have long enough in Detroit to be considered the “best” player in franchise history, but he is a rare, era-defining player — one who is still in the prime of his career. This is the type of opportunity the front office tends to build around, not away from. A late-season comeback and a deep playoff run on the shoulders of a franchise icon should be something more than a long-term strength in team building. And the Tigers will likely extend Skubal a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning he’ll at least get another draft pick if he signs elsewhere (assuming the plan stays the same under the new CBA, of course). Sure, their midseason stumble raises questions about the team’s potential in 2026, but it should also raise questions about its potential in 2027 and 2028 and 2029. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, especially when a player like Skubal walks out the door.
