The Reds play in one of baseball’s most remarkable hitters’ fields, yet are well on their way to producing a below-average offense — as measured by wRC+ — for what would be the 16th straight season. Even setting aside park-adjusted stats like wRC+, Cincinnati ranked in the top half of MLB in total runs scored just five times in those 16 years and ranked in the top 10 twice. The Reds have never ranked higher than ninth in runs scored in that span, doing it twice (2021, 2023). They are 18th in the majors in runs scored since 2024.
The Reds are ranked ninth in home runs but are only 19th this season. They are near the bottom of the league in batting average (27th, at .229) and on-base percentage (25th, at .313). Their .396 slugging percentage is tied for 15th in MLB. Their overall wRC+ of 93 ranks 23rd.
There are a number of criminals who contribute to their lack of success in this regard. Eugenio Suarez He has yet to find his way back to the Great American Ball Park. A hunter Tyler Stephenson he has not performed anywhere close to his professional standards. A middle player TJ Friedlhis offensive struggles were so publicized (.179/.259/.256) that he was optioned to Triple-A — as a right-handed third baseman Noelvi Marte it was early in the season. Marte is only playing the right spot because of the Reds’ surprising acquisition decision It’s Bryan Hayes at last summer’s trade deadline; Hayes hit .142/.195/.225 in 147 games before going on the disabled list due to the back problems he’s had for several seasons.
Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and the rookie Sal Stewart they ran out the gate to announce their presence as the dreaded two in the middle. Stewart, however, has cooled off after a great start to his first full major league season. De La Cruz went on the injured list due to a pulled muscle on the first day of the month. He was given a timeline of two to four weeks and appears to be on that track.
Captain Terry Francona tells Reds beat that De La Cruz’s plan is to come off minor league rehab work this weekend (via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). The current plan is for De La Cruz to pitch five innings at shortstop Friday, a complete game Saturday at designated hitter, and a complete game Sunday. He could be started next Tuesday, but that will depend on how his hamstring responds to the recovery work.
Cincinnati’s offense struggled to push runs at the plate despite De La Cruz entering the bullpen. The Reds are 22nd in runs scored since De La Cruz’s shutout. Second baseman Matt McLain stepped up, playing shortstop every month this month in place of De La Cruz and slashing .270/.413/.595 in a small sample of 46 plate appearances during June. If McLain can sustain anything close to that level of production at second base once De La Cruz returns, it would go a long way toward strengthening what has been a struggling offense that has received little contribution from several positions.
Still, with so many regulars falling shy of their expected contribution rate, it’s surprising that Cincinnati has managed to avoid being ranked among the league’s worst offenses. The big off-season hurler – signed Suarez after the market didn’t agree to a long-term deal – has been missed so far. Their long effort to deliver Kyle Schwarber the return to his hometown didn’t work out, probably after ownership broke the $150MM guarantee he received from the Phillies. (The Orioles reportedly offered the same amount.)
Rather than moving on from the big fish they targeted (Schwarber) or acquired (Suarez) in free agency or many previously established regulars (eg Stephenson, Friedl), the Reds have been getting upset from unexpected sources. Cincinnati signed veterans at a bargain price – JJ Bleday, Nathaniel Lowe – and he won Dane Myers from the Marlins in exchange for a Double-A outfielder Ethan O’Donnellwho were not ranked in the organization’s top 30 prospects. Those three little additions have proven to be a godsend.
Bleday, who was signed to a $1.4MM major league contract, leads the pack in terms of strikeouts. Not only was he one of the Reds’ best hitters, the former top-five pick was one of the most productive hitters in all of Major League Baseball. Among the 258 hitters this season with at least 150 plate appearances, Bleday ranks fifth with a .586 slugging percentage. He is slashing .272/.367/.586 with 13 homers, 10 doubles, three triples, a 12.8% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate.
It’s the best season of Bleday’s big league career, though he had a solid full season in 2024, when he hit .243/.324/.437 with 20 homers for the A’s. Bleday is throwing the bat nearly three full miles per hour harder on average than he did during that 2024 season. He makes heavy contact because of it. His overall plate orientation profile is similar to his 2024-25 levels with the A’s. His 2026 strikeout rate and contact rates are very similar to those seasons, but Bleday is swinging more often (especially on pitches over the plate) and has dropped his swing rate by a few percentage points. However, in his words, the improved results are due to “a little bit of everything,” as he told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
“It’s hard to say what it really is,” Bleday said. “I’ve worked hard this offseason to be better than I was last year. I’m doing everything I can to put myself in a position to be a great everyday player again. It’s hard to pinpoint, but it’s nice to see the results.” (Wittenmyer also interviewed the A’s captain Mark Kotsay and a number of Bleday’s former teammates, none of whom were surprised to see him flourish elsewhere; (fans of both clubs are encouraged to check out the interviews in full.)
The signing of Bleday was a jackpot for the Reds. He has not only been effective in his new positions – he can manage two more years beyond the current campaign. The Reds can keep Bleday until 2028, though he will be owed a rising arbitration fee. If he can support even 75% or more of that output, that’s a no brainer.
There will be no future control for the 30-year-old Lowe, but that is the only complaint Reds fans can have with the way his signing has played out. Lowe struggled through four bad months with the Nationals last season before being released in August. He arrived with the Red Sox shortly thereafter, and in the final six weeks of the season he looked like the steady producer he had been with the Rangers the previous four seasons. Lowe’s record gave him a projected arbitration value of $13.5MM, so the Red Sox did not tender him. It seems no club was willing to give him a 40-man roster spot, as the Reds got him a minor league deal with a salary of $1.75MM.
Most teams around the league may be kicking themselves for passing. Lowe looks a lot better than he did with the Rangers from 2021-24. In those four years at Texas, he slashed a combined .274/.359/.432. With Cincinnati, he’s hitting .257/.351/.493 in 174 plate appearances. It helps to play in a hitter-friendly park, but Lowe’s .237 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is significantly higher than the .158 mark he posted in four years as a Ranger. He struck out nine batters on the season and walked in about 13% of his plate appearances.
Like Bleday, Lowe saw a huge increase in his bat speed. On average, it hasn’t led to huge gains in exit velocity or strikeout rate, but Lowe is striking out more balls than he ever has and throwing fewer pitches than ever. His production against four-seamers is actually down this year, but he’s been much better than usual against sinks, cutters and splitters while bouncing back in a big way from a couple of seasons down against the switch.
Myers, 30, hasn’t played as many games as his teammates and hasn’t. like produced in 117 innings, but a .263/.368/.394 line for a successful fourth outfielder is still going to be good. He’s used more against lefties than righties, but the Myers swing is solid against pitchers of handedness.
There is probably BABIP smoke and mirrors at work to some degree, but Myers is making a way to connect with the right people and is moving at a higher clip than at any point in his career. His 17.8% strikeout rate on balls outside the strike zone is tied for fifth among 339 batters who have made at least 100 plate appearances this season. Myers’ contact rate entering this season was 76.6%. This year, he is at 83.9%. He hasn’t had the big jump in bat speed that we’ve seen with Bleday and Lowe, but Myers makes a lot of contact in and out of the plate in the rare situations he’s in.
Myers has more control over the club than Bleday. He is not yet eligible for compensation but it will be the first time this winter. Cincinnati can control him for three more years, through the 2029 campaign. We’re looking at a very small sample size that includes a .343 average on balls in play, so there’s no sense in getting carried away with the idea that Myers could be a valuable piece moving forward, but he’s a decent runner with a 99th percentile arm in the outfield and solid range. He has the ability to play a useful role if he can continue this year’s gains in plate discipline, pitch selection and communication.
The Reds haven’t taken many free agent swings in recent years, especially when it comes to the roster. Those who did it – Suarez, Jeimer Candelario (three years, $45MM) – never panned out as hoped. Suarez still has time to turn that around and, to his credit, has hit home three times in his last six games. However, the lack of high-quality additions and a scattered track record of success with the big moves they make in free agency make it more important to have some success when buying in the trade category.
The Reds have been good at that this year, and they’re far from over Hunter Greene come back to join Chase Burns upon circulation. That will be a big boost to the rotation, but Cincinnati feels like a team that will need to add at least one bat at this year’s deadline. Even if they focus on the trade, it makes sense to bring in a controlled major league bat beyond the current season (as they tried to do last year with Hayes). The Reds currently have just six players who have made a mid-league offense, with a wRC+ rating: De La Cruz, Bleday, Stewart, Lowe, Myers and Spencer Steer. They certainly hope that a combination of Suarez, McLain and/or Marte can turn things around, but improvements behind the plate, in the outfield or at designated hitter still seem prudent.
