The 51-53 Padres took the first game of an important series against Wild Card contender Miami this evening. It is the coming together of two complementary clubs trying to stay in the play-off picture. The Padres have been one of the worst teams in the league for two months, and Miami is now riding a ten game losing streak that has left them a few games off the pace for the Wild Card.
Every game matters this time of year for bubble teams, whose front offices are weighing whether to prioritize development for the current season or look to the future. The Padres are in a very interesting spot, as they have a huge need to start pitching while also lining up a few marquee chips – none bigger than the best dice in sports, Mason Miller.
San Diego is four games back in the Wild Card race. Their latest game would appear to be toward a trade, but reports from Dennis Lin of The Athletic and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune indicate that the front office is still hoping to add. A lot could depend on the next three series, which could be won, so this could come down to deadline day.
After Miami, the Padres return home with six games against the Rockies (two) and Giants (four) until the deadline on August 3. They started the second half just 3-5, but a 5-3 showing in the next three games will get them back to .500 and possibly within two or three games of the Wild Card race.
The Padres could try to walk the line by acquiring a reliever or two while targeting manageable MLB talent in return. Miller will understandably get a lot of headlines, but on the left Adrian Morejon he can attract enough attention on his own. He’s an upcoming free agent, so he won’t fetch as many top prospects as it would take to move Miller, but Morejon would easily be the best deal available.
Lin writes that the Padres may be more willing to move Morejon than Miller at the deadline. That could come into play even if the Padres don’t actually trade, as they could try to flip him outright for a star or cash out Morejon for prospects while trading elsewhere in the batting order.
San Diego’s farm system is arguably the thinnest in MLB. Double-A catcher Ethan Salas their only high hope. That doesn’t mean they can’t trade down the farm, as teams will have varying levels of interest in mid-level talents like Cruz Schoolcraft, Kash Mayfield again Harvey. They’ll have an uphill battle in hitting the field with any top chips, though, especially if Salas isn’t on the table as their future starter. That’s especially true of the controllable first baseman, who the Padres could use but often comes at a high cost on the trade market.
Morejon would be a candidate for a $23MM qualifying offer if the Padres retain him at the end of the season. They are above the luxury tax line so they can return a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects the QO and signs elsewhere. They can certainly do better than that if he is sold.
The 27-year-old southpaw is the hardest-throwing lefty in the game. Morejon misses bats, gets ground balls at a higher rate, and is generally around the strike zone. His 3.26 ERA looks more good than exceptional, but that’s weighed down by one week in early April. Morejon posted an ERA under 3.00 in 2024 and ’25. He has a low-2.00s mark since mid-April. If he really isn’t there Aroldis Chapman or Josh Hader tier, he’s not too far below them among the best lefties.
San Diego’s bullpen has been used a lot all year. They took a few damage hits (eg Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adamagain David Morgan) and featured in the middle innings recently. The back-end trio of Miller, Morejon and a talented rookie Bradley Rodriguez still very hard to beat.
Morejon is the only eligible candidate for San Diego. Michael King he can get out of the postseason but is not QO eligible after getting one last year. Their other hires are mostly depth types, although the Padres will have interest in a first baseman France if they are going to sell. France is playing Gold Glove caliber defense for the second year in a row while having an offensive season, hitting .279/.333/.550 with 16 homers.
