The Giants are in a really tough situation right now. They are 16-24 this season, one of the worst records in baseball. Seasonal disappointment is something that happens to many teams but the current problems cast a long-term shadow as most disappointments come from the core of the long-term.
Despite an incredible 107-win season in 2021, the Giants have been a .500 club or worse for a decade now. They have tried to be aggressive recently, adding a number of big contracts to their books. Their three longest remaining ties are those Rafael Devers, Willy Adams again Matt Chapman. All three are underperforming, which could limit the club’s flexibility going forward. One big underwater contract is usually bad news for a team but three is clearly a bigger concern.
Devers is having the worst season of his career so far. He has a .232/.276/364 batting line and a 79 wRC+, which is 21% worse than the league average. That’s miles south of his career line, which is .274/.347/.502 and translates to a 125 wRC+. His 30.1% strikeout rate over threes is worse than his previous career high. His 6.1% walk rate would be the lowest in a full season. The struggles cannot really be blamed on luck. Devers has a .310 batting average on balls in play. That’s a little south of his .315 career mark but only slightly, and still above the league average of .289.
The Giants probably have to hope Devers is injured. Otherwise, trends are bad. Although he has been a productive hitter as recently as last year, there have been long-term concerns. His batting average was in the 68th percentile of professional hitters in 2023 but dropped to 61st in 2024 and 42nd last year. He is down to 38 so far in 2026.
At the same time, he has been under attack and gained little. 45% of the pitches Devers saw in 2023 were in the strike zone. That reached 47.2% in 2024, 48.6% last year and 50.6% this year. He’s been seeing fastballs and not-so-fastballs. In 2023, he was catching 59.8% fastballs and 16.3% offspeed. That average has changed to 64.9% fastballs and 12.6% offspeed this year. He connected on 76.2% of pitches in the zone in 2023, but that dropped to 71.9%, 71.4% and 69.4% in subsequent seasons.
Devers’ exit velocity and strikeout rate have remained strong for much of that stretch but have dropped off sharply this year. He is averaging 90.3 miles per hour at bat this year, more than three points below last year’s 93.5 mph. His hard hitting rate of 46.2% is well below last year’s clip of 56.1%. Last year, he still hurt four streak fastballs. Statcast gave him a 13 home run value as he hit .249 with a .512 slug. This year, he is a -2 with a .192 batting average and a .462 slug.
In short, teams don’t seem too afraid of Devers and don’t make them pay for it. Perhaps there is an illness that explains this. Devers has dealt with back, shoulder and hamstring problems in his career. A disc injury in his lower back had hampered him last year, although he did not go on the injured list for it.
If that’s not what’s happening here and Devers has just suddenly dropped at age 29, that’s a big concern for the Giants. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and doesn’t provide much defensive value. He wasn’t a good third baseman and it looks like he won’t be playing there again (at least not with any kind of regularity). He’s still getting used to the first base and hasn’t gotten good grades so far. He needs to hit to be useful to the Giants.
Adames is having his worst season at the plate. He has a .209/.242/.342 line and a 64 wRC+. His 3.6% walk rate is terrible and almost half of his previous career low, which was 7.9% in 2022. He’s always had a pretty good strikeout rate but this year’s 29.7% clip would be the worst for a full season. His strikeout rate, exit velocity and barrel rate are all down compared to last year.
Adames’ case is perhaps the most aggressive. He actually gets tossed around a bit while being more communicative overall. However, he only swings at first base 26.1% of the time, compared to a 30.9% career rate. He’s only swinging at 65.1% of pitches in the zone, compared to a career clip of 70.2%.
However you cut it, it’s not ideal, but Adames at least covers a premium spot at shortstop. Outs Above Average thinks the defense is worse this year but Defensive Runs Saved makes him trend higher. While Adames and Devers both struggle to hit, Adames should be less of a concern due to his ability to cover shortstop, at least for now.
Chapman’s case isn’t as bad as the other two but it’s still not good. His 9% walk rate and 22.9% strikeout rate are both close to league average, but he has one home run, a .235/.313/.322 line and an 86 wRC+. His 31.5% rate is down significantly from last year’s clip of 47.6%. Chapman’s glovework still gets strong reviews, though, so he’s never completely wasted.
The team’s results were not due to these three, as the performance was not satisfactory. However, in a sense, that is connected to these three major contracts. The Giants have seemed reluctant to spend money on depth recently, perhaps because most of their salary is tied up. In the last two seasons, their two years, $22MM deals Adrian Houser it was their biggest investment.
Making any kind of pivot will be very difficult, if not impossible. Chapman and Adames both have full no-trade protection. Even putting that aside, it’s not like they have a lot of value. Adames will make $28MM per year from 2027 to 2031, leaving $140MM due after the current season. Given his current form, no club will be willing to take him. Chapman makes $25MM annually through 2030, leaving $100MM on the deal after this season. He’s still a third-round pick but he just turned 33, so teams know the drop will come eventually.
Devers has no trade protection in his contract, which is why the Giants were able to acquire him from the Red Sox. But the deal runs until 2033 and it’s not cheap. Theoretically, he earns about $30MM per year remaining, although $7.5MM is deferred annually and will be paid out until 2043. Even if a team were willing to get him, the Giants’ vision would be difficult. With his stock low, they will get something less than what they just gave up for Devers last year, when they shipped. Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs III, Jose Bello again Jordan Hicks. At this point, they will probably have to eat a large portion of the deal just to get anything significant.
It’s a tough place for a baseball operations president Buster Poseyfingerprints are on all three contracts, although only one of them was technically signed under his watch. The Giants originally signed Chapman to a three-year contract through the 2024 season. At the time, Posey was on the club’s board of owners and Farhan Zaidi was president of baseball operations. In September of 2024, the Giants signed Chapman to a six-year, $151MM extension. Reporting at the time indicates that Posey was involved in negotiating the agency with Chapman. Posey replaced Zaidi soon after. Adames was signed a few months later. The Giants traded for Devers a few months later.
There are no easy answers. Presumably, the Giants don’t want to start a massive rebuild when they’ve already struggled over the past decade. Even if they wanted to, they are determined to be right now. In addition to the three really big deals, they pay Jung Hoo Lee good amount of money in 2029 too Logan Webb through 2028. Houser and Harrison Bader they will make big salaries until next year. They spent a lot of money to hire Tony Vitello as their manager this year. In addition to his $3.5MM salary, they paid the University of Tennessee $3MM to buy out his contract and still paid Bob Melvin $4MM this year after they picked up his contract option and fired him.
Internal assistance may not be available. The farm is not considered a disaster but is generally ranked among the top 30 teams in the league. Most of their top prospects are juniors. Addressing the roster’s weak spots using free agency probably isn’t possible either, based on how the club has appeared to hit the brakes since adding Chapman, Adames and Devers to the books.
It looks like Posey may be stuck trying to work for the trio. He made such a move this weekend, he turned pale Patrick Bailey to guardians for a valuable prospect and draft pick. Bailey is the best defensive catcher in the game but his offense has gotten worse and worse this year. His lame bat might have been tolerable if other players were producing but it wasn’t.
That return will not help the club in the near term. Instead, they have to hope that the players like it Jesus Rodríguez again Daniel Susac make enough slots for Bailey, which has little value on defense but hopefully a lot on offense.
If the club can climb back into contention in the coming months, some future-oriented moves will be available this summer. Players who rent like Robbie Ray, Luis Arraez again Tyler Mahle it will be available but without much cost. Mahle has a 5.18 ERA. Ray is playing well but his $25MM salary is huge. Arraez is also having a good season but is making $12MM. A large sale will be difficult. Houser and Bader are both having bad seasons. Long deals will be difficult to deliver.
When Posey first got his current job, he talked about wanting to get the Giants back into the recall business. What was said seemed to be the backbone of the big name players. He then hitched his wagon to Chapman, Adames and Devers. Now that all three horses are stuck in the mud, they may not be able to do more than hope to dig themselves out.
Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images
