This week’s mailbag is in Jordan Walker‘s hot start, the Cubs’ closer Late HortonSeason-ending injuries, the future of the guards, and slow starts for the Tigers and Braves third basemen Austin Riley.
Sam asks:
I know it’s too early to ask this question and I can’t help it. Jordan Walker has a 183 wRC+ and is on pace for 39 HRs that he has 456 ABs (ZIPS AB projections). You’ll be a little cooler—at least. But he says he’s finally arrived (met his potential, or whatever you want to call him) and has settled into being a 130-135 wRC+ hitter and 30-35 HR, how do you think that affects the Cardinals’ short-term and long-term outlook for their rebuild?
Walker, 24 in May, sits at 181 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances after striking out a solo walk in five plate appearances Tuesday at Nationals Park.
I ran up the wRC+ leaderboard last year until April 6, with at least 40 plate appearances. Here’s a list of the top 20, first showing their wRC+ through April 6th and then showing what that player has been up to throughout the season.
- Aaron is the judge – 246/202
- Kyle Tucker – 224/126
- Kristian Campbell – 207/63
- Tyler Soderstrom – 206/119
- Jackson Merrill – 201/108
- Spencer Torkelson – 193/112
- Anthony Volpe – 192/75
- Corbin Carroll – 181/136
- Nolan Arenado – 178/75
- Kyle Schwarber – 178/151
- Lars Nootbaar – 171/90
- Alex Bregman – 166/121
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – 164/129
- Sal Frelick – 162/110
- Heliot Ramos – 159/103
- Brendan Donovan – 157/115
- Jose Altuve – 155/111
- Teoscar Hernandez – 153/97
- Eugenio Suarez – 152/123
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. – 150/124
- Jordan Westburg – 149/110
- Shohei Ohtani – 148/174
- Andres Gimenez – 147/60
- Julio Rodriguez – 144/125
- Nico Hoerner – 138/108
- Jackson Chourio – 136/109
- Seiya Suzuki – 135/121
- Lawrence Butler – 134/93
- Rafael Devers – 134/135
- Brice Turang – 134/123
Walker entered the 2026 season with 1,039 Major League plate appearances and an 89 wRC+. Every player is different, but the best com here might be Torkelson, even though the latter had more experience and success in his career up to that point. But I’d say the range of offseason results for Walker is always very wide: this could be nothing, or a full out. Sorry, the truth is often boring.
I also think it’s worth asking if Walker has hit like this in the Majors before. For that, we use Stathead Span Finder. I’m not a big OPS guy, but that’s probably the best “total offense” stat in this tool. Walker’s OPS is currently 1.014, spanning 11 games and 44 PA. He had a few streaks at least this good, mostly in June and August of his 2023 rookie season:
- 6-6-23 to 6-18-23: Walker hit .395/.477/.789 (1.267 OPS) with 4 HR in 44 PA
- 8-22-23 to 9-5-23: Walker hit .432/.488/.838 (1.326 OPS) on 4 HR in 43 PA
Even in his rough 2025 season, Walker had a 43-PA July run in which he hit .342/.419/.500 (.919 OPS) over 43 PA, though he didn’t have a homer during that streak.
What type of evidence is on the outgoing side of the ledger?
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