The Reds plan to activate it Hunter Greene in their upcoming weekend series against the Orioles, manager Terry Francona told reporters (link posted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). They will come close too Emilio Pagan is back on the 15-day injured list for tomorrow’s game against Milwaukee.
Greene underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow during Spring Training. The Reds have announced that they hope he will return in July. It will be, as he returned at the end of that first timetable.
Cincinnati’s ace took four hits in a minor league assignment, pitching 6 1/3 innings and 82 pitches against Minnesota’s Triple-A team yesterday. Greene did not allow a run while recording a 13:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 1/3 frames in the rehab stint. He averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball in his three Triple-A appearances.
Greene was a first-time All-Star and a top-10 Cy Young voter the past two seasons. He struggled with a right groin injury for a few months last year but bounced back when he was healthy. During 2024-25, he earned a 2.76 earned run average and a 29.2% strikeout rate across 45 starts. He was sixth in run prevention and 10th in strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 200 innings in that stretch.
The Reds initially seemed to be dealing with the absence of their ace, rushing off to one of the hottest starts in MLB. They were 20-11 at the end of April. They’ve been one of the worst teams in the league since then, better than only the Rockies with a 17-33 record since May 1. The start of the game hasn’t been the biggest problem — the bullpen has been the worst in baseball during that time — but they’ve certainly felt the loss of Greene.
Cincinnati starters are 17th in ERA and have the third-highest home run rate in the last two months. Chase Burns it’s been great, emerging as a top-of-the-line complement to Greene’s official rotation. Andrew Abbott again Rhett Lowder they have carried respectable ERAs recently but have struggled to keep the ball in the park. Brady Singer he had a bad first two months. It looks like he’s back on top in June but he had a tough game in Pittsburgh yesterday. Nick Lodolowho missed the first month with a blister, has a 5.05 ERA through 10 starts.
The question is whether Greene’s return comes in time to help salvage the season. Cincinnati lost again tonight and faces an insurmountable 12.5 game deficit in the division. Only five games remain in the Wild Card spot but they need to overcome six teams along the way. Only the Rockies, Mets and Giants have a worse record in the National League.
Francona did not say that the Reds will play with six players. They planned to do that to start the season until Lodolo was injured at the end of Spring Training. That said, they would prefer to give Greene and Burns the ball as often as possible with their playoff hopes fading. They will have an off day next Monday and the All-Star Break after that, so they should give everyone a good rest.
Lowder or Lodolo would appear to be the favorite candidates to be pushed into the bullpen based on recent form. The rotation picture could be adjusted at the trade deadline if the Reds don’t have a good showing in July.
Singer is an upcoming free agent and is very unlikely to receive a qualifying offer. He wouldn’t have much trade value at a $12.75MM salary but he has pitched well enough recently that the Reds could find someone willing to give up a mid-level prospect (like the Cubs did last week to get him. David Peterson). Lodolo will receive at least a small raise from his $4.725MM salary in his final year of arbitration. Given his recent form and blistering history, the Reds could look to move him. It’s unlikely they’ll trade Abbott, and a move involving Greene or Burns would be a real surprise.
Greene is on the 60-day disabled list and will need to be reinstated to the 40-man roster. They already have an opening and will only need to open an active roster spot unless they make a 40-man move. Tony Santillan he will be down for a long time after going through a lot of trouble and will be a 60 day IL candidate if he needs a roster spot.
The Reds will also need to select a pitcher tomorrow to make room for Pagán in the bullpen. Francona has already said that he will be back as he has been out for nearly two months due to a hamstring injury. Pagán had struggled before the injury, giving up 10 runs while making three saves in nine chances over 14 innings. Santillan recorded four saves after Pagán’s injury; no one else has more than one at that time. Pagán’s home run propensity makes him more of a closer than others, but the Reds can feel confident that he will be closer to the strike zone. Not so with MLB’s high-walk-rate bullpen.
