Over the weekend at Kauffman Stadium, the AL MVP race hit the ground running. Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royal Family accepted Jordan Alvarez and the Astros for a three-game series, and two superstars put on a show. Alvarez went 7-for-14 with two home runs, extending his hitting streak to 21 games. Witt had six hits, including a double, to go along with the stolen bases and his regular. Gold Glove defense. What we saw from both of them this weekend was the AL MVP competition in a nutshell. Will Alvarez blow his way to victory, or will Witt sway the voters with his all-around game?
Witt received his first MVP votes in 2023, finishing seventh. He was the runner-up Aaron is the judge in 2024, it received all 30 second-place votes. Last year, he came in fourth. As Witt enjoyed his breakthrough in 2023, only Shohei Ohtani and Judge produced some Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference. By FanGraphs’ version of the metric, it’s just Ohtani.
Alvarez has his history in the shadow of those two big names. He was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2019, two years after Judge’s record-breaking rookie season and one year after Ohtani’s highly anticipated debut. In 2022, he was the third wheel in the MVP conference for Judge and Ohtani. Judge or Ohtani has won the AL MVP every year since 2020, but this season, the door is wide open for a new king to climb to the top of the hill on the Junior Circuit. Ohtani is on his way to his third straight NL MVP, while Judge is on the injured list with stress fractures in his ribs.
As the midway mark of the 2026 campaign approaches, Witt leads the AL in both fWAR and bWAR. His batting line is only 22% better than average, per wRC+, but he leads the majors with 26 stolen bases and a 16 Outs Above Average. I’d call him a “five-tool player,” but that might understate his abilities. In addition to his range, arm, speed, contact skills, and strength, Witt is moving at an above-average clip for the first time in his career. Furthermore, while his wRC+ of 122 ranks just 24th among professional AL hitters, his .386 xwOBA puts him in the top 10. Only a handful of players can touch the ball like Witt, and no other big hitter has anything close to his abilities in the field and on the bases. No player this side of Ohtani can impact games in as many different ways as Bobby Witt Jr.
Alvarez brings all of his value to the plate, but that doesn’t mean he’s a one-dimensional player. Indeed, it’s his rare combination of power, ball skills, and attitude that make him so dangerous. The hulking lefty leads the AL with 24 home runs, 54 RBI, and a .326 batting average, putting him in a position to win his first triple crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. Each of the last four hitters to win a triple-double also took home MVP honors: Cabrera, Carl Yastrzemski (1967), Frank Robinson (1966), and Mickey Mantle (1956).
It’s a task that neither Judge nor Ohtani has pulled off, in part because they both swing and miss less, leading to higher strikeout rates that lower their batting averages. Alvarez swings hard and cuts through cover on the ball better than anyone, but he also makes more contact than Judge or Ohtani. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 17.1% strikeout rate in 2026 are both well above average, which is unusual for a hitter with such bat speed. Add to that the fact that Alvarez hits the ball in the air more often than anyone, and the result is a profile that is truly unique – and truly terrifying to opposing hitters.
With a 193 wRC+, Alvarez has produced nearly twice as much batting average. Ben Rice has the next highest wRC+ at 172. In the last 20 years, only two players have finished a full season with a higher wRC+ than Alvarez currently has: Bryce Harper in 2015 and Judge in 2022, ’24, and ’25. Four of those seasons were MVP campaigns. In addition, Alvarez somehow not working properly his expected statistics. His xwOBA currently stands as the highest in a qualifying season by Statcast. While his hitting streak hasn’t reached the level Judge was at when he won the MVP over Witt in 2024, the baseline data suggests it could get there.
There’s still plenty of time for other names to enter the AL MVP race. Rice once Nick Kurtz they put up annoying numbers that make their eyes pop out, while healthy Mike Trout again Byron Buxton they do exactly what a healthy Trout and Buxton can do. Cy Young’s favorite Cam Schlittler he shouldn’t be ignored, especially if he keeps his ERA under 2.00, and he shouldn’t be a Rookie of the Year favorite Kevin McGonigle. Julio RodrÃguez he’s a dark horse, but at his best, his overall ability may be on par with Witt’s, and historically he’s played much better in the second half.
However, as things stand today, it’s hard to argue that anyone other than Alvarez or Witt is the best. It is difficult to choose who among them. Do you dare to vote?
Who is the frontrunner for AL MVP?
Photos courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Jeffrey Becker, and Raymond Carlin III – Imagn Images.
