This week’s MLB Mailbag will answer several Cardinals questions from readers, in addition to questions about the Pirates’ roster and trade targets, the Mariners’ personnel needs and roster needs, the Mets’ deadline approach, and Dalton Rushingfuture in Los Angeles. (Note that the questions are lightly edited for clarity.)
I’ve rounded up a bunch of Cardinals related questions to get you started this off week. Let’s dive in!
Steve asks:
You can see the Cardinals making an effort to try to sell Dustin May deadline? President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said they will not lose sight of the long-term plan to accumulate prospects and build for the future.
T. Hughes asks:
What would a Jordan Walker extension looks like this? He made more money in the derby than he will ever make in his salary! I guess it depends on whether you believe this year is real.
Sam asks:
What kind of prospect package does it Lars Nootbaar bring it back? A data lover who never broke, but more than a lease. Who would be the same?
We’ve covered Dustin May quite a bit in the mailbag in recent weeks, but it’s easy to see why. The Cardinals are in a strange place – doing better than expected and competing in a season that was meant to be more transformative in nature. They have reached this point with pure health from a striking staff and the emergence of young stars like JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker, but the pitching staff looks weak. Even if they can get back to the playoffs, how far are we waiting for May-Michael McGreevy-Andre Pallante exchange to carry yourself in October?
Bloom has previously said he won’t forget the long-term goal, as has teammate Steve. Buying May feels smart, given that long-term goal and the risks of holding on to him too long. The Cards could make May a worthy offer, but they’ll only get a first-round pick if they both turn down that $23MM QO and sign a free agent deal worth more than $50MM. It should also not be considered a guarantee. May played better than I expected heading into the season. Kudos to Bloom & Co. for getting a good show about him.
However, May has a long history of sports injuries and is showing signs of fatigue. He followed his perfect one-hit shutout for the weak Padres by going 11 1/3 innings over his next four innings. He allowed 13 runs on 17 hits and seven walks in that span.
May is sitting at a 4.55 ERA with an average strikeout rate, good command and a slightly better than average ground ball rate. He’s been plagued by a low strikeout rate (64.7%) and a somewhat difficult average on balls in play (.317) but has also benefited from a minuscule 7.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s just shy of the league average of 12% and his career mark of 13.5%. If you want to say that May is, by far, the most qualified to have an ERA in line with his 3.92 SIERA, I would agree with that. I also have little confidence that he can continue to reach that level going forward.
Last year’s 132 1/3 innings was a career high, and he’s only 39 innings away from that mark right now. It would take a tight, healthy tight end to get a pick after the first round. The odds of May signing for less than $50MM (and thus getting a pick after the balance B competition), accepting that expensive QO, or not holding back enough (health and/or performance wise) to qualify for a QO outweigh the odds of that best case scenario pick after the first round.
If the Cards really want to move the needle, they could trade up in May for the best return in the next two weeks and then retool the rotation by bringing in a veteran starter — either a rental or perhaps a young arm with several seasons of club control left. Adding someone you like Robbie Ray it won’t break bank prudence but could help keep them operating in a post-May trading environment, for example.
Open Subscriber Exclusive Articles Like This One For Front Office Subscription Trade Rumors
- Access weekly subscriber articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join the weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our authors.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
