Let’s try something a little different today. I’ll go with “Buy, Sell, or Hold” for a few guys. It’s based on a kind of independent evaluation of what has happened to their number so far this season and how I feel about that change. In fact, there isn’t much to be done for most players right now, short of trading them. And I wouldn’t be crazy about a trade early in the season, short of addressing an obvious need for the team. So there are many ideas! Fortunately, people trade, and Yahoo follows them, so I’ll refer to Yahoo’s latest trade here. Bottom line, we don’t know if these are guard or salary leagues, so they have little context, so I’ll try to limit you to trades that look like straight-up redraft trades. Anyway…..
Fernando Tatis Jr.
0 Homers. .253
Those 0 homers stick out like a sore thumb. But he looks a lot like he was a few years ago when he hit 25, 21 (in 102 games), and 25 homers. He has 9 barrels in fact, with nary a homer to show for it yet. That just screams mathematical falsity. He has a HardHit% of 67.7%.
But before you say “recession is coming”, there are some not-so-good signs where a full energy recovery is going. He only has 4.8% PulledAir. Yes, that would be a small sampling of the quirk, but those barrels go in the opposite direction so far, and it’s tough to homer that way. Also, his LA is down to 7.0, so it’s hard contact on the ground. That should help Avg. his, and when he looks unlucky as he has a .253 Avg vs. .286 x BA. He steals 6 times, so he’s on his way to 30 if he stays healthy.
Verdict: Buy it
No one is cutting Tatis, obviously, so “Buy” here means I’d jump at any trade discount. His value has obviously gone down, but I also wouldn’t sell at such a loss. Prediction systems are all waiting for the mid-20s at home from here on out, who am I to argue?
The latest Yahoo Trades
Jordan Alvarez
Bryce Harper
Um, I wouldn’t trade him for Alvarez, but part of that is that a healthy Yordan is probably worth more than Tatis anyway. But Harper? I would really like Tatis.
Mike Trout
.234, 7 HR, 22 runs, 18 RBI, 2 steals
As I’m sure you know, Trout had an age series at Yankee Stadium last week, rocking 5 homers in 4 games. He has a 22.5% BB% vs. 18.6% K%, 25.9% Barrel%, and 92.9 EV would tie for second best. And his senior season was a small sample of 2020. We’re talking Mike Trout here with elite plate ability, hitting the ball as hard as ever. I really like this as a fan, and I have him in one of my favorite teams. Unfortunately, my entire team is evil, so it would be wasted on me (I’m sure everyone is worried about that, lol).
So what are we doing here?
Verdict: Hold on
My mind says sell, and my heart says buy, so I’m going to get out and go. After all, the ability to get out of things is what separates us from animals (except weasels), according to Homer Simpson. I think I’ll take the early advantage on Trout if for no other reason than that he’s a serious health risk at age 34 and given his past. But his on-base skills look so impressive (.483 xwOBA), and he clearly has a skill set up there with the top elite, it’s hard to pass up.
The latest Yahoo Trades
Logan Gilbert
Jackson Chourio
Um…this would be hard to say no to, that’s pop at a perceived value. Chourio, of course, hasn’t played yet and is still a few weeks away, but he’s a tier 5 player when he gets on the field. And Gilbert is a top 10 SP even with a slow start.
Brenton Doyle
.217, 1 HR, 5 steals
I really expected a change from Doyle this season. Maybe not up to his .260, 23 HR, 30 Steal level of 2024, but an improvement from his .233 15-18 last year. Also, he’s a good glove in CF, so playing time seemed safe.
So far, there’s not much good in anything but stealing. Part of what made Doyle a Fantasy stud was his improvement in plate skills as his K% dropped from the mid-30s in 2023 to the mid-20s two years ago. But he’s back to 34.8% K%. He doesn’t really do anything well, even on the field.
Verdict: Sell
Maybe I’m bailing here, but I don’t see anything encouraging. Perhaps most importantly, he loses PT as he often sits in the third or fourth game as the Rockies have plenty of outfielders. Jake McCarthy is a worse hitter than Doyle, but has a good glove and can handle the open CF at Coors if Doyle is out.
Recent Transactions
Wilyer Abreu
There are a few others on the list that look like 1-ups of Cody Bellinger and Jesus Luzardo, but I think there’s a keeper factor involved because that wouldn’t make sense.
If Wilyer trades in the redraft. I would much prefer Wilyer. There may be more to that, too, since they weren’t that far apart in the draft season, and Abreu is a rare bright spot in Boston. To me, the key issue here is the reduced playing time, as that is something that never happened to Doyle in Colorado. I have him in my NFBC Auction Championship, and I won’t cut him in such a deep 15 format. But I bench him now sometimes.
