As the Blue Jays continue to trend toward trades, there will be more focus on some of the veteran short-termers — especially recruiting. The right hand Kevin Gausman He stands as one of the most prominent names to be traded if Toronto trades, despite recent issues. Gausman’s five-year, $110MM contract, which expires at the end of the season, allows him to block up to eight clubs. Those teams, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, include the White Sox, Pirates, Brewers, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, A’s and Reds.
Most of the clubs on that list will not be in the market to hire a veteran. The Mets, A’s and Reds are clear sellers. The Mariners rotation is already very deep. The Tigers are in the bubble of buying versus selling, but even if they choose to add, Gausman’s salary would likely be difficult given their tax-expensive status. The Pirates’ rotation has already improved Jared Jones‘come back. A rookie recruit probably isn’t high on his list of things to add right now, and he would be an expensive addition to a low-paying club that has other needs to address.
[Related — Trade Deadline Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays]
The White Sox and Brewers stand out as two notable teams where Gausman could block a deal. Both may have some interest, though his $23MM salary may be a deterrent to interest on the Brewers’ end. As of this writing, Gausman still owes just under $8.04MM. That number will drop to $6.92MM on deadline day. The Jays can always fill that gap by adding cash, but that would mean a steep asking price for Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold’s prospects. They’ll still have to convince Gausman to waive trade protection, of course.
The ChiSox stand out as the most obvious suitor for Gausman on this list, and their payroll is so low right now ($89.4MM as of yesterday, per the new MLBTR salary tracker) that money shouldn’t be a major issue in any acquisition. It’s possible that Gausman just signed the Sox since they weren’t a contending team when he made the call in the offseason and he’s about to accept the opportunity, but that’s speculation. There’s no real way to know what he likes, but he’s expressed mixed feelings about the possibility of a trade.
Mitch Bannon of The Athletic wrote that Gausman was choked before yesterday’s game while talking to reporters about this issue. Gausman said: “I told my wife yesterday, ‘How lucky are we to be here?’ Being in a place long enough to be sad to leave.”
Gausman called signing in Toronto the best decision of his career. He went on to explain that he hopes to show his young daughters around Canada and bring them to Jays games after he retires. At the same time, he also admitted that he would “like to get another chance” to chase the championship. (Readers are encouraged to check out Bannon’s article in its entirety, as it is filled with poignant comments from Gausman that serve as a reminder of the human side of the jobs we cover this time of year.)
In his twelfth start of the season, the 35-year-old Gausman looked well on his way to another season that required at least a handful of Cy Young votes. Gausman has earned Cy Young consideration three times in his career – twice during his tenure with the Jays. He finished third in AL Cy Young voting and will return in 2023. From Opening Day through May 27, Gausman logged a sharp 3.13 ERA with a slightly higher 23.6% strikeout rate and a 4.3% walk rate. He allowed just 0.78 homers in nine frames. That didn’t make him Cy Young’s leading rusher, but he was certainly on the edge.
Instead, the opposite played out. Gausman has mixed in one-run gems in his past nine trips to the mound, but there has been more bad than good. Despite holding the Yankees and Mets to one run over a combined 13 innings in June’s pair, Gausman carries a dismal 6.56 ERA in his past nine trips to the hill. His strikeout rate is in line with previous levels (24.2%), but his walk rate has more than doubled (10.4%) and he has given up a 1.74 homer per nine innings average.
Obviously, Gausman’s command has never been close to normal over the past seven weeks or so. There is no indication that he is dealing with anything physical. His speed hasn’t changed, and the Jays haven’t said anything about a possible injury. Maybe he’s been tipping the scales, battling some adversity or both. Whatever the reason for the slump, he raised his ERA to 4.51. Metrics like SIERA (3.88) and FIP (3.68) paint a pretty good picture, but any team that acquires him will be making a bet on returning the right-hander’s excellent command.
Of course, the Jays have 21 other teams with whom they can freely discuss Gausman. He would have no say in a potential trade to clubs like the Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Rays, Padres and D-backs — all of whom are busy hunting for replacement arms. Gausman won’t dominate the pack of top prospects, given his contract status and recent drop in results, but he has a great track record and has been a playoff-caliber starter for more than a decade now … except for the past few weeks.
The Blue Jays lost again last night, losing 4-2 to the rival Rays. They are at the bottom of the AL East and sit 6.5 games back of the Wild Card spot in an American League playoff chase characterized by mediocrity. The road ahead is not easy. Shane Bieber — another free agent on the way — takes the ball against Tampa Bay in the series finale today. After that, the Jays head to Boston for three games against one of baseball’s hottest teams, followed by three games in DC against one of the league’s incredibly competitive clubs. They will host another unlikely contender, the Cardinals, in three games leading up to the August 3 deadline.
