The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a puzzle that can be difficult to put together.
It is the PGA Tour’s only official team event, featuring 80 teams of two players competing over four rounds at TPC Louisiana. The tournament alternates formats each day with Four-ball (Best Ball) played in Rounds 1 and 3 and Foursomes (Alternate Shot) played in Rounds 2 and 4.
You can look at the two best players in the field and bet accordingly. So do the Fitzpatrick brothers at +1175 and feel good about it, with Matt still fresh off his second win of the season.
TPC Louisiana is a different setup, though. Idle skill sets usually don’t win this format. Two top golfers both with neutral putting games sound great until you watch them grind through four rounds producing a birdie that no one seems to be converting.
The course is forgiving enough off the tee and around the greens that approach play and the par 5 does the heavy lifting. What separates the contestants is having one player who creates looks and another who finishes them.
I’m going with a bright card this week, with one pairing that stands out above the rest.
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A very good bet
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Ryan Gerard and Sudarshan Yellamaraju: Both Top 5 +320 and Win +1750
This duo is built this way. Gerard is 12th in scoring, while Yellamaraju is 15th or better in par 5 scoring, with putts made 10-15 feet (helpful on these big plants). One guy attacks the course, and the other turns around, with no bleeding wounds or anything serious.
These errors sound like an unfair amount. The Fitzpatricks are getting attention because of the name and Matt’s recent form, two wins in the last three starts. Gerard and Yellamaraju get a better number because they are eligible.
How to play: Top 5 is an average game, while winning is worth a splash. This is the only pairing on the board where profile and price both point in the same direction.
Building a profitable betting portfolio week after week is already a challenge. Performing in a PGA event with paired formats, the margin of error becomes even smaller. That’s why I’m taking a risk on one pair.
Having said that, here are some of my thoughts and why I chose to opt out.
Alex Fitzpatrick + Matt Fitzpatrick
Absolute odds:
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Maximum 10 +100
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Maximum 5 +210
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To win +1175
Buying favorites for this format is not attractive. Two elite golfers who both can’t putt is a real problem when the course gives you birdie looks all day and you need someone to actually do it. The Top 10 is a coin flip, and the Top 5 is the only line that gives me pause, but not enough to pull the trigger.
Keith Mitchell + Brandt Snedeker
Absolute odds:
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Top 20 -114
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Maximum 10 +230
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Top 5 +510
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To win +3500
This pair made it to my long list because the +3500 looks as juicy as a textbook matching pair on paper. Mitchell is top 20 off the tee and approach, while Snedeker is elite around the green and putting. Mitchell may bring the team down as he ranks 105th, as Snedeker may be strong in the short game but his recent form has been concerning, with several missed cuts of late. The value of the short game is real, but the ballpark is much lower.
The overall impression is correct: Mitchell’s ball hits, Snedeker putts, but Snedeker can no longer hold on as a putter in the next few rounds of shots. The profiles of these two work in theory, but I worry that the risk of execution is very real.
Max McGreevy + Kevin Roy
Absolute odds:
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Maximum 20 -110
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Maximum 10 +240
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Top 5 +530
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To win +3700
McGreevy is par for the course and +3700 is a good number, making them a balanced duo. McGreevy is in the top 20 in approach and 5-point scoring, which is exactly what this course rewards. Roy is top 35 around the green and putt, which is good as a supporting actor. The problem is that Roy’s path is the 102nd path, which is a real liability for some images. When it’s his turn to hit the irons, the pairing can pay off. It’s an interesting value but they have a clear weakness that could fit in the Top 20, but they may need help to finish Top 10 or better.
Final thoughts
Top 20 (with ties) are available, but I don’t put juice on a tournament where the format changes to a paired event. There are only so many ways to be beaten. If Gerard and Yellamaraju are running, great. If they didn’t, the statistics would never have screamed anything more than a small calculated play, which is how betting should work.
