Royal Birkdale has played host to some of the greatest rivalries in Open Championship history, but who will come out on top on Southport’s famous links in 2026? Nick Bayly previews the final major season, which kicks off on July 16, highlighting the course’s key challenges and exploring the possibilities for the current generation of ‘Champion Golfer of the Year’.
Since 1860, the Open Championship has been played on some of the most popular links courses in the world and has produced some amazing champions. From the Old Course at St Andrews in Scotland to Royal St George’s in deep Kent, golf’s greats create champions whose names will be remembered forever.
This year the tournament returns to Royal Birkdale, with the famous Lancashire links hosting The Open for the tenth time in its storied history. The most recent was in 2017 when Jordan Spieth came out on top following a final round tie with Matt Kuchar. The American joined a famous roll of Champion Golfers at Birkdale, including Peter Thomson, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Ian Baker-Finch, Mark O’Meara and Padraig Harrington.
However, while Birkdale’s iconic Art Deco clubhouse and famous fairways remain classics, the course itself has undergone significant development over the decades to ensure it remains a challenge for the modern golfer and to enhance the spectator experience.
Improvements have been made to a set of holes, including 5, 7, 14, 15 and 18, which have served not only to change the rhythm of the course, but also to introduce several new elements of reward that have been lost over the years due to the continuous extension of modern tour professionals.
THE FIFTH TAKE
The first big change comes on the 5th, a completely new hole – with a new tee, fairway and green layout – that poses a classic risk-reward challenge. Players can now see the green directly from the tee on this 321-yard par-4, a visual change that will tempt big hitters to reach for their driver. However, with high run-offs and a hard bed guarding the putt, missing the green will result in tests up and down. If the wind is against you, many players will hit a long iron for safety before attacking the pin with a wedge, while the tees are forward and there is a favorable wind, some will be tempted to go for glory with the big dog.
Another significant change comes at the par-3 7th, a hole known for its ‘donut bunker’. Although it is still the shortest hole on the card at 151 yards, the margin of error is also now much smaller. The new, raised green is surrounded by some of the deepest bunkers on the course, which puts a lot of emphasis on accurate distance control.
An amazing shot awaits at the new par-3 15th. The narrow entrance to the green on this 241-yard hole will make the putt look very small from the tee, especially with a long iron or hybrid in hand. The hole, located on the old 14th, often plays into the wind downwind, and with the green going from front to back that’s a lot to consider when hitting approach shots.
Last, but not least, the 18th has also been changed with a new tee area that changes the layout of this 508 yard, par-4 to be a more direct challenge off the tee.
“There’s more going wrong on 18 than ever before,” said Royal Birkdale Head Professional Gregg Pettersen, speaking to TheOpen.com. “The old 18th tee was on the right, so the hole played more like a dogleg from left to right. We moved the tee farther to the left, so it’s a more straight hole up the clubhouse. Now it’s just lined with bunkers all around.
“For anyone who takes a driver, it’s easy to fall into one of those traps. I would expect a lot of players to be short at the end of the game and leave themselves long enough to reach the green to eliminate the risk of going into fairway bunkers. It looks like a much smaller, more intimidating shot now at all the fairways.”
CLARET JUG ASSISTANT
With the course changing so much in favor of precision bowlers and tactical thinkers over ‘bomb ‘n’ gouge’ forces, the landscape in terms of potential winners sounds incredibly interesting, although it will come as no surprise that the usual favorites top the betting charts, as the best conditions for the world’s top players are very different from the world’s top players. golf season than ever before.
Scottie Schefflerthe bookies’ favorite in almost every major since going on a tear in 2022, he arrives on Flyde shores as the defending champion following his win at Portrush last year. The World no.1 has suffered from seconditis this year, having finished second no fewer than four times this season, and only ‘W’ has entered American Express since January.
While his consistency is impressive – he hasn’t finished 25th in any event since August 2024 – his ability to find a single best player will match the 22-time world number one winner as of December 2023. Blessed with fairway-finding shots, laser-like iron play, and his low percentage to score the best, Scott at Birkdale, although his lack of course experience should down in the negative column.
Trailing behind Scheffler in ranking points, but charting at no.2 in the world, Rory McIlroy (7-1) appears to be targeting the majors at this point in his career, and the 37-year-old from Hollywood was seen dialing in his Birkdale grounds shortly after his disappointment at last month’s US Open.
He also traveled to St Enodoc in Cornwall last week with Shane Lowry to help hone his links game, and you can expect the reigning Masters champion to be leaving no stone unturned in his quest to back up his one and only Open win since 2014 at nearby Hoylake.
Rory’s light playing schedule fits his busy lifestyle these days, but it also may not be helping him keep as fit as he’d like, so it’s hard to know if the training/competition balance is paying off the way he’d hoped.
HAS TOMMY’S TIME COME?
While Rory will not be short of support in his quest for a sixth major title, one player who will step up to the plate at Royal Birkdale Tommy Fleetwood. Born in Southport, and with the town now sporting a 40-foot mural of his face on the wall of the local sports club, Fleetwood knows Birkdale like the back of his hand, having entered the course for his childhood illicit rounds. He knows the prevailing winds and subtle nuances of the world better than anyone else in the field, except perhaps local boy Matthew Baldwin.
With an impressive pedigree and exceptional footballing ability, Fleetwood has long since passed the big competition to match his many other career achievements, and after finishing second behind Brian Harman at Royal Liverpool in 2023, the home boy will make him the most popular choice to lift the Claret Jug this time around. For that to happen, he will have to fire the striker, a club that has a habit of letting him down when under pressure, and not be distracted by the club’s galleries, most of whom will flock to Birkdale full of football crowds.
After lifting the Claret Jug at Royal Troon in 2024, Xander Schauffele he has proven that he has the temperament and game necessary to become a master of links golf. He doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses and his ability to grind out pars when the weather goes south makes him a tough guy to handle the tough conditions he’s likely to face on the Southport coast. He also impressed at the US Open at Shinnecock Hills, with back-to-back top-15 finishes, but with the playable conditions expected at Birkdale it’s hard to rule out the soft-spoken American.
If you want the latest form of the Open Championship, then Collin Morikawagraduate of Royal St George’s in 2021, must also enter mathematics. Now ranked sixth in the world after a top-10 finish this season and a win at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, this versatile iron player should be a solid one-way investment if the wind stays manageable and the tournament reaches the second stage.
The same can be said for the US PGA Championship reign Aaron Raiwho, as a past winner of the Scottish Open, has shown he has a knack for links golf and is a solid iron player who rarely misses the fairway.
Other long-term problem options to consider Brian Harmanhis direct driving and unerring accuracy with his broomstick putter make him a force to be reckoned with on the links courses, while Viktor HovlandNorway’s second-leading scorer behind goalscorer Erling Haaland, fresh off a win at the John Deere Classic, where he shared the lead with Scottie Scheffler, could also be considered now that he appears to be emerging from a dip in form following his swing changes in 2024.
ENTRY FINAL
With tickets already being snapped up for all four days of the tournament, it promises to be a new record crowd set for the Open at Birkdale this year. So, whether you’re one of those lucky enough to have a side seat, or you’ll be watching on the small screen at home, everyone will be hoping that the 154th Open Championship will produce a fittingly memorable end to the year’s Greatest season.
LATEST ODDS OPEN BEFORE THE MATCH – THROUGH BETWAY
Scottie Scheffler 5/1
Rory McIlroy 7/1
Tommy Fleetwood 14/1
Jon Rahm 16/1
Xander Schauffele 18/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 20/1
Cameron Young 22/1
Ludvig Aberg 22/1
Brooks Koepka 25/1
Justin Rose 25/1
Tyrrell Hatton 28/1
B DeChambeau 28/1
Collin Morikawa 28/1
Robert MacIntyre 33/1
Shane Lowry 33/1
Wyndham Clark 33/1
Viktor Hovland 33/1
Joaquin Niemann 40/1
Justin Thomas 40/1
Chris Gotterup 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Sam Burns 40/1
Jordan Speith 50/1
Others 50/1 or more (1/4 maximum odds in 5 places)
In all the latest Open championship betting unusual, visit Betway.
The Open Championship will be played on Sky Sports Golf from July 16-19. For a full schedule of live coverage, visit www.skysports.com
