FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: May 2, 2026

I don’t really care about standing in April. I look at myself, but that is more of a general issue than a desire to learn something important. It’s hard for teams to get ahead of the pack early in the season, and I’d rather not read too much into the fact that, say, the Blue Jays are a few games under .500, or that none of the five teams in the NL Central have a losing record. It takes time for these things to fix themselves.

However, when I looked at the standings on Friday morning, I found myself pondering the significance of what I saw: specifically, that only three teams in the American League had a winning record. After 20 confusing minutes of digging, I looked up from my laptop in amazement, wondering how I ended up staring at Baseball Reference’s odds on the 14-18 White Sox. I think seeing the 16.1% number is what got me out of my addiction. (Actually, our Playoff Odds gave the South Siders a 2.2% chance of making the postseason, double their chances on Opening Day.) Still, with those three AL clubs over .500, the Yankees (20-11) were expected to be one of the best teams in baseball, so their spot at the top of the standings wasn’t a solid start, the Ray 12s weren’t. and Athletics (17-14) caught me off guard. I thought Tampa Bay was slated for last place when the season started, and our Playoff Odds agreed, showing the team to finish with 79.7 wins and giving them a 28.9% shot to make the postseason. Entering May, the Rays have only added about two wins to their average projection (81.9), but now have a 45.6% chance of making the playoffs. At the time, I believed the A’s would be better this year, but better meant maybe a third-place finish in the AL West and an outside shot for the final AL Wild Card spot. Still, I thought they might be a year or two away from true contention. Our preseason Playoff Odds have them at 78 wins and a 21.4% shot at the playoffs. Now, they’re up to 81.3 wins and a 43.1% shutout. I don’t think either team will play postseason baseball this year; In terms of both their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records, the Rays have played more like a .500 team than a one-run team to win 97 games, while the A’s don’t have enough depth. Remember, it’s only early May. There is still a lot of baseball left to be played.

OK, enough about the Rays and A’s in this week’s mailbag. Today, we’ll be answering your questions about how good Shohei Ohtani can be in basketball, whether James Wood is one of the best lefties to ever hit the ball, which hitter has the most hits against a pitcher without recording a strikeout, and what will happen if ZiPS is forgotten in 2020. But before we get to all that, I would like to remind you of this Fakah Members. If you are not yet a Member and would like to continue learning, you can sign up for Membership here. It’s the best way to experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with tons of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question about a future mailbag, email me at mailbag@fangraphs.com.