It’s only April 22, but it’s April 22, you know? We have a decent amount of data here.
Sometimes a theme just pops into my head, and sometimes I just look at the Player Rater and see what stands out. This is one of those articles, hopefully you find it interesting too.
Rafael Devers
There’s a lot not to like here. He hit .236 with an .807 OPS after being traded to San Francisco last season, making his current .225 mark a trend, not an aberration. Factor in a bad hitting situation in a home park, and power should be a concern (although it should be, both home games this year were at home.) The trade from Boston to Oracle Park has been detrimental to him.
His story is a lack of hard communication. Devers has always been a solid bet for an exit velocity, and this year he’s off to a rough start in that department. He’s not unlucky, he’s just talking badly. The hit rate has improved, but you may be trying to connect with more people at the expense of power numbers. Time will tell if he can get out of it.
Of course, Devers got off to a rough start last season and rebounded. This sounds different, though. He has been worried about his body condition for a long time and is now about 30 years old. The contact quality is also very poor, and the plate technique was not his calling card. I would look at the Devers trade and try to get some value back from the rebound buyer.
Ryan O’Hearn
No, this will not be all problems. O’Hearn has long been a solid bat in the strong side of platoons. Last year, however, he held his own against LHP, actually having a higher OPS against them than righties. So far, he’s thoroughly enjoying his new digs in Pittsburgh. Although he hasn’t struggled against lefties, he has been productive in a small sample size (.286 in 21 AB) against them. Overall, he’s hitting .329 with four home runs, so you’d think the stats against righties are pretty solid. And here it is! .347/.450/.592 for a 1.042 OPS.
There is nothing under the hood to worry about. His BABIP is high, .358, but even if that drops a bit, the batting average is still in play. The walk and strikeout rates are both in the top quarter of the league, and the quality of contact is in the 65th percentile. Not elite, there, but it will work. O’Hearn was a target in the last round, and he has turned into a good asset. I’m a few weeks away from the new standards, and right now, O’Hearn is moving Devers forward.
Vinnie Pasquantino
After they struggled. Nothing to cheer about Vinnie P this season. But last year, he hit .177/.242/.327 in the first month, then got burned out by the weather. April showers gave birth to May flowers as he slashed .330/.375/.464 that month. So look no further than StatCast for inspiration. It’s not a good idea. If you’re looking for hope, and you should because he’s a great player, look at last season’s breakdown. Need more? Yes? However, in his rookie year in April, he again slashed .208/.311/.386 and got hot. Ladies and germs, we’re off to a slow start. You will be fine.
Max Muncy
Ever since Muncy debuted in 2015, that old Beastie Boys song keeps popping into my head. See if you can name it: “Max Muncy. That funky Muncy!” Well, Funky Muncy is still going strong 35 years later. By solid, I mean some power and a good OBP. But I will recommend selling here. Muncy has been known for years for going strong. However, this year, it dropped to 10%, 56th percentile, from 16th, which was tops in the league. Muncy also has a ten percent spike in strikeouts. With growth, players sometimes go to the areas of guessing more than reacting, which leads to more turns. He’s no longer a safe bet for season production, and don’t forget the extensive injury history.
Josh Jung
Jung comes in as the 20th rated midfielder on Rater, mostly on the shoulders of this hot play:
20-for-59, 9 extra base hits, .385/.441/.635, 203 WRC+, only 12% average K. He made some meaningful changes in the second half and it seems like they’ve clicked for now. You have to ride this one to see if it’s true. Whenever a guy comes out like this, you have to buy the hope he gives in such a weak situation.
Here are a few more fun bonus pieces. The first is the guys I don’t stress about. The second time the boys cut off the relationship. Okay, I hereby give you online permission to do it. I can go into detail in the comments if you like why, but I’m almost 900 words old already!
Be Patient With:
Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Alec Burleson, Tyler Soderstrom
Continue From:
Royce Lewis, Nolan Arenado, Kazuma Okamoto, Nolan Schanuel
Detergent:
They can’t cut it, but there is a special place for dream managers who suffer because of their bad work for these guys. God bless you all for putting up with their antics. I have no advice except to hold on tight and be patient. It’s harder for them than it is for you.
Josh Naylor, Michael Busch
