So what if you took a bunch of us “experts” and gave us $260 to bid and fill out a dream team? How accurately can we value these guys? Well, it’s still early, but it’s not long to see that like every other year, we missed a lot. Here are the top 10 players by average auction values (AAV) of all NFBC auctions, compared to their average auction values (EAV) here at Razzball
Aaron Judge $48 vs. $31
Ronald Acuna Jr. $43 vs. $12
Juan Soto $42 vs. $21
Julio Rodriguez $38 vs. $19
Kyle Tucker $35 vs. $8
Corbin Carroll $35 vs. $19
Fernando Tatis Jr. $34 vs. $5
Jackson Chourio $31 vs. $10
Brent Rooker $26 vs. $2.6
Pete Crow-Armstrong $25 vs. $15.1
The numbers are not apples to oranges comparisons…to make one clear point, no one has a negative AAV. But it’s close enough, and it’s kind of striking that no one is even close to their AAV. I’d argue that if you’ve created a Judge for the auction or written to him in his destination (usually the latter), you should be very happy with what you’ve gotten so far. His .248 average is easy as his K% has risen to 27.6%, his highest since 2020. But he played every day and hit 17 homers with 43 runs, 38 RBI, and 5 steals. He is ranked 5th in player ratings.
Of the others, the following three are hot right now and could still earn their draft costs. Acuna got off to a slow start and missed 2.5 weeks in May. But in his last four games he hit 5 homers and was robbed again. Soto also missed a few weeks. In 15 games dating back to May 14 he is hitting .382 with 9 homers, 16 runs, 18 RBIs and 4 steals. Then there’s JRod who has always been healthy but lazy out of the gate every year. He only had 2 homers at the end of April, but then hit 10 in May.
For some, well, Carroll is the only one you probably don’t quite grit your teeth about. It’s not spectacular, but he has 7 homers and 7 steals each, and is hitting .287 with 37 runs and 28 RBIs. He went 32-31 last year, and is off that pace. PCA isn’t a disaster either, as he has 12 steals and 7 homers, but he’s hitting .237 and has always been a big threat as he fell sharply in the 2nd half of 2025.
And then there are the absolute season spoilers. Tucker was my most expensive purchase on my most expensive team (NFBC NJ Auction Championship). He hasn’t destroyed my team, luckily, as I have James Wood, but ugh. He has been healthy all year and has only 4 homers, 4 steals, and a .242 average. His only statistics is that he has scored 37 runs. I was hoping he would change this the last time I talked about him. I’m not sure now, it doesn’t happen. He’s never been a fast guy, but he’s down to a low 71.5 (41st percentile). His EV dropped to 89.1, his lowest ever, while he made slow contact, at 78.8% his worst since 2020. Not good, Bob.
Tatis’ quest for a homer got a lot of attention, I won’t bore you with that here. Chourio’s issues are largely due to him missing the first month and a half of the season, but he also hasn’t been as good in his return, as his K% has risen to 28.7% with just 2 homers in 22 games. Rooker also missed a few weeks, but is hitting just .194 with 8 homers in 41 games with a 77 wRC+. Wow.
So what about the flip side? Here are the top 10 in EAV versus their AAV
James Wood $41 vs. $23
Oneil Cruz $39 vs. $15
Andy Pages $36 vs. $10
Jordan Walker $35 vs. $2
Aaron is the judge
Randy Arozerena $26 vs. $17
Byron Buxton $25 vs. $19
Mike Trout $25 vs $8
Michael Harris II $24 vs. $16
Cody Bellinger $21 vs. $17
Walker is the biggest “surprise” yet, and he continues to add to it. Pages, when we last saw him in 2025, was on the Dodgers bench after a big game collapse. I’m really FOMO on this one, I’ve never had stocks that hurt me, as his metrics have reached his productivity. By that I mean his 27 homer, 14 steal season was a little more than skating last year, but he has reduced his K’s and increased his EV, and is on an even higher pace now with 13 homers and 7 steals. He is the mainstay in the Dodger’s lineup in Tucker’s place, as he has a league-high 50 RBI.
The top two guys, Wood and Cruz, are two big guys with a lot of speed whose concerns have lowered their value. Well, so far so good, though I’d suggest that concern remains, especially for Cruz. The Pirate has a 34.9% K% in 25 games since May 5. But he’s still paying the Fantasy bills with 4 homers and 8 steals in that span. His .242 average isn’t great, but he’ll be fine with that if he goes 30-50 this year for sure.
Wood has gone 16-10 with a league-high 53 runs scored in a surprisingly strong Nats lineup. He is hitting an amazing .272 /.411/.548, and his 28.7% K% is easily manageable while doing so. Now he’s on fire in 2025 before the 2nd major collapses, so he’ll still have to prove he can keep this up for the rest of the season.
As for the others, I’m not sure there are any big surprises. Trout and Buxton have always had concerns about playing time, but so far, so good. MHII and Bellinger remain strong tier 5 assets. Arozerena is a 20-20 machine, and at 6-15 so far, there’s a good chance he’ll get there again.
