Calgary Flames’ Lottery Draft Scenarios & Prospects To Target – Hockey Writers – Calgary Flames

The NHL draft lottery is fast approaching.

Scheduled to take place on May 5, the NHL ping-pong lottery could have a big impact on the Calgary Flames, who are currently selected to take the fourth spot in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft.

There are 16 teams with a chance to win two lottery spots, allowing the organization to move up 10 spots in the draft. This means the Flames could get the first or second pick in the lottery. Fourth, if both winners are the top two teams. Then the fifth or sixth if one or two teams with lower lottery odds than them win.

In preparation for all of these scenarios, let’s take a look at some draft options the Flames should target, depending on where they end up in the order and how these players fit into the Flames’ future plans.

I will be listing the names of the prospects briefly throughout. If you want to learn more about each story, check out our profiles of expectations for each player linked!

1st & 2nd Overall: Gavin McKenna & Ivar Stenberg Sweepstakes

Winning the lottery and moving to one of the top two spots is clearly an ideal situation and makes for an easy decision early in the draft, and allows the Flames to focus their energy on the few other options they have to make.

Here at Hockey Writersprospect writer Andrew Forbes has Gavin McKenna leading his board, followed by Ivar Stenberg, while Jordan Orth lists Stenberg ahead of McKenna in his April ratings THW. Outside of our publication, the consensus remains the same: Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino, Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis, and NHL Central Scouting all have both players at the top of their lists.

Sitting with the fourth odds, the Flames have a 9.5% chance of getting the top pick, while the 32nd-ranked Vancouver Canucks have a 25.5% chance of getting the top pick.

After the first lottery winner is selected, things get complicated, at least if you’re as unmathematical as I am. The most basic level, as it is the only one I can understand, is that if the Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks or New York Rangers, the three teams with better chances than the Flames, win the first pick, that will greatly improve the chances of winning the second pick, and if the team behind them wins the first lottery, it will slightly increase their chances for the second.

The tricky part is that these numbers change based on the percentage of the first win. After the lottery winner is determined, they are removed from the pool, and their chances are redistributed among the 15 other teams that will participate in the second round.

Still, if the Flames come out victorious on Tuesday, they’ll only be thinking about two guys if they pick first or second overall.

Ivar Stenberg – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile | Gavin McKenna – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Fourth Overall: Caleb Malhotra

This is where the conversation gets interesting. In this area, there are plenty of defensemen the Flames could target, especially Keaton Verhoeff, whose stock has dipped all season after being in the first round conversation with McKenna back in the fall, or Chase Reid, who has been shooting up draft boards all season after an impressive season with Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.

Both are very talented right-handed defensemen, but with the Flames already having Zayne Parekh on their books, do they want one of those? Maybe not, but it would be hard to argue with being able to play two out of three for 45-50 minutes each night if it turns out to be what the analysts project.

There are also Carson Cares and Latvian Olympian Alberts Smits, who are also expected to go somewhere in the top 10. The difference is that they are left-handed but they work in the same way as Verhoeff and Reid in terms of their roof. Could one of these be Parekh’s green line partner for tomorrow?

The Flames keeping this fourth pick is expected to mean the odds will be in favor of the favorites. Which means two of the top three teams win both groups. It’s not the worst thing to happen from a Calgary perspective, but it will ensure a night against the weather.

Since the NHL instituted a rule that no team can move up more than 10 spots in 2021, the team with the best fourth-round pick has kept its pick in three of the five lottery picks since then and has not lost the lottery so far under the new rules. The last time a team entered the lottery with a fourth chance to move up was in 2020, when the Los Angeles Kings moved from fourth to second.

While there are some excellent defensemen on the board, the Flames’ priority should be to add offense, as they have been the lowest scoring team in the NHL for the past two seasons. There are a few solid options besides the top two; who I see as a better fit is Caleb Malhotra, son of former NHL’er Manny Malhotra.

Malhotra leads the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) playoffs with 13 goals and 25 points in 13 games. His Brantford Bulldogs took a 3-2 lead over the Barrie Colts in the Eastern Conference finals. He may not be in the same conversation as McKenna and Stenberg. However, he plays a perfect game of 200 meters; he has all the offensive tools to be a dual threat, playmaking and scoring. He will be a great fit in Calgary and will fill a huge need.

Caleb Malhotra – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Fifth & Sixth Overall: Lots of Options

Now it’s time to be a part of the conversation all Flames fans will be dreading. Especially after last year, when places 10 and 14 came out as lottery winners. If one team behind the Flames sign is one ball down, the Flames will drop to fifth; if both are behind fourth place, the Flames will record sixth place.

The only exemption from this is St. Louis Blues, holding what would have been the 15th pick for the Detroit Red Wings, and the Washington Capitals, sitting at 16th. They can go fifth and sixth at the top.

Three to 10 will be difficult to predict; there is a lot of top talent in this draft. So, I have to say, if one of the top three mentioned earlier is still available in this area, take him. No questions asked.

Most likely, in the fifth or sixth, the Flames will be deciding between the group of Verhoeff, Reid, Carels and Smits mentioned earlier. There’s also a world where I can see the Flames being so desperate for an offensive explosive up front that it takes a while to get on the board for someone like Viggo Bjork, who has been flying up the boards.

I expect the Flames to fall in the order, but at least the results of the fall are nowhere near that of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who sit one spot behind the top five protected picks that lose if one team passes them.

Amid all these hopes, we are splitting hairs. If you’re the Flames, picking four, five or six doesn’t change much.

Chase Reid – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile | Keaton Verhoeff – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
Carson Cares – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile | Albert Smits – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
Viggo Bjork – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Big Picture Outlook

Whether it’s the first, second, fourth, fifth or sixth pick, the Flames will be getting a player who projects to have a big impact at the NHL level with their first pick in the 2026 Draft. Outside of McKenna and Stenberg, the impact may not be immediately apparent.

However, even without winning the lottery and neither of these two prized prospects, the top end of this draft is very talented. The Flames will be getting a player to potentially challenge for a roster spot in 2027-28, when their new stadium, Scotia Place, opens.

Obviously, everyone is hoping to win the lottery, which would put them in the best position to speed up this rebuild and get back into playoff contention quickly. But it doesn’t have to be the expected or be-all end-all.

The Flames are sitting pretty regardless of how the results go in the lottery on May 5.