The Braves are among several clubs that have reached out to the Red Sox about a possible acquisition of the right-hander. Sonny Grayby Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic. Nothing is close to coming together at this point, and it’s not entirely clear whether Boston will end up trading before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. The Sox have won five straight and 10 of the last 12, moving them within three games of the full American League Wild Card hunt.
Still, given where the Sox have spent a lot of time (stopping-wise) and the fact that Gray is an upcoming free agent, it’s natural for teams in need to check. As noted in a recent piece of the mailbag here on MLBTR, the Braves will likely be the team most linked to Gray. The 36-year-old righty, who has a full no-trade clause, is a resident of Nashville and has prioritized staying close to home in previous decisions of this nature. Atlanta is a four and a half hour drive from Nashville, making it one of the closest drives for any of the Gray family members.
The Braves have endured several key injuries and seen several shortstops begin to falter. Bryce Elder entered today’s game with an 8.70 ERA in his past six starts. Martín Pérez he just fell on the injured list. Reynaldo López it simply points back after cooling in the barn. Hurston Waldrepwho recently returned from a sprained elbow, gave up 10 runs in his first 10 2/3 innings. Spencer Schwellenbach he has yet to come back this year after having surgery to remove loose ligaments from his elbow during spring training. Spencer Strider he’s been out for about a month with elbow inflammation and will miss at least another month, as he’s on the 60-day IL.
It was inevitable that Atlanta would at least go in with Boston on Gray. Beyond all the points made here, Braves president of baseball Alex Anthopoulos often prefers short-term commitments to veteran players. Almost all of the long-term deals Atlanta has made during his tenure have been extensions for players in their mid-20s.
Gray is in the final season of a three-year, $75MM deal he signed with the Cardinals. He restructured the deal slightly after approving the trade from St. Louis to Boston in the winter. Gray is making $31MM this season, but the Cards paid $20MM of that amount as part of the trade that sent him to Boston. That leaves the Sox on the hook for $11MM in salary and a $10MM buyout at the same option that neither side will pick up. (More than a decade has passed since both sides were elected.) That would be about $3.31MM of that $11MM in salary still to be paid, plus that $10MM purchase option.
That makes Gray an expensive hire, but he justifies that price tag with his performance so far. Gray pitched 89 2/3 innings with 16 starts (5 2/3 innings per outing, on average). The former All-Star recorded a 2.61 ERA with a solid 22.8% strikeout rate, a solid 6.4% walk rate and a 47.6% ground ball rate that stands as his highest mark since 2020.
Atlanta currently has a cap hit of just over $259MM. Their luxury tax number sits around $252MM, putting them well over the $244MM threshold but nowhere near the second tier penalty (which would kick in at $264MM). It brings Gray into close fold Chris Sale will strengthen the rotation by combining two of the most successful pitchers of the current generation. Sale and Gray will be sure-fire playoff starters, allowing for life.
It bears repeating, however, that Atlanta is one of many teams that have asked. Many who hope to unlock a large budget have a need for rotation — e.g. Cubs, Blue Jays, Phillies, Padres, Rangers — they’ve probably got the Red Sox’ temperature on whether or not Gray will be moved. The Sox themselves are probably playing this decision lightly, hoping their recent flurry can get them into the buyer’s mind more than the seller’s thought we expected them to have through much of the first half of the season.
If the Sox end up trading, there’s little incentive to hang on to Gray. The cooperation option will not be downloaded. He is a potential candidate for a qualifying offer because he received a QO from the Twins in free agency after the 2023 season. Boston and Gray’s options are to trade him for some future value or sit out the season in hopes of making the playoffs. They are in the bubble for such a decision right now, but the next two to three weeks should provide some much-needed clarity.
