The 2025 defending AL Champions, off to a 10-15 start, are shaking up their bullpen. After three blown saves and a first yank against the Angels on April 21st, the Blue Jays (as covered by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) announced it. Jeff Hoffman comes out close while the group switches to the close committee method. Rights Louis Varland, Tyler Rogersagain Braydon Fisher it should be in the game to save chances. However, Matheson points out that Varland’s firefighting role in the bullpen may prevent him from hitting the ninth spot in some games.
Perhaps a surprising development given his early season performance: an unimpressive 7.59 ERA in 10 2/3 innings is hard to pull off in high-average relief, even with a small sample size. His 6 walks, 2 HBPs, and wild pitch underscore his challenge of commanding the zone and blocking runners. However, Hoffman’s stuff is always messy. His strike rate of 41.2% is at the highest level. Due to the nature of small sample sizes, pitchers’ performance can fluctuate wildly, and ERA models like xFIP (1.68) and SIERA (1.93) both assume he was a straight slugger. Unfortunately, Hoffman’s results have been lacking.
Hoffman had a great run with the Phillies between 2023-2024. Among professional pitchers at the time, his 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings was sixth best in the league. This performance was no surprise: his 26.0 K-BB% (meaning high strikeouts and slow walks) and 2.65 SIERA were the fourth and third best marks during that span, respectively. Impressed by the latter’s performance, the Blue Jays offered Hoffman a three-year, $33M contract through the 2024-2025 season.
His year 2025 was less successful. Hoffman coughed up the most homers he’s ever allowed while pitching exclusively in the bullpen. His postseason run looked like he was returning to form, and it was good overall, but Hoffman’s Fall Classic run will probably be the most memorable (in)famous collegiate game ever given. Miguel Rojas 1 in the ninth in Game Seven.
The Blue Jays have some great options to finish games while their classic efforts to get you in the middle of nowhere. Varland has been excellent thus far, increasing his strikeout rate in 2026 to nearly 50 percent of his career percentage. He rarely walks batters and has not had a ball go out of the yard this season. He looks like last year’s version turned 11, and should be the first in the save line (if there is one). Varland, in a small sample, went 1 in 3 on save chances.
Submariner righty Roger should also be in the mix. While his strikeout numbers are pedestrian, he has good command of the zone (4.5 BB% rate) and is a groundball specialist with a career rate of 57.1 GB%. Rogers has had mixed success in the closer role so far, going 19-of-42 in opportunities. Fisher is less heralded but still very effective and could move up the bullpen pecking order, although he has less experience in high-level situations than Varland and Rogers.
