If you weren’t used to it Cam Schlittler before this season, I’m sure you are now. The 25-year-old has an AL-leading 1.35 ERA over nine starts. The Yankees are 7-2 in his absence, and opposing hitters are hitting .176 against the righty and his devastating three-fastball mix. With Tarik Skubal on the shelf, Schlittler emerged as the first forerunner to start the AL All-Stars this summer in Philadelphia. Some would tell you he’s a Cy Young favorite, too. But Schlittler isn’t the only reason the Yankees’ starting staff exceeded expectations in 2026.
Is Warren27 next month, he has a 3.42 ERA through nine starts. With 59 strikeouts, he is tied with Schlittler for fourth-most in the American League. His 5-1 record matches Schlittler’s, as does New York’s 7-2 record in his debut. Under the hood, the numbers are equally impressive. Warren ranks among the top 10 qualified AL arms in xERA and FIP, and his xFIP and SIERA put him in the league’s top five. The only AL pitchers ahead of him in all four metrics are Schlittler, Dylan Ceaseagain Jacob deGrom.
One thing all those “ERA raters” appreciate is the importance of strikeouts, walks, and their relationship to each other. Warren’s strikeout rate increased from 24.1% in 2025, his first full season, to 29.8% in 2026. His walk rate dropped by nearly a third, from 9.1% to 6.1%. Accordingly, his 23.7% K-BB% (hitting rate minus walk rate) is more than 10 percentage points above the league average for a starting pitcher. BB% is a figure that stabilizes quickly. It is also one of the strongest predictors of future stroke prevention. Warren still needs to prove he can pitch well this season, but his vastly improved K-BB% is a strong indicator that his early success is more than smoke and mirrors. Schlittler is turning heads with a 24.8% K-BB% after facing 202 batters. In terms of strikeouts and walks, Warren is about equally good in a sample of the same size.
It’s not hard to see that Warren has been playing better than last year. It’s a little hard to understand how and why. His strikeouts are high and his walks are low, but he doesn’t throw many pitches in the strike zone or generate any more swings. His swing-and-miss rate is in the middle of the pack, while his rushing rate is below league average. Even more surprising, the rate of his hits and misses is low for his channel, which was widely considered his bread and butter in his thinking days. When Warren posted a 4.44 ERA in 33 starts last season, many were quick to note that he did so despite his opponents hitting .336 with a .569 slugging percentage against his “best pitching.” Instead of being a weapon, it was the slowest channel in the game, with a -10 run rate, per Baseball Savant. Therefore, it would be logical to conclude that Warren needs to strap on his broom if he is going to take the next step.
It would be he made perfect sense, however… the explanation for his success is not so simple. Warren throws his four-seam fastball, sinker, and sweeper each about one-third of the time against right-handed hitters. When he doesn’t have a platoon, he also mixes in a changeup and curveball to keep left-handed hitters on their toes. All five of those offerings have above-average (or better) raw stuff this year, according to models like Stuff+ and PitchingBot at FanGraphs.
However, most of his performances last year were good. What Warren has really improved in 2026, according to those models, is his command, especially in the four-seam, the sweeper, and the changeup. Indeed, looking at his heat maps will confirm that he has been hitting his spots with those songs over and over again. He doesn’t let his four-seam fastball go to the sides, wastes a few sweepers, and punishes hitters with his changeup low and away. A righty may not throw a lot of pitches in the zone, but he throws pitches where he needs to in order to get more strikes.
Just as important as where Warren throws his pitches is when and where he throws them in relation to each other. In other words, all five of his fields work in tandem. His change works because it plays his role. His sink works because he joins it with four stitches. They all work because his broom gives him a different look. His arsenal is more than the sum of its parts.
Until then, Stuff+ and PitchingBot give Warren solid scores for each of his pitches and pitches, but his overall score — a score that takes into account physical pitch characteristics, pitch locations, and situational use across the arsenal — is nothing short of elite. His 118 Pitching+ (sister metric to Stuff+) ranks third among qualified arms in all of MLB, trailing only deGrom’s god stuff and crazy stuff. Jacob Misiorowski. Warren’s PitchingBot score is the best, leading all 79 professional pitchers in the major leagues. It may be just one metric, but it’s a metric that puts him ahead of names like deGrom, Skubal, Skenes… and Schlittler. Pitching+ and PitchingBot aren’t stats you hear about every day, but they are powerful tools for predicting offseason runs allowed in small samples. When all is said and done, what matters is preventing the run and winning football games. Pitch models tell us Warren has the skills to do just that.
Gerrit Cole it’s been out all season. Carlos Rodón only recently returned. If Clark Schmidt vacancies this year, will not be until the last part of the schedule. Luis Gil hurt again, and before he landed on the Triple-A injured listhe was crying as if something was wrong. Those four pitchers have made the Yankees’ rotation as recently as the 2024 World Series. However, even without meaningful contributions from either of them, New York’s starters lead the Junior Circuit in wins, xERA, and FanGraphs WAR. Their 3.14 ERA ranks second, and their 16.5% K-BB% ranks third. That’s not all Warren did – he got a lot of help from Schlittler, Fried Maxagain Ryan Weathers – but it would be difficult to emphasize how much he has spoken to his team so far in 2026. Cole, Fried, Rodón, and now Schlittler are the biggest names, but Warren looks like another future ace of New York.
Images courtesy of Maria Lysaker, Imagn Images.
