Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham side came out on Monday night knowing that three points against Leeds would put a huge dent in West Ham’s survival hopes.
One point separates these two clubs, but both are facing terrible games, in the last two weeks of the Premier League season.
Spurs are in 17th place with 37 points. West Ham are 18th out of 36. Worse, Tottenham have a game in hand and how the modern world will set up the final game.
De Zerbi has been clear that there is no room for complacency, even with the momentum behind him after defeating Wolves and Aston Villa in the past few weeks.
“We mustn’t forget what the situation was like before Wolves. It was a very sad situation and these memories should stay in our heads,” he said after Sunday’s 2-1 win at Villa Park.
“We have to stay focused on the next game.”
Permits to combat descent
If Tottenham can win at home to Leeds, they will move to 40 points with two games to go, against Chelsea and then Everton. West Ham sit in 36th place with two games to go against Newcastle and Leeds.
In that position, Spurs would need just one win from their last two games to ensure statistical survival. A win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, or at home to Everton on the final day, could put them in contention regardless of what West Ham do.
For West Ham to move on from that situation, they will need to win both of their remaining games and hope that Spurs will not take anything away from Chelsea and Everton.
If both of those things happen, the Hammers will finish two points clear of their London rivals.
If Spurs draw against Leeds
Tottenham move to 38 points, West Ham remain on 36, with two games each remaining. Both sides will need a win to feel anything close to safe. Spurs’ slip-up against Chelsea combined with West Ham’s win in Newcastle, will see the North London club back in the final.
If Spurs lose to Leeds
The gap between the two clubs remains at one place with two games remaining and the door is wide open for West Ham.
A win for West Ham against Newcastle combined with a loss for Spurs against Chelsea will see the Hammers jump into 17th place. From that position, any club can be relegated on the final day.
West Ham’s run
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side face Newcastle ahead of the final day’s match against Leeds. Newcastle have nothing to play for, but it is their last home game of the season.
Leeds are fighting for a top-half finish and have been one of the best teams in the division since Daniel Farke switched to a 3-5-2 in November.
Both games are winnable in theory. But West Ham have won just three league games since the end of February, and Sunday’s result at the London Stadium left deep psychological scars.
Callum Wilson’s stoppage time effort, which looked to have earned Arsenal a point, was disallowed after a VAR review confirmed that Pablo had fouled David Raya.
Tottenham’s run
After Leeds in the evening, Tottenham will face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge before hosting Everton on the final day. Chelsea had a terrible end to their season. Everton are still running in Europe. On paper, the run looks tougher than West Ham.
De Zerbi has changed the mood within the dressing room in a short period of time, and the likes of Joao Palhinha, on loan from Bayern Munich, and January signing Conor Gallagher, have contributed to the run.
Add in the expected return of James Maddison, who is rumored to finally get some minutes after recovering from an ACL injury, and Spurs could be sailing on their momentum.
Spurs’ fate is in their own hands. A win against Leeds and it could be enough to keep them waiting. Laugh tonight and the picture goes dark.
For West Ham, the math is simple. They need Spurs to slip up and win their remaining games.
At this chaotic time of year, very little can be removed. But if De Zerbi’s side take all three points at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday night, it will take something extraordinary for West Ham to escape.
