Rotation depth has been a problem for the Padres for years and last season didn’t do much to inspire confidence that 2026 will be any different. So far, the first group has passed, with Randy Vásquez stepping up to play a bigger role. That helped the Friars to a 20-13 start and could help next season if Vásquez can keep rolling.
By 2025, San Diego’s circulation was in the middle. Overall, their starters had a 4.07 earned run average, which ranks them 16th out of 30 major league clubs. At the trade deadline, they sent some depth. They scrolled Stephen Kolek again Ryan Bergert at Royals e Freddy Fermin trade. Braden Nett again Henry Baez went to Athletics e Mason Miller deal. At the end of the season, they lost Dylan Cease again Michael King in free agency. Yu Darvish required elbow surgery in November, canceling his 2026 season.
They were able to re-sign King but Cease left for the Blue Jays. The hope was that the Lord, Nick Pivetta again Joe Musgrove could be a solid trio ahead of the 2026 rotation. That would leave two spots open for guys like Vásquez, Walker Buehler, German Marquez, Matt Waldron again JP Sears.
That last team depends a lot on who the Padres would like. Musgrove has yet to feature this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in late 2024 and missed the entire 2025 campaign. A return to the mix for the first time in 2026 was expected but he has had setbacks and his timeline is unclear. Pivetta started four games before joining Musgrove in IL. Pivetta has a flexor strain and will likely miss several months.
As of a few weeks ago, there wasn’t much reason to expect Vásquez to separate himself from the rest of the pack. He posted a 3.84 ERA in 2025, but not by any means sustainable. He only struck out 13.7% of the batters he faced last year, just shy of average – it was one of the worst marks in baseball. Among pitchers with 130 innings pitched last year, only Antonio Senzatela again Erick Fedde they were inferior to Vásquez in that category. Both pitchers had ERAs well north of 5.00 and lost their rotation jobs last year.
The same could have happened to Vásquez if it weren’t for luck. First, he still had options, meaning the Padres could send him to the minors. Although his ERA was good, he was picked off a few times last year, suggesting the Padres weren’t overly confident in his results. His .261 batting average on balls in play and 77.4% strand rate were both on the lucky side. Ratings like his 4.85 FIP and his 5.43 SIERA suggested that his respectable ERA was magical.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Vásquez goes out and posts an ERA around 5.00 or 6.00 this year. Now out of options, his roster spot may have been in jeopardy. Instead, he went completely in the opposite direction.
Vásquez has a 2.94 ERA through six starts. Not only that, but this feels more real. His strikeout rate has risen to 24.8% so far this year, nearly double where it was last year. His walk rate and ground ball rate are roughly league average. It’s still a bit of luck, as Vásquez currently has an 81.5% strikeout rate, but his 3.44 FIP and 3.71 SIERA suggest he’ll be getting solid results even with neutral luck.
This is still a small sample of work but it is encouraging that it coincides with the changes in his arsenal, led by improvements with his four-seam fastball. Vásquez is throwing the pitch 31.2% of the time so far this year, a significant jump from last year’s 21% usage. The pitch averaged 94.8 miles per hour, up a full mile from last year’s 93.5 mph. His fielding rate has increased, and he’s getting more swing at it as well. He also threw a lot of cutters, curveballs, changeups and sliders, at the expense of his sinker and sweeper.
Time will tell if Vásquez can keep this up past the big sample. For now, it has cemented him in the rotation. Griffin Canning he just came back from the injured list over the weekend and there was never any question about Vásquez being ruled out, as he and King are considered the two keys to the rotation at the moment. Instead, speculation revolved around the Buehler, Waldron and Márquez trio, with Márquez eventually pitching to IL as Canning’s move. Lucas Giolito will be in the mix soon, but Vásquez won’t be in danger of losing his spot then.
In the long run, it will be great for the Padres if Vásquez can become a viable major league starter, even in the backfield. He can still be controlled for four seasons after the current campaign. He will likely be a Super Two, as his 1.129 service figure would put him within the previous cutoff. But with his salary going up in arbitration, it will be solid value if he has an ERA somewhere in the 3.00s.
The longtime San Diego rotation will still have question marks. King is signed through 2028 but has the option to opt out after each season of his deal. If he plays well, he will head to free agency. If he is injured or inactive and decides not to withdraw, that means he will be paid more than his market value. It is the same situation for Pivetta, who is also signed until 2028 with an exit after this year and next. Musgrove is currently a question mark. Even if he can come back and be his old self, he is only signed until 2027. Giolito, Canning, Buehler and Márquez are all free agents. Three of those guys have the same options for 2027 but it’s been a decade since one of those offers was triggered by either side. Waldron has the same window of club control as Vásquez but is out of options and not putting up good numbers, so he may not last long on the roster.
The farm won’t be able to provide solutions in the near term, as the Friars have traded aggressively from their pipeline to keep the league’s roster in good shape. They now have one of the worst farm systems in the division. Sears is 40-years-old but had an ERA over 5.00 in the majors last year and is 7.00 in Triple-A so far in 2026. He will be out of options next year. The club’s top prospects began to run Kash Mayfield, Miguel Mendez again Cruz Schoolcraft. Mendez has yet to reach Triple-A and has only made ten Double-A starts thus far. Mayfield is in High-A, Schoolcraft in Low-A.
It seems fair to expect the Padres to look for a free agent starter in the upcoming offseasons. Perhaps the incoming ownership group will flash more spending to strengthen the workforce, but there are no guarantees about how they will spend. Having Vásquez safely in the transfer window, even if not up front, will make the front office’s job much easier as they steer the club into the future.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
