“It seems that time has changed in my favor,” said the man, cutting through the veil of silence he had covered himself with. The luxurious, powerful growth in her mouth twitched and parted again as its owner gave himself a moment of almost ecstatic satisfaction. “Those worthy of my desires have revealed themselves at last, and now I am forced to do nothing but grind the desires of my enemies into pale dust,” he said as he walked into the unadorned darkness, thrusting his fingers into evil victory.
At least, that’s what happened in the disturbed mind of Dan Szymborski, who wants to know the months in which Lucas Giolito will end up in 2026. Since the end of the offseason, Giolito unsigned, has been a source of speculation as a great Plan B whenever a pitcher is lost due to injury, almost as if he is lying in wait. These rumors finally came to light on Wednesday, as the San Diego Padres signed him to a one-year contract with an option for the 2027 season.
If Giolito expected a good fit, a team where he would make a big impact, he was right to join the Padres. In fact, because of the rumors that had already existed, I had begun to write a slightly different piece before the truth was unreasonably disturbed; In it, I used ZiPS to estimate his effect on the playoff chances of each team in baseball. And the Padres just ranked number one in Giolito’s intended ZiPS impact, with their playoff odds going from 55% to 65% when he gets it, ahead of the Cubs (+8.1%), Athletics (+7.9%), Astros (+6.9%), and Braves (+6.4%), in terms of size.
San Diego’s rotation was solid in 2026, with a 3.53 ERA in the first few starts, and a 2.4 WAR, which ranked eighth in baseball. But there were risks the front office could not ignore. While there’s more reason to be optimistic about Randy Vásquez now that his changeup and curveball seem to have transitioned to whiff mechanics, Nick Pivetta’s injury was the most unwelcome news for the team’s depth. Right now, it looks like Pivetta’s flexibility won’t require season-ending surgery, but he won’t be back anytime soon.
Pivetta’s injury left the Padres to battle the Dodgers for the NL West title with no margin of error in their rotation. Before his injury, they were already looking at Walker Buehler, who is a big risk to sign with them on a minor league contract, and Germán Márquez, who has not been healthy since 2021. Griffin Canning is coming back from a significant Achilles injury and has not been out since June, and there is no firm timetable for John Mugro’s Joe surgery. Yu Darvish certainly won’t be back in 2026, or possibly. Keeping up with the Dodgers is no easy task, so there are plenty of wins to allow while you wait and hope for good injury news in one of these ways.
The simple truth about Giolito is that he is clearly not the pitcher he was when he received Cy Young votes each year from 2019 to 2021. If he was, he probably would have signed a contract north of $150 million in the offseason, instead of waiting to become the foundation of a needy contender. However, last year represented a successful comeback season, as he missed 2024 with internal brace surgery to repair his UCL. Giolito previously underwent full Tommy John surgery immediately after being drafted in the first round by the Nationals in 2012, and those elbow questions contributed to his fall to the 16th pick.
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It is true that last season was a success for Giolito’s return, but there are important caveats to that statement. His 3.41 ERA in 26 starts was certainly solid, but dark things lurked in his closer numbers. His FIP was a mediocre 4.17, and his 7.5 K/9 represented a 20% drop from his 2022-2023 numbers and third from his peak. Statcast’s xERA wasn’t very good, giving him a 5.01 for 2025, and even though the ZiPS version was kind, a zERA of 4.55 wasn’t something for a top agent. The goal here isn’t to add an ace — though I don’t think San Diego would object if they traded away their best years — but to get an arm that can throw league-average innings. And I think the Padres have a good chance to get that.
ZiPS Projection – Lucas Giolito
| A year | W | L | S | The ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4.31 | 26 | 26 | 137.7 | 134 | 66 | 20 | 53 | 124 | 95 | 1.5 |
| 2027 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4.39 | 22 | 22 | 110.7 | 107 | 54 | 16 | 42 | 98 | 93 | 1.1 |
The co-op option has real value for the Padres. If Giolito does well, he’ll be ready for their rotation next season if Michael King takes advantage of his option. (The exact value of Giolito’s option hasn’t been made public.) It’s hard to quantify this kind of thing, but at least it’s good that signing Giolito also removes him as an option if the Dodgers or another contender, like the Cubs, find themselves in deep, rotational trouble.
Does signing Giolito significantly change the story of the 2026 San Diego Padres? Maybe not, but he’s a supporting character, and if the Padres can topple the Big Blue Empire in their seventh try and capture the NL West crown, he’ll likely play a role in writing that happy ending.
