There’s a reason we saved the Tigers for last in this series. On paper, they look like one of the better teams in the open American League. Into the season, ZIPS saw the Tigers as favorites in the AL Central, giving them 86 wins. So far, their difference of +28 favors them it should play at a pace of 86 wins, according to Pythagorean winning percentage. The playoffs are different for both FanGraphs again Baseball Prospectus they also work under the assumption that Detroit will play at an 86-win pace for the rest of the season. In other words, uthis looked like a playoff-caliber team earlier in the year. Over the past four months, they’ve scored and prevented the run at the pace of a playoff-caliber team. Prediction systems remain convinced that the Tigers are as strong as ever.
However, a week from the trade deadline, the Tigers are 50-56. They will need to sweep both of their next series to be at .500 by the deadline. They are only six games back in their division and 3.5 games back of the Wild Card spot, but several other teams stand in their way. Their postseason chances sit at 32.6% on FanGraphs and 28.7% on Baseball Prospectus. Those aren’t insurmountable odds, but statistics say you’d have better luck betting on a coin than Tigers POBO Scott Harris would bet on his team to make the playoffs.
Of course, Detroit knows as well as anyone how much can change during the final months of the season. In 2024, the Tigers pulled off an incredible comeback. Their odds of qualifying according to FanGraphs were 1% at the deadline. Two months later, they earned a Wild Card berth. The following year, they had to watch the Rangers pull off a remarkable feat to steal the AL Central crown. Can the Tigers really stop now with their nearly one-in-three odds?
Another reason they might think so is that they are sitting on one of the most valuable rental chips in trade deadline history. Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball and a free agent at the end of the season. It is unlikely that he will re-sign with Detroit. So, Harris has to decide if he should make one last run to the World Series with Skubal leading the way or if he’d rather trade the two-time Cy Young winner for a package of players who can help the team in the future. And the tough decisions don’t end there.
Keeping Skubal doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t trade. Selling him doesn’t mean they won’t be buying anymore. Really, Harris and the Tigers have four different options going forward. They can all come in and throw in the towel. But they could also cash in on Skubal’s trade value without paying outright in 2026. Ultimately, they could keep Skubal but trade other, less impactful veterans to try to get under the luxury tax.
With all those options to consider, it’s not that easy to plan this team in “buy mode” or “sell mode.” However, let’s start by talking about the major league pieces the Tigers could trade. Considering their sub-.500 record and their salary just over the starting CBT limit, at least some level of trade is likely.
Record: 50-56 (32.6% playoff chance, per FanGraphs)
For the rest of our Trade Deadline Outlook series, check out this post.
Sell Mode
Potential Free Agents: Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, Kenley Jansen (club option), Drew Anderson (club option), Jake Rogers, Justin Verlander
Regulated Exchanges: Kyle Finnegan, The Will Vest, Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson
Subsea Contracts: Javier Baez
Skubal for Everything
It’s rare for a pitcher like Skubal to be traded at the last minute. What little example there is shows why the Tigers can command a bounty on their ace. There was Max Scherzer to the Dodgers in 2021. David Price to the Blue Jays in 2015. Cliff Lee for the Rangers in 2010 and the Phillies in 2009. CC Sabathia for the Brewers in 2008. None of those Cy Young winners came cheap, but all of those jobs worked for the teams that got them. The Dodgers won what was then a franchise record 106 games. The Blue Jays captured their first Wild Card division title. The Rangers advanced to the World Series for the first time in their history. The Phillies won their second NL in a row. The Brewers ended a 26-year drought. Each of those players contributed to his new team’s success, too The Skubal still reigns today as well as any of those pitchers when they were sold.
So far, the Astros, Rays, and Brewers have been publicly linked to Skubal, but every contender should give the Tigers a call. The Cubs, Braves, and Diamondbacks all need starting pitching. The Dodgers, Yankees, or Phillies could look to build a big rotation. Never count the Padres out when it comes to big trades. Even the mariners, with their known remnant of beginners, should not be ignored. Skubal is good like that.
This is why Scott Harris is faced with such a difficult decision. If he hangs on to Skubal and Detroit misses the playoffs anyway, he’ll be missing out on a franchise-altering return. Even if the Tigers get to October, it’s worth wondering how far they’ll have to go before keeping Skubal will be worth it. Would a third straight ALDS exit be good enough?
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