Zen and the Art of Fantasy Baseball: “Is it?” – Taking Advantage of Early Season Overreaction

Zen Time:

Zen koans are anecdotes, often strange in nature, that were often used by Zen monks as a way to get the clergy to abandon the thinking they rely on – and protect themselves from – in favor of complete openness to any moment (or teaching). Koans are difficult and confusing – by design, I would think. For many in the Zen world, meditating on koans is an important part of the practice.

One of my favorite koans is called “Is That So?”:

ZEN MASTER Hakuin was praised by his neighbors as a person who lived a clean life.

A beautiful Japanese girl whose parents owned a restaurant lived next door. Suddenly, without warning, her parents found out she was pregnant. This angered his parents. He would not admit who this man was, but after much torture he finally gave the name Hakuin.

In great anger, the parent went to the king. “That’s right?” was all he had to say.

After the child was born it was brought to Hakuin. By this time he had lost his dignity, which did not bother him, but he took very good care of the child. He got milk from his neighbors and everything the little one needed.

After a year the girl-mother could no longer. She told her parents the truth – the child’s real father was a young man who worked in a fish market.

The girl’s mother and father immediately went to Hakuin to ask for his forgiveness, apologize for a long time, and give the child back again.

Hakuin was determined. When he allowed the child, all he said was: “Is that so?” (Zen Meat, Zen Bones 26-7)

What does this koan mean? Well, in my opinion in Zen practice or any other lineage of Buddhism, accepting someone else’s understanding of a koan defeats the entire purpose of pondering its meaning. In other words, I don’t know what it means and it shouldn’t be up to him as the person to answer.

In my research, what I think it means (at least as I understand it today, in this moment) has to do with how much is beyond our control. But since we cannot understand the final karmic outcome of any event, the one thing that controls us reacts equally, no matter how good or bad we perceive it to be.

Simple enough, right? That’s right.

How in the world does this work in fantasy baseball?

‘Time to overreact. As I write this, we are eleven days into the 2026 season. For most teams, that means they play eight games, and a few play nine – so, about 5% of the season. That means we had enough time to not read anything.

But we’re so excited for opening day baseball that we can’t convince ourselves that this minute sample makes sense, so you’ll see many fantasy managers overreact to starters. Sometimes, the best response we can have to a fellow manager’s decision about a player is, “Really?” If we can maintain balance in these first few weeks while others around us panic, perhaps there is potential value in a trade or, in some cases where management has really tilted, a waiver call.

Here are two players I look out for, in case a manager’s anxiety leads them to make unwise decisions:

Julio Rodriguez

Here are a few numbers to consider:

And here are a few more numbers to consider:

** In IL for significant parts of July and August 2024

What do you see above?

I see a slow starter finding a way in the second half of the season to run big hot streaks. So, his .147 BA and 0 HR, 3 R, 1 RBI, and 0 SB nine games in 2026 don’t bother me at all. Even his low 34.8 HH% and low maxEV (107.9 mph) don’t give me the slightest doubt about the player we all know is an absolute beast.

But basically every year, I see fantasy managers freak out after J-Rod puts together an April with a BA under .250 and a HR under 5 – as he does every year. If you hear someone in your league bashing Rodriguez and frustrated by his lack of production, just remember:

“That’s right?”

And then you might want to follow up with, “How about this Rodriguez offer?” Obviously, I’m not suggesting ridiculously low-ball offers, but if there’s a discount to be had, take advantage.

Brenton Doyle

Before the season, I wrote about my love for Doyle, and I talked about it a lot on the air. Cards and Sections and Mike Couillard. You may have noticed Doyle’s terrible start to the season: .148 BA, 34.5% K%, 0 HR, 3 R, 0 RBI, and 1 SB in eight games. Not good.

I have trouble worrying too much about his slow start, though: He seems to be pushing. When he hits the ball he hits it hard, but he swings at almost anything. His strikeout% is an abysmal 62.2%, which is inconsistent with his career numbers (down 9% from his career low). He also has an O-Swing% of 37.5%, about 8% higher than his last two years and 7.1% higher than his career mark. And since he’s always out of the area, how much contact does he have when he’s out? Not much – 22.2%, which seems to be important 21% below his career mark!

He had a tough year last year, and it’s understandable that he wants to speed things up this season. It won’t take him long to realize that he can’t hit 8-run homers, and if he does, I think he’ll be fine. His Contact% is under 90%, which shows that he can still hit the ball. His 41.2% HH% and more importantly his batting velocity increased by 1.2 mph makes it clear that when he starts hitting the ball, the ball will go far. Right now, the Colorado copper doesn’t know where to hit him on the list — he’s mostly hit on the 7-hole or 8-hole, but on Saturday, April 4, he hit on the 2-hole. They know you are searching. I suspect they also know that he will soon find his game.

This guy is a good player, and he will put it together. But in fantasy leagues, expect to see him on your waiver wire soon, especially on 12 teams. In the minor leagues, he might already be on the phone. If I see him demoted to a team with 10 teams or less, I’ll keep an eye on him until he goes the right way to sacrifice another roster spot (since a 10-team league will have All-Star level programs everywhere you look). But if he was thrown into a 12 or 15 team league, my answer would be simple:

“That’s right?”

And then I will exalt him and reap the rewards. Presumably, most fantasy managers would resist overreacting to J-Rod, but Doyle is another story. If you see him available, I’ll go get him.

Now is the time of year to take advantage of the impatience of other managers – but we can only do so if we maintain our own patience and equanimity. As good players struggle, they may have suddenly forgotten how to play baseball. We should also not forget how we play our game. Accept the gift with “Is that right?” and enjoy.

Until next week. – Hamley