The US Open returns to Shinnecock Hills for the sixth time in its history from June 18-21, but who will reach the event on one of America’s toughest tracks for glory in this year’s Major Championship semi-finals?
The last time the US Open was held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in 2018 no player managed to finish under seven, with Brooks Koepka winning his second US Open title with a +1 score in four rounds.
It’s safe to say, Shinnecock Hills, located on the breezy northern tip of Long Island in New York, near the Atlantic Ocean, is a brutal test and provides a thorough test of every part of a golfer’s skill set.
Koepka was only the third player to successfully defend the US Open, following Ben Hogan in 1951 and Curtis Strange in 1989, after his win in 2017, so JJ Spaun, who lifted the title in 2025, will have his career cut out if he wants to join that elite group, while Koepka, who is working his way back to his golf life in Pyear-V next Golf is struggling to recapture the form that saw him claim the number 1 spot in 2018.
Although Koepka deserves all the accolades for his display, all the brickbats in the 2018 US Open were handed out by the United States Golf Association, the organizers of the tournament, who clearly and erroneously misread the condition of the course, as well as the weather, when setting up the pegs for the first three days.
With wind gusts of up to 25mph on the opening day, Shinnecock’s already fast greens were turned into skating rinks, and with flags placed on hills and near-misses, the times made the world’s top players look like weekend pirates. Rory McIlroy and Jason Day both ended their hopes on the first day with rounds of 80.
The USGA will be under pressure not to make the same mistake this time and judging by the briefings given to tournament officials prior to this year’s tournament they will be running the clock almost every minute on the course before and throughout the tournament to make sure things don’t go as they have for the past eight years.
John Bodenhamer, the USGA’s chief tournament officer, said that they have moved away from their obsession with being the ‘right point’ of the US Open, and that they want to give players the opportunity to attack and continue to attack rather than seeing players simply looking to minimize their mistakes. “We want to let Shinnecock be Shinnecock,” he said, vaguely.
BIG SIGNS, SMALL GREEN
With that in mind, the USGA aims to keep the green speed around 11-11.5 on the stimpmeter, which is still fast, but not fast, and while conditions will be firm and fast over the weekend, they will carefully monitor the humidity levels to ensure that the putting surfaces do not become crusty, as they did in 2018.
Another big change is the width of the fairways. Back in 2018, many were called ‘bacon strips’, thin and crisp, some as thick as 20 yards, and this time the fairways have been extended by six yards to average 48 yards, compared to the previous 42 yards, giving players a much better chance of a decent lie when shooting.
That said, players will still need to be on point if they want to hit well, as they will need to find the right parts of the fairway to attack the pins and find the right part of Shinnecock’s tricky greens to hunt for eagles and birdies. If you miss the fairway you are likely to be in five inch deep fescue, which will make it difficult to drive the ball forward, while you are offline more than eight feet and in a knee-deep situation and a world of trouble.
With a par-70 course that measures 7,440 yards, distance will, as ever, be an important part of any potential arsenal, especially given the style of the greens, which do not take well to the low-trajectory second shot, but those likely to succeed will be direct hitters who can control both their spin and the flight of the ball. Expect players to play a lot of bump-and-run shots, so mastery of all aspects of the wedge game will be necessary to score well.
CAN SCOTTIE COMPLETE THE SLAM?
With that in mind, it won’t be surprising to find out Scottie Schefflera master at controlling distances with his instruments, the head of many betting markets, with Betway putting the world number 1 at 11-2. Scheffler, who celebrates his 30th birthday on Sunday’s US Open, will have the chance to complete a career grand slam at Shinnecock, having already held the Masters in 2022 and 2024, as well as the PGA Championship and The Open in 2025.
Should he win at Shinnecock, Scheffler would become only the seventh player to win four majors and join Tiger Woods as the only player since 1960 to do so in the first round. Rory McIlroy – who is 9-1 to follow up his 2011 US Open victory – had to wait 11 years for a final leg at last year’s Masters, while Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player each waited three years to complete a Major grand slam.
Scheffler fans may be upset that he hasn’t won in five months, meaning a real drought for a man who has won 20 PGA Tour titles through 2022. However, his form statistics since his win at The American Express in January – 3, 4, 12, 24, 22, 2, 2, 2 – 2 – 2 – 2020. His US Open form is also respectable. He finished second in 2022 at The Country Club, tied for seventh at Torrey Pines in 2021, and was in contention at Los Angeles in 2023, so he clearly has the game to win the US Open and is not afraid of tough courses.
TOMMY’S TIME TO SHINE
Someone with game, and form, of course Tommy Fleetwood. The Southport slugger was 27 when he made the world sit up and take notice when he finished fourth at Erin Hills in 2017. And he nearly pulled off a smash and grab at Shinnecock in 2018 when he shot a final-round 63 to take the clubhouse lead only beaten by Koepka.
Eight birdies and one bogey added up to a record-equalling US Open score, and if it weren’t for his last-minute bogey from eight feet in 62, Fleetwood might be the one with the trophy on his shelf. However, it was not to be, and her bid for the maiden title was cut short.
Since then, Tommy has missed three cuts in the last US Open renewal, but finished fifth in 2023, and his victory in the 2025 FedEx Cup and his incredibly consistent form this season – six top 10s – make his current 20-1 odds tempting.
Some recent US Open winners Jon Rahm (12-1) and Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1) also makes a lot of appeal, with the latter maintaining a rich vein of form over the past two seasons, and the world no.4 has missed just two cuts in his last 22 majors.
However, my clear investment choices for each method are up to you Xander Schauffele (20-1), his US Open CV makes for impressive reading, with the 32-year-old American having never finished worse than 14th.th in nine attempts. After winning the PGA and the Open in 2024, he has had top-10s in four of the last six majors and is clearly at the point in his career where he is saving his best efforts for major events.
Some long odds players who make the appeal include Wyndham Clark (33-1), who won the US Open in 2023, and who won the PGA Championship last month Aaron Rai he shouldn’t be sent off at 66-1 now that he knows he really belongs in big company. A straight hitter with a hot putter is clearly someone to sit on the right side of.
LATEST OPEN GAME ODDS – THROUGH BETWAY
Scottie Scheffler 11/2
Rory McIlroy 9/1
Jon Rahm 12/1
Cameron Young 14/1
B DeChambeau 16/1
Ludwig Aberg 18/1
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
Xander Schauffele 20/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
Brooks Koepka 25/1
Justin Rose 33/1
Justin Thomas 33/1
Tyrrell Hatton 33/1
Wyndham Clark 33/1
Viktor Hovland 40/1
Collin Morikawa 40/1
Chris Gotterup 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Robert MacIntyre 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Jordan Speith 50/1
Others 50/1 or more (1/4 maximum odds in 5 places)
The US Open Championship will air on Sky Sports Golf from June 18-21. For a full schedule of live coverage, visit skysports.com. In all the latest US Open Championship betting unusual, visit Betway.
