Project Kirby Dach’s Next Contract With Canadiens – Hockey Writers – Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens and Kirby Dach are headed for some interesting contract negotiations this summer. After extending a qualifying offer worth $4 million through the 2026-27 season, the Canadiens regained control of the restricted free agent, but Dach chose not to sign the offer and instead filed for salary waivers.

Although arbitration often sounds like the beginning of bad negotiations, it does not necessarily mean that the relationship between the player and the team is bad. In fact, most cases are settled before trial. However, with Dach’s injury history and inconsistent production, finding something similar won’t be easy.

Current Situation

By giving Dach his $4 million qualifying offer, the Canadiens ensured they would retain his rights while giving themselves time to negotiate a longer deal. Dach, on the other hand, opted for arbitration instead of accepting a one-year eligibility offer.

That decision is not surprising. From a player’s point of view, accepting a qualifying offer will lock him out for one season with no future guarantees. Asking for arbitration gives him another way to get a contract that may better reflect what he believes his worth is.

The Canadiens also have a tough test to make. Dach remains one of the most talented players on the roster when healthy. At 6-foot-4 with excellent puck skills and playmaking ability, he still has the upside that made him the first pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft.

The problem is availability and consistency. Injuries have often hampered his development, making it difficult for Montreal to determine what role he will play in the next few seasons. During the Canadiens’ playoff run, Dach found himself playing a fourth-line role, producing five points in 19 games. While he contributed in certain situations, he wasn’t the offensive difference maker that many hoped he would be.

What Could the New Deal Look Like?

If the Canadiens and Dach reach an agreement before the dispute, the most logical outcome may be a short-term bridge contract.

A two- or three-year agreement gives both parties exactly what they need. Montreal avoids making big money later on a player who has yet to establish himself as a top-six forward, while Dach gets a chance to prove he can stay healthy and rebuild his value before negotiating another contract. Financially, something like $3.5 million a year seems reasonable.

The Canadiens have already shown they’re comfortable paying $4 million in one season for a qualifying offer, but stretching that number over multiple years is extremely risky when you consider Dach’s injury history. On the other hand, Dach likely believes he deserves more protection than a one-year qualifying offer while betting on his own production.

In Montreal, it limits long-term risk while maintaining salary cap flexibility as several stars continue to develop in the organization. For Dach, it provides stability and enough time to re-establish himself as a key member of the Canadiens’ core. In the end, this is still a player with an interesting title. If he finally enjoys a healthy stretch and returns to playing a top-six role, the $3.5 million cap hit could be an immediate boon.

Mediation May Be the Most Likely Outcome

Although a pre-trial settlement remains a possibility, arbitration still appears to be the most likely scenario. Neither side has an obvious incentive to compromise too much. Dach will understandably argue that his talent and power justify the higher salary, while the Canadiens will point to his lack of production, limited role in playing time and long injury history. An independent mediator may ultimately be the best person to resolve the dispute.

From Montreal’s perspective, that may not be a bad thing. Arbitration takes most of the emotion out of negotiations and generates salary based on similar players, recent production and overall value. It also prevents Canadians from feeling pressured into overpaying based on what is likely.

There’s still a lot of talent there, and the Canadiens haven’t given up on him. However, at this point in his career, production should exceed expectations. Until Dach proves he can stay on the roster and contribute offensively, Montreal has every reason to remain cautious about his long-term commitment.

Whether the two sides settle in advance or let an arbitrator make a decision, the priority for the Canadiens should remain the same, getting a contract that rewards Dach in return without putting the organization at unnecessary risk. Given everything we’ve seen over the past few seasons, that balance will be key to settling this conversation.