Six weeks ago, the Marlins looked like one of the league’s few underdogs. They’ve been baseball’s best team since early June, going 24-8 to go eight games over .500 for the first time in three years. The win over Seattle last night was their fourth in a row and moved them two games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot.
Baseball Reference gives the Marlins a 58% chance of clinching the first playoff spot starting in 2023. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both put it just north of 40%. While it still seems unlikely that they will get past the more talented rosters in Atlanta and Philadelphia to win the NL East, they have moved up to within three games of the division and are firmly in the Wild Card picture.
For many bubble teams, their performance in the next month is a big factor in how the front office will approach the deadline. Miami has a moderately tough schedule leading up to August 3. They have two more against the Mariners and will close out the first half of the season with a home set against the Rangers. They will make trips to Milwaukee and Houston coming off the All-Star Break, then host the Padres and Phillies to close out July. They will play a four-game set in Queens against a struggling Mets team as they lead up to the deadline.
If they still have cap space at the end of July, it seems fair to expect the front office to add. A bad month could bring the scale back to a standstill or decent sales, though they’re clearly beyond the rebuilding phase of Peter Bendix’s time running baseball operations. Let’s go over both possible outcomes depending on the team’s performance over the next few weeks.
Record: 50-42 (41% playoffs, FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Starter, senior reliever, third base, right-handed bat
Rotation
While the Marlins have rebuilt their bullpen especially around pitching, they still find themselves in need of more arms to take the next step. They trade Jesus Luzardo, Ryan Weathers again Edward Cabrera – who seem to be more concerned about the risk of injury than any pressing financial reasons. Their top two hopes for a stop, Thomas White again Robby Snellingdecreased this year. Snelling is actually done for the season after elbow surgery, while White has a shoulder injury and appears unlikely to make his MLB debut before 2027.
Max Meyer again Sandy Alcantara were two constants in circulation. Meyer, a former third-round pick, has emerged and is at the top of the rotation. Alcantara is no longer a Cy Young contender but he is still an above-average starter and still works as deep in games as any pitcher in the league. Eury Pérez he made a quick comeback from a gracilis (thigh) strain and still has some of the best stuff in MLB.
It’s the top three. Trades and injuries have tested the depth. Tyler Phillips it moved from long relief into rotation. He’s done an impressive job overall but has a 5.24 ERA and a 15% strikeout rate as a starter. It would be great for him to be in a swing role. The Marlins will find out Janson Junk back from shin swelling tomorrow. That would give them a full rotation, but one injury would force them back to a depth option like that Ryan Gusto or Braxton Garrett (the latter of whom the club clearly doesn’t trust despite his solid Triple-A numbers).
Can Meyer and Pérez be trusted to stay healthy for the rest of the season? The former has bowled 108 innings. He has never thrown more than 111 frames in a minor league or MLB season and managed 64 2/3 innings last year before requiring season-ending hip surgery. Pérez’s career record is appalling; he has never reached 100 innings in a professional season and is 79 2/3 this year. Miami has a strong system in place to monitor his career starting as they pull him into a 92-pitch perfect-game bid on Sunday.
“We’re looking to play beyond the regular season, and Eury will be an important part of that,” manager Clayton McCullough said after the game (link posted by Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “He’s been really going on today, and I totally get it; and there’s a part of my heart that’s concerned about his chance to go on, but I think I have to think about Eury, individually, and our organization, our team, and what’s going on going forward to give us a chance to keep winning games.
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