Usually, I try to emulate Gray with a funny, witty, level 2 intro, but all those effects are intros. That’s why Gray is a goat. Fortunately, the universe gave me everything this week. Jam On It was, is, and will remain until The Jam. And so it is Mauricio Dubon fans must have felt at the beginning of the season. Probably credited for most of his eligibility, Dubon has done things in baseball and been added to the major leagues because of his production. What a time to live! Let’s see if Dubon will have the staying power of Nucleus, or will he be another Mil Vanilli?
Mauricio Dubon is 31 years old, 5-foot-11, 173 pounds, and bats right-handed. The Boston Red Sox selected him in the 26th round of the 2013 MLB draft. After three seasons, he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. Three years after that, he was sent to the San Francisco Giants. The Houston Astros got him….class? Yes, three years later. Last year, after another three years, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves.
Early in his minor league career, Dubon showed excellent plate discipline with stolen base skills. He often hit in the high-.200s and topped .300 many times. Steal at least 30 bases three times. There was little power, however, as he never hit double-digit home runs, but the strikeout rate was usually 15% or less.
In 2019 at Triple-A with the Brewers and Giants, Dubon scored 20 runs in 539 plate appearances while maintaining a 12.6% strikeout rate. ISO was .175.
Mauricio Dubon made his MLB debut in 2020 with the Giants, hitting .274/.337/.389 with an 8.5% walk rate, 20.3% strikeout rate, and .115 ISO in 177 plate appearances. Throughout his MLB career, the strikeout rate was often young, but he didn’t take many walks or show much power or speed. Dubon played about 135 games on the season, and his ISO was around .100.
In 11 games and 42 plate appearances to start this season, Dubon is slashing .350/.381/.575 with a 4.8% walk rate, a 19% strikeout rate, and a .225 ISO! He has hit two home runs, scored seven runs, and driven in seven.
First, the BABIP is .400, so Dubon got lucky. That will reverse, which will lower the slash. The walk rate is good for work practices, but the strikeout rate is high. With growing power, it’s not too surprising.
The Statcast numbers are illuminating, as the average exit velocity is 91.1 mph! Career average is 85.9 mph. The barrel rate of 12.5% is a high performance in significant amounts, as it has never been above 4.5% before.
Has the method changed?
GB/FB remains the same, but he pulls the ball less. His strikeout rate is 40.6% this season after being in the mid-30s for most of his MLB career. The launch angle is 10.2 degrees, lower than the 13.2 degree mark.
Looking at the plate behavior numbers, he chases fewer pitches and throws less in general. His overall swing average is 47.3% after being in the mid-50s the past five seasons. A 63.5% swing rate in the strike zone is well below the 74% rate. There has been no increase in bat speed, and it sits at a meh 69.4 mph.
I can’t get behind this hot start by Mauricio Dubon. Maybe if the pull rate was over 50%, with an increase in both launch angle and bat speed. That said, I’ve read that football this season might be “more fun,” so maybe that allows the Dubons of the world to keep getting more chicks, but I highly doubt it. If a roster spot is available, I wouldn’t mind taking a shot, and multi-position (OF/2B/3B/SS) suitability is important, but I’ll keep my expectations in check.
